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Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One last furnace the rest of this week and finally our ongoing endless summer ends. 

What a run 

 

The irony in calling something "endless" when it ends and was never really continuous.  Sure it was relentless, recurring, extreme and historic but certainly not continuous and endless.

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For an ensemble mean, the pattern looks fairly chilly through the 11-15 day and beyond. Definitely not a stretch to say first flakes type pattern for some in New England. 

You were pimping Pina Colada's and know its frozen Daiquiri's? :lol:

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You were pimping Pina Colada's and know its frozen Daiquiri's? :lol:

Can't change teams!  Go warm stay warm 4eva.

Holy crap it's warm outside right now, all windows and doors wide open.  Had the heat on two days ago then realized this morning it's warmer outside than in.

We've got sun and nearing 70F even into NEK of VT.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can't change teams!  Go warm stay warm 4eva.

Holy crap it's warm outside right now, all windows and doors wide open.  Had the heat on two days ago then realized this morning it's warmer outside than in.

We've got sun and nearing 70F even into NEK of VT.

Hasn't quite got here yet, But it looks to be a warm couple days before going back to regression.

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Historical damage assessment and building standards/science can hone a close approximation...if they did not measure it directly.  

What I'm curious about is how to get a full bird 'cane over to cold core that quickly - I don't think that specific aspect has been papered/scienced, that I'm aware that is... I've never read about "speed" in getting that done.  Fascinating -

Sandy did some indirect multi-seasonal stuff... 

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Looks like a low-amplitude 'relay event' ..  or perhaps an autumn version of one. 

It's when the EPO is negative and the block then retrogrades and/or collapses S ..melding into the PNA, which lag rises with ridging more in the middle latitudes over western N/A..  Meanwhile, the EPO is neutralized.  

So the EPO loads cold into the Beaufort sea/NW territories, first... then with the subsequent PNA rising/ridging grabs, the flow over western Canada tips NW and that relays cold thickness into to the Canadian shield and onwards. 

**** 

Scott mentions 'first flakes' around New England.   No argument... I see 540 thickness and long isobars from western JB ...yeah, okay.  

But when I was child in western lower Michigan and all the way up through my college years living out here in SNE... Snow in October was excruciatingly rate...  It seems since 2002 or so...it's like every year or every other year, you either get a glop synoptic job or a packing pellets CAA instability day.  Interesting...  

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

74/66 amid bright sunshine in NVT mountain towns... gotta be close to records if we get to the upper 70s.

Edit: Last year yesterday the High was 76F, so maybe not records.

Technically our region ...meaning y'all up there and throughout SNE, are not even in the warm sector yet as of this hour. 

You can see it sort of "washing out" ...but, the boundary is curvi-linear from midriff Jersey through middle NYS...E-N of that boundary is wave form inversion clouds stationary...albeit warm anyway -

Interesting if we do pop 80 tomorrow

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