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Coldtober model and pattern disco

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s amazing how much that group fights warmth. We’ve furnaced thru almost +6 thru the first 5 days of the month relative to time of year. And next week will probably get us up up +8 for the month. But because a few sheltered valleys in Maine had a frost at 33, and a sleet pellet fell on the Canadian border it hasn’t been endless summer. This crew is something else . 

You’ll be there in one month. I look forward to torturing you then.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I of course prefer chill and seasons in season, but I can also admit when we are torching and furnacing like we have in September and now Oct. There’s a difference between admitting it and trying to deny it

With Nino kicking in, the overall furnace ends late next week. It doesn’t mean we can’t have AN temps,  but not like we’ve seen.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I of course prefer chill and seasons in season, but I can also admit when we are torching and furnacing like we have in September and now Oct. There’s a difference between admitting it and trying to deny it

I haven't read any posts that deny it's been above normal.  I think what some are debating are the "endless summer" calls of highs in the 80s "from now on".  Yeah, it's been warm and we've even had a day or too with higher dp's but for the most part the daytime highs have not been summer like.  Sure we're +5 or whatever for October but if we had a week of highs averaging 64°, I don't think anyone would be saying it was warm weather.  It's all relative.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

So I went back to see how the call of the so-called "all cold crew" went against the "seasons in seasons crew" and we can just see who had the better call:

The seasons in seasons crew said on 9/27 " There’s going to be several days next week in the low- mid 80’s with dews. Please look at modeling" followed by "Lol at 70-75 and 50"

So the cold crew correctly called for temps in the 70s while the seasons crew called for 80s yet some how the cold crew is in denial?  Of course the seasons crew is now focusing on next week with calls of "When it’s 87 /69 in CON or BTV next week .. let’s revisit".  Again the so-called cold crew has tempered expectations and they are in denial?

Sure we're above normal and I haven't seen anyone deny that but just because someone counters an extreme call doesn't mean that they are in denial.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

Excellent post Herb...and that has been my point, and the All cold crews point from the beginning, and our only point.  

 

But some how it always gets twisted, and made to look like denial or ignorance by some.   

 

Great summary of what has really transpired with this debate....and not a twisted and skewed view of the facts.  

 

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted
So I went back to see how the call of the so-called "all cold crew" went against the "seasons in seasons crew" and we can just see who had the better call:
The seasons in seasons crew said on 9/27 " There’s going to be several days next week in the low- mid 80’s with dews. Please look at modeling" followed by "Lol at 70-75 and 50"
So the cold crew correctly called for temps in the 70s while the seasons crew called for 80s yet some how the cold crew is in denial?  Of course the seasons crew is now focusing on next week with calls of "When it’s 87 /69 in CON or BTV next week .. let’s revisit".  Again the so-called cold crew has tempered expectations and they are in denial?
Sure we're above normal and I haven't seen anyone deny that but just because someone counters an extreme call doesn't mean that they are in denial.
Glad I'm in the WGAFC

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ran my central air maybe 2 nights the last month? Electric bill was a third of what it was for August and first few days of September.

We take that.

Shows the seasonal step down 

Yeah.  My bill for July and August were horrific. Hopefully my September one will come in more reasonable

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks day by day. Appears my skiing life is over and probably most extreme sports I enjoy, that’s O K no regrets and did things some never had the chance to

Damn boy. Not the news I wanted to hear from you post-op. Rest up.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I actually agree to some extend, re Kevin's sentiment up there about blowing the short terms...  But, it's hard to say if 'sentiment' fits the fact.

We were discussing that (elsewhere) this morning, how there seems to be a recent 'optimistic' bias in cloud contamination vs clear that's gone on really since the end of August.  It might be interesting ...albeit tedious, to compare cloud against forecasts - gee ...not sure where to even go to find that.

Not sure about the temperatures, but with clouds seemingly abundant ... it might be keeping highs down with lows high - lousy way to run an "above normal" pattern, huh - we get no benefits from it :/ ... I really couldn't care less if it's 54 F at 2am ... but I'd really would rather it be 75 mid afternoon until the 2nd week of November then go Zurich cold with old dog-bark mornings from under your car's hood -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

As an after thought ... we just passed through about a +2 standard deviation accumulated precipitation episode spanning the last 45 days or whatever it's been ... Might be hard to establish clear air under inversions with so much continental -scale sized moisture abundance?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks day by day. Appears my skiing life is over and probably most extreme sports I enjoy, that’s O K no regrets and did things some never had the chance to

Get well Steve!  Limits either by age or orthopedics happen to all of us.  You WILL be able to be out in the snow.  Snow shoeing is a lot of fun and great exercise.  

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I haven't read any posts that deny it's been above normal.  I think what some are debating are the "endless summer" calls of highs in the 80s "from now on".  Yeah, it's been warm and we've even had a day or too with higher dp's but for the most part the daytime highs have not been summer like.  Sure we're +5 or whatever for October but if we had a week of highs averaging 64°, I don't think anyone would be saying it was warm weather.  It's all relative.

This

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