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Coldtober model and pattern disco

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH at +6.1F for Torchtober so far.   That should drop pretty quickly over the next few days

Long range continues to look pretty cool too...so that will prob be dropping most of the rest of the month aside from a cutter or two that give us brief warmer spikes. Maybe we warm again at the very end of month...still too far out to know for sure.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Book-ending/echoing Scott's sentiment ...  I believe warm ENSO years tend to be front-loaders... don't quote me.  They'd know specifically but I have that recollection. 

That said, that does not intend to mean that up... it's over January 1 ...  I still maintain that the entire (EPO)AO(NAO) arc is a not well understood demonic wildcard that seems to show up in direct proportion to any semblance certainty that is based upon the ENSO - heh

So, ..ignore those at one's peril 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Book ending Scott's sentiment ...  I believe warm ENSO years tend to be front-loaders... don't quote me.  They'd know specifically but I have the recollection. 

That said, that does not intend to mean that up... it's over January 1 ...  I still maintain that the entire (EPO)AO(NAO) arc is a not well understood demonic wildcard that is only played when there is certainty coming from the ENSO - heh

So, ..ignore those at one's peril 

I have found the opposite....warm ENSO is back-loaded usually, though not always (1997-1998 basically ended after MLK day).

 

But typically our biggest January/Februarys have been in El Nino while our biggest Decembers have been in La Nina.

Some recent Warm ENSO:

2015-2016: Garbage winter, but late January into earl February was easily the best period...we narrowly missed the epic Mid-Atlantic blizzard only getting grzed by it on 1/22/16. Warmest December on record.

2014-2015: Most epic 3 week period on record for SNE last week of January into mid-February....'nuf said. Mild and relatively snowless December.

2009-2010: This may be an exception...though probably by dumb luck. Winter really went south in SNE after the New Years weekend retro-storm....but we narrowly missed KU after KU in Februaryas the pattern was extremely favorable for big storms that month.

2006-2007: Another garbage winter, but it finally started the last week of January. We had the epic sleet/snow storm on Vday 2007 which gave some of NNE 2+ feet. February was very cold as well around 7F below normal. Top 3 warmest December on record.

2004-2005: Best period was late January 2005 which included the KU event and also several sub-zero cold nights. March 2005 was also a big month.

2002-2003: February 2003 was Boston's snowiest February on record until 2015 unseated it. Not coincidentally, the previous snowiest February on record had also been El Nino in the winter of 1968-1969.  Also Jan/Feb were top 5 coldest at BOS.

1997-1998: Super Nino....bad winter overall but it bucked the trend....December was near normal temps with the big 12/23/97 surprise that dumped 20" in the 495 belt. Had the epic NNE ice storm in early Jan 1998 and then a couple moderate snowstorms for NE (esp pike north) in mid-January.....then winter was largely over.

1994-1995: Terrible winter. Warm snowless Dec/Jan....but pattern finally flipped in February and we had our one big event on 2/4/95. February came in very cold too.

1991-1992: Another El Nino that bucked the trend...December was not too warm and had a few snow events (esp interior)....Jan/Feb were mostly warm and low snow. March did get cold and we saw a few snow events. Pinatubo probably greatly affected this winter as it was just 6 monthsafter the eruption.

1986-1987: January 1987 was one of the snowiest months on record for interior SNE...February was pretty decent too. Dec '86 was awful.

1982-1983: Dec '82 warm and snowless, but late January to mid Feb 1983 was cold and snowy....biggest event of the season was 2/11-12/83.

1977-1978: Late Jan '78 through early Feb '78....'nuf said.

1976-1977: This one was kind of just frigid the entire time....Jan '77 was the snowiest month, but the best event near BOS might have actually been 12/29/76....a stripe of 18" snow near Rt 128 on a late bloomer....quickly diminished to the west....even ORH only had 4 inches. It is one of Ray's favorite storms he wish he was alive for.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I have found the opposite....warm ENSO is back-loaded usually, though not always (1997-1998 basically ended after MLK day).

 

But typically our biggest January/Februarys have been in El Nino while our biggest Decembers have been in La Nina.

Some recent Warm ENSO:

2015-2016: Garbage winter, but late January into earl February was easily the best period...we narrowly missed the epic Mid-Atlantic blizzard only getting grzed by it on 1/22/16. Warmest December on record.

2014-2015: Most epic 3 week period on record for SNE last week of January into mid-February....'nuf said. Mild and relatively snowless December.

2009-2010: This may be an exception...though probably by dumb luck. Winter really went south in SNE after the New Years weekend retro-storm....but we narrowly missed KU after KU in Februaryas the pattern was extremely favorable for big storms that month.

2006-2007: Another garbage winter, but it finally started the last week of January. We had the epic sleet/snow storm on Vday 2007 which gave some of NNE 2+ feet. February was very cold as well around 7F below normal. Top 3 warmest December on record.

2004-2005: Best period was late January 2005 which included the KU event and also several sub-zero cold nights. March 2005 was also a big month.

2002-2003: February 2003 was Boston's snowiest February on record until 2015 unseated it. Not coincidentally, the previous snowiest February on record had also been El Nino in the winter of 1968-1969.  Also Jan/Feb were top 5 coldest at BOS.

1997-1998: Super Nino....bad winter overall but it bucked the trend....December was near normal temps with the big 12/23/97 surprise that dumped 20" in the 495 belt. Had the epic NNE ice storm in early Jan 1998 and then a couple moderate snowstorms for NE (esp pike north) in mid-January.....then winter was largely over.

1994-1995: Terrible winter. Warm snowless Dec/Jan....but pattern finally flipped in February and we had our one big event on 2/4/95. February came in very cold too.

1991-1992: Another El Nino that bucked the trend...December was not too warm and had a few snow events (esp interior)....Jan/Feb were mostly warm and low snow. March did get cold and we saw a few snow events. Pinatubo probably greatly affected this winter as it was just 6 monthsafter the eruption.

1986-1987: January 1987 was one of the snowiest months on record for interior SNE...February was pretty decent too. Dec '86 was awful.

1982-1983: Dec '82 warm and snowless, but late January to mid Feb 1983 was cold and snowy....biggest event of the season was 2/11-12/83.

1977-1978: Late Jan '78 through early Feb '78....'nuf said.

1976-1977: This one was kind of just frigid the entire time....Jan '77 was the snowiest month, but the best event near BOS might have actually been 12/29/76....a stripe of 18" snow near Rt 128 on a late bloomer....quickly diminished to the west....even ORH only had 4 inches. It is one of Ray's favorite storms he wish he was alive for.

Did you just type all that out now from sheer memory ?

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

1976-1977: This one was kind of just frigid the entire time....Jan '77 was the snowiest month, but the best event near BOS might have actually been 12/29/76....a stripe of 18" snow near Rt 128 on a late bloomer....quickly diminished to the west....even ORH only had 4 inches. It is one of Ray's favorite storms he wish he was alive for.

We traveled from NNJ to Fort Kent the night of Dec. 29-30, in a 2WD standard cab pickup, 3 people (3rd was our 4-yr-old son) and 2 cats - couldn't get a pet sitter.  We were young and foolish then, now no longer young - that's why we missed Jan. 27-28, 2015 (except for the shoveling), as we spent an extra day with the grandkids in SNJ rather than challenge that blizzard.  The 12/76 trip encountered snowy roads soon after entering MA and falling snow just south of the Kennebunk plaza on the Maine Turnpike.  Stopped briefly at BGR HoJo for some coffee about 3:30 AM in SN+, which had been our view from PWM north.  That HoJo stuff blew thru my system in about an hour - blessedly, there was TP at the Medway rest stop's outhouse - using snow in the 15° dark and snow would not have been nice.  Snow let up shortly after dawn as we drove thru CAR, and about 2 minutes after we arrived at home the NW gales arrived and we couldn't see Pelletier Florist across the street - another blessing, as between PQI and CAR that wind dropped visibility to a low number feet (or inches), having 12" new to play with along with the foot-plus (at CAR - Ft. Kent had 24") that had fallen on 12/26-27.  Those 2 storms turned our blue Beetle into a white lump.

Would comment on Will's other mentions, but the above is enough weenie for one post.  ;)

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes.

1991 has a snow event Veterans Day that dumped an inch in Winchester where I was living at the time.  Also, some events in December.   I had this girlfriend up in PWM.  I remember heading up there one Saturday afternoon with temperatures approaching 50 but I hit the boundary in southern NH.   14 inches in Portland.  Well worth the trip!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Looks like one last mini torch Monday. 

Mm... maybe a 'and be done with it' in mind?

Probably what happens is that attempts at warm ups keep emerging for awhile...  say, ever three or four days.

The pattern's change - pretty much today is/was the door swing on that.  But, what we've ventured into is uncharted waters. That means there's some unknowns. The models are (as you know) not exact, and we could certainly wind up with a trough axis a tad west enough to allow occasional roll-up warm sectors to nick and/or transient brush throw...

In fact, that may not be a bad course to go.. We've just dominated the dailies with at least some kind of SE ridge expression most of the time since in the end of May really... It might be naive to think it's just up and merrily departed for our convenience as winter warriors :) 

But through it all...plenty of autumn like and then some -

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have found the opposite....warm ENSO is back-loaded usually, though not always (1997-1998 basically ended after MLK day).

 

But typically our biggest January/Februarys have been in El Nino while our biggest Decembers have been in La Nina.

Some recent Warm ENSO:

2015-2016: Garbage winter, but late January into earl February was easily the best period...we narrowly missed the epic Mid-Atlantic blizzard only getting grzed by it on 1/22/16. Warmest December on record.

2014-2015: Most epic 3 week period on record for SNE last week of January into mid-February....'nuf said. Mild and relatively snowless December.

2009-2010: This may be an exception...though probably by dumb luck. Winter really went south in SNE after the New Years weekend retro-storm....but we narrowly missed KU after KU in Februaryas the pattern was extremely favorable for big storms that month.

2006-2007: Another garbage winter, but it finally started the last week of January. We had the epic sleet/snow storm on Vday 2007 which gave some of NNE 2+ feet. February was very cold as well around 7F below normal. Top 3 warmest December on record.

2004-2005: Best period was late January 2005 which included the KU event and also several sub-zero cold nights. March 2005 was also a big month.

2002-2003: February 2003 was Boston's snowiest February on record until 2015 unseated it. Not coincidentally, the previous snowiest February on record had also been El Nino in the winter of 1968-1969.  Also Jan/Feb were top 5 coldest at BOS.

1997-1998: Super Nino....bad winter overall but it bucked the trend....December was near normal temps with the big 12/23/97 surprise that dumped 20" in the 495 belt. Had the epic NNE ice storm in early Jan 1998 and then a couple moderate snowstorms for NE (esp pike north) in mid-January.....then winter was largely over.

1994-1995: Terrible winter. Warm snowless Dec/Jan....but pattern finally flipped in February and we had our one big event on 2/4/95. February came in very cold too.

1991-1992: Another El Nino that bucked the trend...December was not too warm and had a few snow events (esp interior)....Jan/Feb were mostly warm and low snow. March did get cold and we saw a few snow events. Pinatubo probably greatly affected this winter as it was just 6 monthsafter the eruption.

1986-1987: January 1987 was one of the snowiest months on record for interior SNE...February was pretty decent too. Dec '86 was awful.

1982-1983: Dec '82 warm and snowless, but late January to mid Feb 1983 was cold and snowy....biggest event of the season was 2/11-12/83.

1977-1978: Late Jan '78 through early Feb '78....'nuf said.

1976-1977: This one was kind of just frigid the entire time....Jan '77 was the snowiest month, but the best event near BOS might have actually been 12/29/76....a stripe of 18" snow near Rt 128 on a late bloomer....quickly diminished to the west....even ORH only had 4 inches. It is one of Ray's favorite storms he wish he was alive for.

Yeah...I knew it was one way or the other ... 1977-1978 should've stopped me from guessing..

But, my point (I feel) cannot be dispensed with, and that is that the polarward index may or may not cooperate with shall we say ...expectations. 

My personal hunch is that these "polar vortex" (awful) winters are not accidentally associated with solar minima

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I knew it was one way or the other ... 1977-1978 should've stopped me from guessing..

But, my point (I feel) cannot be dispensed with, and that is that the polarward index may or may not cooperate with shall we say ...expectations. 

My personal hunch is that these "polar vortex" (awful) winters are not accidentally associated with solar minima

One thing that seems to be almost universal...if December is cold and/or snowy in an El Niño...then buckle your seatbelt because it's almost always a good winter. 

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