October Banter

[yoda]

Wizards in their first 3 games this season

 

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks for the initial thoughts on places slightly north, all. My wife has made it to the next round of interviews, so a little less theoretical than it was.  Would Taneytown or Union Mills areas also be a good target snow-wise? The place she is interviewing is in PA north of Frederick and we would be looking to split the difference between there and Baltimore eventually. Hoff convinced me some time ago (without knowing it) that for snow lovers it's worth the commute to live where chances are better, so if she gets this gig (still a few interview rounds to go), it would let me scratch that itch maybe.

[smokeybandit]

Penn State's Weather World turns 35

 

https://www.pennlive.com/expo/life-and-culture/erry-2018/10/5f3d97a68447/penn-states-weather-world-turn.html

[Chris78]

8 hours ago, yoda said:

Wizards in their first 3 games this season

 

There awful..... but atleast we still have the caps! Haha

[ravensrule]

10 hours ago, yoda said:

Wizards in their first 3 games this season

 

The OT win didn't satisfy you?.

[nj2va]

10 hours ago, yoda said:

Wizards in their first 3 games this season

 

I can't keep track of which teams you like.  Wiz, Penguins, Rangers, and Dolphins?

[yoda]

41 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

The OT win didn't satisfy you?.

Lucky win with the Porter block to end the game... don't forget Wall missed 2 FTs late in OT as well.

Team should be 3-0... but cant hold on to leads.  The Miami loss was disappointing, Toronto we had them and let them off the hook... last night against Portland if Morris didn't start raining 3s near the end of the 4th quarter into OT would have been another close loss.

[yoda]

31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I can't keep track of which teams you like.  Wiz, Penguins, Rangers, and Dolphins?

Wizards, Penguins, Texas Rangers, Redskins

[ravensrule]

9 hours ago, nj2va said:

I can't keep track of which teams you like.  Wiz, Penguins, Rangers, and Dolphins?

I have gone through this for years with him. It makes no sense. I’m a Red Sox, Warriors, LA Rams and Capitals fan.

[ravensrule]

9 hours ago, yoda said:

Lucky win with the Porter block to end the game... don't forget Wall missed 2 FTs late in OT as well.

Team should be 3-0... but cant hold on to leads.  The Miami loss was disappointing, Toronto we had them and let them off the hook... last night against Portland if Morris didn't start raining 3s near the end of the 4th quarter into OT would have been another close loss.

I hear you. It doesn’t help that Howard is a sissy sitting out with a strained ass. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

For the bird watchers on here...

Noticed some migratory ducks (Buffleheads) out on the Patapsco River. Seems early.

[Jebman]

I would sell my soul for a chance to hit up Rt 9 this weekend.

This East Coast storm is gonna be interesting.

South Texas is getting drowned by incessant rain lol. Lake Travis down here is so high it is ridiculous.

Later this winter we will get storms here in Texas then the moisture will ride the subtrop jet into the Mid Atlantic, where it will all fall and pile up in the form of snow, snow after snow after snow. You had best tune up your snow blowers. You are going to get so damn much snow in Washington DC that you will get sick and tired of shoveling.

 

All this rain down here in south TX is definitely not normal. I was in Dale City til Aug 23 this year, and I will tell you, in all of the fifty years I have been in northern Virginia, I know that all that rain we had in north VA this spring and summer was definitely not normal. Something is up with the weather. That infamous March windstorm was definitely not normal either. Lots of ppl in Dale City were saying that something was very, alarmingly WRONG with the weather this past summer. It was not just in the US either. It has been happening all over the world.

This upcoming winter is going to be unprecedented, likely  tremendous amounts of rain and snow and wind. I noticed before I left N VA in late Aug, that the powerline crews were clearing everything under the powerlines. Even they know something is definitely up with the weather. This is our meteorological New Normal.

 

[North Balti Zen]

I have a question re: the weeklies and people's use of them.

When people get happy or sad about the weeklies, or optimistic or pessimistic, or bullish or cautious, I guess I wonder at any reaction, as my understanding is that the weeklies are spun off of one particular run of a particular model. I am not making much sense, maybe, and this is hard to communicate. If the modeled conditions change from one run to the next, won't the weeklies then change significantly based on that? I guess I am wondering what people really can take away from them. Some of the good posters on here really look to them, perhaps as one more tool, but I see a lot of reaction to them that seems like folks are taking them for more than a tool (and a changeable tool at that).

I guess I don't have a point. Carry on.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I have a question re: the weeklies and people's use of them.

When people get happy or sad about the weeklies, or optimistic or pessimistic, or bullish or cautious, I guess I wonder at any reaction, as my understanding is that the weeklies are spun off of one particular run of a particular model. I am not making much sense, maybe, and this is hard to communicate. If the modeled conditions change from one run to the next, won't the weeklies then change significantly based on that? I guess I am wondering what people really can take away from them. Some of the good posters on here really look to them, perhaps as one more tool, but I see a lot of reaction to them that seems like folks are taking them for more than a tool (and a changeable tool at that).

I guess I don't have a point. Carry on.

The weeklies are another tool, and IMO have limited use if looking at one run in isolation. As you said, they are based off of a single (0z) run, and as expected, can offer some variations from run to run. I like to look at 2-3 consecutive runs, and especially if we are currently in a stable pattern, they can provide some hints about where the overall pattern is headed beyond day 15. When I make reference to them in the disco thread, I try my best to give an objective overview- mostly the 500 mb height pattern- and compare to previous run(s). Sure you can also have a bit of fun with it- I mean looking out beyond 30 days is always fwiw. Not sure anyone should have too much of an emotional investment in what any run of the weeklies is depicting though lol.

[Wonderdog]

Nice parade of storms coming up in the next ten days or so. Hopefully in January we still have an active storm period.

[WxUSAF]

Registered for the skywarn basic class!

[yoda]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Registered for the skywarn basic class!

I last went two years ago... so I hope that my skywarn spotter ID is still viable... i have only sent in a few reports though tbh

[mappy]

12 hours ago, yoda said:

I last went two years ago... so I hope that my skywarn spotter ID is still viable... i have only sent in a few reports though tbh

it should be -- i went years ago (Fozz and I were in the same class, with Eskimo Joe there to help out) and my ID still works just fine. 

[psuhoffman]

On 10/23/2018 at 8:09 AM, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks for the initial thoughts on places slightly north, all. My wife has made it to the next round of interviews, so a little less theoretical than it was.  Would Taneytown or Union Mills areas also be a good target snow-wise? The place she is interviewing is in PA north of Frederick and we would be looking to split the difference between there and Baltimore eventually. Hoff convinced me some time ago (without knowing it) that for snow lovers it's worth the commute to live where chances are better, so if she gets this gig (still a few interview rounds to go), it would let me scratch that itch maybe.

Taneytown does much better then Baltimore but it is west of Parrs Ridge and typically gets less snow then places just east of there like Westminster and Manchester.  It's not quite as bad as Frederick in terms of snowshadow effect.  I am going to attach a map in my next post (for some reason it's not wanting to attach to this post) with a snowfall average for the area.  It's an old map and not perfect but its the best at showing where the max and min locations are.  If you are looking for the best locations, along parrs ridge in eastern Carroll County or northwest Baltimore county is the best spot that is within reasonable commutable distance to baltimore.  Areas around Westminster, Manchester, Hampstead.  If you want something further west the area along the catoctin mountain does even better.  Some of the elevations in there are above 1500 feet.  But that area is a hike to Baltimore, even worse then my commute.  The towns of Sabillasville (1100 ft) and Highfield-Cascade (1300 ft) are in that area...but the best spots that get blasted are the ridges around those towns.  Also along route 77 east of Smithburg there are some communities and neighborhoods above 1500 feet.  You just have to pull up a topographic map and find them.  But elevation is everything.  Obviously getting away from the coast and further north you will do better then Baltimore but honestly the lower elevations even out there do not to THAT much better.  But you go up in elevation and get above 1000 feet and suddenly its like a whole other climate zone and a winter wonderland.  There are some good topographic map websites like topozone where you can pull up elevation maps of the area and find neighborhoods higher up.   There is a trade off though.  Obviously the easiest commute is to find places along the major routes, 15 and 70, but those highways also tend to follow the valleys and are in snowfall minimums.  The larger towns like Thurmont, Frederick, and Hagerstown are also all in valleys.  So I know its a trade off, not everyone wants to live in the middle of nowhere just to get more snow.  But I don't want you to be disappointed if you move somewhere up there in a valley and find that you really only get 5" more a year then Baltimore and places around you with elevation get significantly more.  

[notvirga!]

Berk posted lwx's regional snowfall average map which can be found here: https://justinweather.com/2017/11/18/maryland-winters-snowfall-by-region-and-baltimore-records/

t's decent. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Berk's regional snowfall average map can be found here: https://justinweather.com/2017/11/18/maryland-winters-snowfall-by-region-and-baltimore-records/

t's decent. 

That's the one I was going to post actually, only an older version.  That isn't his map, it was produced by lwx like 15-20 years ago and he edited it a little bit.  One warning, the map is a little too liberal with the higher totals areas.  If you pull up an elevation map you can tell how the maximum areas follow the ridges but since it's hard to estimate exactly that map was a little too expansive.  One such place is northwest Carroll County where elevations go down but that map still has them in the 35+ zone which is really confined to the higher elevations in northeast Carroll County.  Like I said its not perfect but its the best I have seen for getting a general idea.  

[Sparky]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Taneytown does much better then Baltimore but it is west of Parrs Ridge and typically gets less snow then places just east of there like Westminster and Manchester.  It's not quite as bad as Frederick in terms of snowshadow effect.  I am going to attach a map in my next post (for some reason it's not wanting to attach to this post) with a snowfall average for the area.  It's an old map and not perfect but its the best at showing where the max and min locations are.  If you are looking for the best locations, along parrs ridge in eastern Carroll County or northwest Baltimore county is the best spot that is within reasonable commutable distance to baltimore.  Areas around Westminster, Manchester, Hampstead.  If you want something further west the area along the catoctin mountain does even better.  Some of the elevations in there are above 1500 feet.  But that area is a hike to Baltimore, even worse then my commute.  The towns of Sabillasville (1100 ft) and Highfield-Cascade (1300 ft) are in that area...but the best spots that get blasted are the ridges around those towns.  Also along route 77 east of Smithburg there are some communities and neighborhoods above 1500 feet.  You just have to pull up a topographic map and find them.  But elevation is everything.  Obviously getting away from the coast and further north you will do better then Baltimore but honestly the lower elevations even out there do not to THAT much better.  But you go up in elevation and get above 1000 feet and suddenly its like a whole other climate zone and a winter wonderland.  There are some good topographic map websites like topozone where you can pull up elevation maps of the area and find neighborhoods higher up.   There is a trade off though.  Obviously the easiest commute is to find places along the major routes, 15 and 70, but those highways also tend to follow the valleys and are in snowfall minimums.  The larger towns like Thurmont, Frederick, and Hagerstown are also all in valleys.  So I know its a trade off, not everyone wants to live in the middle of nowhere just to get more snow.  But I don't want you to be disappointed if you move somewhere up there in a valley and find that you really only get 5" more a year then Baltimore and places around you with elevation get significantly more.  

I agree with this for the most part.  Especially the minutia about how eastern parts of Carroll average more snowfall than the far western/northwestern parts (which is somewhat counterintuitive to a weather nerd in the Baltimore area).  But like you say it is more about having elevation, and Parrs Ridge is the main player in giving the eastern parts an advantage for snow accumulations.  I would further refine it to say eastern parts of Carroll from mid-Carroll northward.  Once you get into southeastern Carroll aournd Eldersburg and Sykesville the elevations are in decline (that part is off of Parr's) plus it is just further south and slightly influenced by the Baltimore UHI.   Cross over into southwestern Carroll though around Mt. Airy and closer to Rt. 27 going northward you are back up on Parr's Ridge ... so the southwest corner probably gets more snowfall than extreme NW corner of Carroll, or maybe it evens out due to the north/south distance between the two areas.

[mappy]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I believe it lasts 5 years.

hmm. it was 2012 when I got it, and i've used it this year to report hail without issue. 

[showmethesnow]

As I see this in-depth discussion on where you can score the most snow I can't help but wonder if it would just be easier to buy a couple/few snow machines and make your own. Saves you the hassle of packing everything up and moving. As well as the angst when you realized....

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Sparky said:

I agree with this for the most part.  Especially the minutia about how eastern parts of Carroll average more snowfall than the far western/northwestern parts (which is somewhat counterintuitive to a weather nerd in the Baltimore area).  But like you say it is more about having elevation, and Parrs Ridge is the main player in giving the eastern parts an advantage for snow accumulations.  I would further refine it to say eastern parts of Carroll from mid-Carroll northward.  Once you get into southeastern Carroll aournd Eldersburg and Sykesville the elevations are in decline (that part is off of Parr's) plus it is just further south and slightly influenced by the Baltimore UHI.   Cross over into southwestern Carroll though around Mt. Airy and closer to Rt. 27 going northward you are back up on Parr's Ridge ... so the southwest corner probably gets more snowfall than extreme NW corner of Carroll, or maybe it evens out due to the north/south distance between the two areas.

Yep. It's too hard to hit every micro climate nuance. That map notvirga linked does a good job showing the various elevation based maxes and minimums. Like I said it's just a little too expansive with the maximums. The ridges aren't quite as broad as the map suggests but you get the idea then can use a topographic map to figure it out.  General rule though is get northwest of the fall line and your snowfall bumps up about 4-5" immediately.  Avoid the valleys for the downslope precip shadow. Above 700 feet and your climate will resemble central NJ more then D.C.  Above 1000 feet and your climate will resemble northern NJ. Get above 1500 and your climate will resemble CT. Just a "general idea" of central MD climo from my perspective. 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s what I was told when I moved. It’s expected you take at least one training/class every 5 years to keep it active. 

I just want a winter where we all get to send weenie snow reports  

I need to find a class then, 2011 last time for me.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep. It's too hard to hit every micro climate nuance. That map notvirga linked does a good job showing the various elevation based maxes and minimums. Like I said it's just a little too expansive with the maximums. The ridges aren't quite as broad as the map suggests but you get the idea then can use a topographic map to figure it out.  General rule though is get northwest of the fall line and your snowfall bumps up about 4-5" immediately.  Avoid the valleys for the downslope precip shadow. Above 700 feet and your climate will resemble central NJ more then D.C.  Above 1000 feet and your climate will resemble northern NJ. Get above 1500 and your climate will resemble CT. Just a "general idea" of central MD climo from my perspective. 

When I lived up that way I was on a high spot west of Gamber, close to Rt 97. Just over 800 feet. Most cases there was little to no difference between my yard and Westminster. Often there was a noticeable difference driving down to Eldersburg.

[CAPE]

Of course where I live now the subtle differences in local snow climo have nothing to do with elevation- there isn't any lol. Best place to be is interior and north- away from both bays and far enough inland from the immediate coast. Interior mid and upper shore is the "snowiest" area, outside of a southern slider fringe job.

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

When I lived up that way I was on a high spot west of Gamber, close to Rt 97. Just over 800 feet. Most cases there was little to no difference between my yard and Westminster. Often there was a noticeable difference driving down to Eldersburg.

Westminster is at 760 feet downtown. Some of the neighborhoods on the east side of town are 800-900 feet.  So you wouldn't see much difference. But I have seen significant differences between Westminster and my location around 1050 feet. A few that stick out in my mind there was a marginal temp event back in February 2013 where I had 4" of wet snow and Westminster had less then an inch. There was an event several years ago around April 1 where I had 3.5" and Westminster had nothing. The October storm in 2012 I had 8" and Westminster only had 3-4". There have been too many instances where I had 1-2" and Westminster had nothing to mention. It's less of a difference in mid winter with a cold storm but in marginal setups I do a lot better then Westminster. 

[yoda]

20 game ban for Wilson upheld by Bettman -- https://www.yahoo.com/news/capitals-f-tom-wilsons-20-game-suspension-upheld-200455111--spt.html

NHLPA argument is laughable... esp since they want to protect the players from hits to the head