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Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

What were they measuring 110mph with in Boston in 1804?

I can't find documentation of that, but I did see it mentioned that the direction was SW (odd for a tropical landfall). So maybe suggests warm seclusion/sting jet evolution was responsible for winds around eastern Mass.

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That was a pretty cold run of the 12z GFS/FV3 GFS....has lows in the 20s even down here by the 20th. That was a pretty quick flip. It definitely has the look of the past few years where most of the country bakes relative to average and we stay locked in the "cooler" pattern. EPO driven I would assume?

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30 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

That was a pretty cold run of the 12z GFS/FV3 GFS....has lows in the 20s even down here by the 20th. That was a pretty quick flip. It definitely has the look of the past few years where most of the country bakes relative to average and we stay locked in the "cooler" pattern. EPO driven I would assume?

No... PNA...

I discussed that earlier...  The EPO is collapsing and the PNA is rising, heralding in a ridge expression at mid latitudes over western N/A ... which subsequently ensues trough in the east.  

-EPO vs +EPO can more directly effect the wave spacing across N/A (more so than transitive/indirectly...), but that usually happens in the mid winter when the wave lengths are much longer.  

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I can't find documentation of that, but I did see it mentioned that the direction was SW (odd for a tropical landfall). So maybe suggests warm seclusion/sting jet evolution was responsible for winds around eastern Mass.

I even wonder if that's based upon a real reanalysis science ... ...if so, how - 

Seems it'd have to built/assessed almost entirely upon anecdotal accounts. 

It wouldn't shock me if there was no real tropical system here over SNE, and say that track is just not right.  In Dec 2005 we had something similar to what you described entirely from an unusually potent mid level jet structure and attending bombogen running along SE RI ... It was exceptionally well handled by the ETA in its twilight years - since retired to this NAM:   "Not A Model" 

That one brought wind speeds of ... 110 mph in gust to the Cape and Islands from a singer...  

I don't doubt that a TC was in the vicinity?  But "vicinity" in Met terms can be Va Capes to SE of CC... where as if an early season Dec 2005 type compact nuke was bombing and perhaps thefting diabatic streamer ...or perhaps outright absorbing, that's not the same as "Snow hurricane" per se

...But, given to the shimmering clear state of the art recorded satellite imagery, radar, as well as infrastructure for ground truth data networking that was miraculously in place 180 years before its time, I'm sure they nailed all the culprit players on that thing...   

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No... PNA...

I discussed that earlier...  The EPO is collapsing and the PNA is rising, heralding in a ridge expression at mid latitudes over western N/A ... which subsequently ensues trough in the east.  

-EPO vs +EPO can more directly effect the wave spacing across N/A (more so than transitive/indirectly...), but that usually happens in the mid winter when the wave lengths are much longer.  

I should always read the last couple pages before I post...Thanks for the clarification.

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. NNE has furnaced just like everyone else .

Today was amazing.  Sunshine and torch.  Spent 6 hours outside hiking around the mountains enjoying the foliage.

77-78F straight across the northern tier on the mesomap including BTV, MVL, 1V4, HIE, BML, LEW, AUG, etc...  NNE Torch with dews in the 60s to boot!

 

evdOxP3.jpg

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yup.  Some say it made that winter or at least provided the jump start to epicosity.

Pretty pretty please. I have very fond memories of that winter...specifically of never having a full week of school from November to March and of jumping off my roof into a drift after January '96.

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