Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I could see temps bottoming out in the "middle" of the night and going steady.  I'm just thinking a 15-20° drop is more likely.  I realize I'm only talking a few degrees at the low end but I think 12 is a little too conservative all things considered.  You'll get a few degrees drop with sunset and with Dp's in the 20's it would be easy to drop a few more as the wind goes calm before bottoming out.

Again ...if that happens..  I have seen these turn-around patterns a million times.  Cold core comes through at noon to 1pm... and it's actually moving away en masse with a veering wind that same night.  

It'll cool off - of course. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This air mass coming in is deep, with thicknesses plumbing to an unusually deep sub 525 dam in dale - which for mid October is pushing extremeness.

 

BTV had a graphic showing the 5H trough depth was at record value for the recent 30-year climo period.  

Today may be the first sub-freezing High for Mansfield this season, so that's a step in the right direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV had a graphic showing the 5H trough depth was at record value for the recent 30-year climo period.  

Today may be the first sub-freezing High for Mansfield this season, so that's a step in the right direction.

I wonder if mount Washington  falls below zero Wednesday night.. As of now the forecast is one degree..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I wonder if mount Washington  falls below zero Wednesday night.. As of now the forecast is one degree..

Yeah MWN is usually 10F colder than MMNV1 with the extra 2,000 vertical feet under normal lapse rates.  It's going to be real cold on the summits that's for sure.  Snowmaking weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is definitely cold for October.  Our highs have been lowered to the mid-30s for the valley on Thursday.  

This is like climo temps on December 1st here.

Thursday...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just good to see mostly dry weather until the monster snows end of the month. Need to dry out in the west. 

No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain.   I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I could see temps bottoming out in the "middle" of the night and going steady.  I'm just thinking a 15-20° drop is more likely.  I realize I'm only talking a few degrees at the low end but I think 12 is a little too conservative all things considered.  You'll get a few degrees drop with sunset and with Dp's in the 20's it would be easy to drop a few more as the wind goes calm before bottoming out.

This doesn't appear to be a typical radiational set up, where you'll see big drops from your daytime temp. We're still cold to neutral advecting overnight, so the boundary layer may stay mixed. The one caveat is if the WAA aloft as return flow sets up can give us a quick sunrise surprise in temp drops. But for the bulk of the night it looks too mixed to really tumble off.

5 hours ago, Hoth said:

Great song. Love JT. "Copperline", "Never Die Young" and "Sun on the Moon" are my jams. 

I'll second that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain.   I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms.
 

It’s been brutal, everyone agrees...but we’ve turned the corner, until Halloween 2.0. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

No, seriously, I am at the brink of Ray Bradbury, short story, insanity with regards to rain.   I would take insane dry, cold winter over, potentially, warm rainy winter, with chances of epic snowstorms.
 

This reminded me of the short story by him called "There Will Come Soft Rains".  One of his more depressing ones.

There is also "The Long Rain"...very depressing, as well as "All Summer in a Day"...hey...depressing!  

 

Have a nice day

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

All the ensembles are sniffing a cool to cold pattern to start November.  2002 had a warmup around the 2nd week but that was fairly short lived.

HOW LONG WILL THE WARMUP BE???? haha jk. I'm loving this Fall all of a sudden. I have a feeling we experience a frontloaded winter with most of the fun ending by mid-Jan, which to me is ideal. Let's see! Thanks for tolerating my emotional greenness, everyone!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

By Mid Jan????   Ok that would be a very very short lived winter if that were the case and I don't think we'd even be able to call it a Front-loaded winter if that were to happen.  That would suck...hope you're wrong....which you probably are on that call.  

Perhaps a Jan thaw by mid Jan...but winter being over at that point...is highly unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Not to many if any other then i guess you could say after that retro storm in 2010 that winter ended in Jan up here.

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That storm was in Feb...but sure in extreme cases that could happen and winter ends in Mid Jan like Lurker said.  I'm not ready to go there that's for sure...that would be an extreme case for sure.

It was in January....within a few days of New Years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Impressive transitory character to this new pattern ...

On the rough it's like...  65 today; 40 if we're lucky tomorrow;  60 Friday/Sat;  40 Sunday ...  

up down up down...

The northern stream tends to relax in the longer term, at which point the thickness tapestry from the NP-Lakes -OV ..NE has shed some 10 to 15 dm and no means to recover ... leaving a much more Novembery look - this whole period symbolically was a rasp to erode the last vestiges of the warm season... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Impressive transitory character to this new pattern ...

On the rough it's like...  65 today; 40 if we're lucky tomorrow;  60 Friday/Sat;  40 Sunday ...  

up down up down...

The northern stream tends to relax in the longer term, at which point the thickness tapestry from the NP-Lakes -OV ..NE has shed some 10 to 15 dm and no means to recover ... leaving a much more Novembery look - this whole period symbolically was a rasp to erode the last vestiges of the warm season... 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

HOW LONG WILL THE WARMUP BE???? haha jk. I'm loving this Fall all of a sudden. I have a feeling we experience a frontloaded winter with most of the fun ending by mid-Jan, which to me is ideal. Let's see! Thanks for tolerating my emotional greenness, everyone!

Winter will start Dec 21 and end Mar 20....don’t you worry little boy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

 

It was in January....within a few days of New Years.

Oh then I don't remember that one???   I thought he was talking about the one that came in from the East Northeast in Feb, where most in New England had rain and NYC had two feet, as well as other places in the Mid Atlantic, which was part of the Snowmageddon deal that year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh then I don't remember that one???   I thought he was talking about the one that came in from the East Northeast in Feb, where most in New England had rain and NYC had two feet, as well as other places in the Mid Atlantic, which was part of the Snowmageddon deal that year. 

Not sure how much CT was affected by the New Years event.  May not have made it that far south and west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...