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Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks more like all week, lots of 80s, and dews tickling 70° at times. 

It does on this Euro run, now.. yeah...

Folks were bangin' this drum and frankly, I found it irritating because it just wasn't a warm look until this run

Which looking at this Euro depiction/evolution... yar, there is less 'over-top' higher pressure pearling out from southern Canada to off the Maritimes, a characteristic that absolutely would not allow a warm lower troposphere but yet one that everyone appeared to be less than aware of..

But, finally, now a model run to justify the grousing and/or celebrating, depending on one's point of view :)

Although, I'd still caution, the models have been flip flopping between this flatter/less confluent --> weaker wedging high and farther N placement of the ambient boundary ... but considering the time range I guess

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4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Exactly....somehow he's convinced himself that So New England is suppose to have hot and humid summers each year and cold and snowy winters each year.  A combination of Huntsville and Houghton.

LOL, It’s basically been the same thing for the past several years; it’s where the “Delusions in Seasons” expression came from.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

After the end of next week, it does look like a pattern change. Maybe not to way BN, but we get rid of the big SE ridge for time being.

It's going to change eventually, Nino conditions gaining traction this week. 

That along with climo wavelength changes should start beating down the ridging later in October.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

That’s going to be something else come winter leading up to a storm. Are the 6z and 18z runs going to just as useful as the 00z and 12z when it comes to new data ingestion? I can’t even remember what the deal is with regards to the 6z and 18z GFS runs. Are they still considered “off runs” or was that all just some myth?

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8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Is next week still looking torched? If it verifies, probably sets us up for warmest Oct on record, which is disturbing considering all the other warmest months we've had this year. Really really disturbing. It's so easy to break warmth records. 

Torched. That won't change.

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1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

Is next week still looking torched? If it verifies, probably sets us up for warmest Oct on record, which is disturbing considering all the other warmest months we've had this year. Really really disturbing. It's so easy to break warmth records. 

I don't find it disturbing at all....enjoy the warm weather and don't Fret so much.  

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I'm still not entirely convinced ... 

The pattern in the larger synoptic scope and scale is clearly destined to be warmer than normal ... add adjectives at user discretion.   

However, ... ya know, today was supposed to be in the high seventies or higher for days in the models and here we are.  Not two days before hand and suddenly ...oh, the boundary's destined to align through the region and collapse (typical..) to NYC, jamming us up with NE saturated mank.  May as well be late April out there... Anyway, some 5 ...6 or 7 days back, the Euro had the boundary N, and everyone S of midriff VT/NH basking in warmth.  

The problem I have with all this is not the ridge ... The predictability for it is obviously a safe bet.  The problem is the handling the flow over top - it's hard to visualize (for some perhaps...) but it's merely a present situation in the Euro or the like that they don't have an inversion/cool under cut depicted now.  

Moreover, we are verifying that error/plausible later correct right now, today - 

So we'll see I guess. It's really be secondarily aware of which way the "correction vectors" are pointing.  We hare tending to correct warm mid-extended ranges cool, not the other way. If it were the latter, I might have more confidence. 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ACCAT that disappeared all summer and suddenly reappeared after a slight mild down are running rampant . Notice it’s mainly NNE ers too. Denying and fighting climate has changed right before them . #keepwishingforcoldinaseaofwarmth

If the climate has changed (in a moment, in the twinkling of the eyes), then  why complain. "Seasons in seasons" will now mean HHH May-October, Mild and damp November-April. Every year its the same thing. Embrace the change. Enjoy Permian II. Celebrate it.

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Locking in thermals on a 216 hr prog. Wish we could do that with such assurance when snowstorms show up in the LR.

You would be laughed at if this was showing even cold in that range as some would continue humping the WAR,

Some remain in denial that fall has arrived especially when they may not see a frost until November where up here Frost/Freeze warnings have been surpassed.

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ACCAT that disappeared all summer and suddenly reappeared after a slight mild down are running rampant . Notice it’s mainly NNE ers too. Denying and fighting climate has changed right before them . #keepwishingforcoldinaseaofwarmth

Pump the brakes son. We’re only laughing at your suggestion that NNE needs their AC in October. 

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