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Coldtober model and pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Well I'm technically in the southern half. It'll be near normal for the first 7 days up here. CON-south maybe a little warmer. Nothing too cold or too hot for this time of year.

Hopefully next week is warmer and sunnier. MEX is kinda meh for up here. Get that sfc boundary way up into QB please.


GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KLCI   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/05/2018  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  62| 40  66| 52  71| 54  63| 52  64| 60  70| 54  66| 55  67 40 59
 TMP  49| 43  58| 58  62| 55  56| 56  59| 63  62| 57  58| 57  57      
 DPT  35| 38  47| 56  60| 50  49| 51  55| 58  56| 54  52| 50  48      
 CLD  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL      
 WND   7|  2   8|  6   6|  5   5|  5   6|  4   7|  8   6|  4   8      
 P12   0|  2   8| 15  33| 23  25| 55  50| 42  40| 45  36| 20  18999999
 P24    |      8|     37|     25|     77|     56|     68|     27   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  1   1|  1    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      2|      1|       |             
 T12   5|  1   2|  4   5|  0   0|  3   2| 11  12|  4   6|  2   1      
 T24    | 10    |  4    |  7    |  3    | 12    | 15    |  9          
 PZP   1|  0   0|  2   0|  0   1|  0   0|  2   2|  4   0|  0   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  0   0      
 PRS   1|  0   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   1|  0   1|  2   1|  1   0      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             

Looking like one day as well next week up here in the 70's outside of Sunday and that would be on Wednesday.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well I'm technically in the southern half. It'll be near normal for the first 7 days up here. CON-south maybe a little warmer. Nothing too cold or too hot for this time of year.

Hopefully next week is warmer and sunnier. MEX is kinda meh for up here. Get that sfc boundary way up into QB please.


GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KLCI   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/05/2018  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  62| 40  66| 52  71| 54  63| 52  64| 60  70| 54  66| 55  67 40 59
 TMP  49| 43  58| 58  62| 55  56| 56  59| 63  62| 57  58| 57  57      
 DPT  35| 38  47| 56  60| 50  49| 51  55| 58  56| 54  52| 50  48      
 CLD  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL      
 WND   7|  2   8|  6   6|  5   5|  5   6|  4   7|  8   6|  4   8      
 P12   0|  2   8| 15  33| 23  25| 55  50| 42  40| 45  36| 20  18999999
 P24    |      8|     37|     25|     77|     56|     68|     27   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  1   1|  1    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      2|      1|       |             
 T12   5|  1   2|  4   5|  0   0|  3   2| 11  12|  4   6|  2   1      
 T24    | 10    |  4    |  7    |  3    | 12    | 15    |  9          
 PZP   1|  0   0|  2   0|  0   1|  0   0|  2   2|  4   0|  0   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  0   0      
 PRS   1|  0   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   1|  0   1|  2   1|  1   0      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             

Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but it says the climo avg is 59/40, and that looks like a solid +15 avg on the lows and +7 on the highs which would put the next seven days at around a +11 wouldn't it?

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20 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but it says the climo avg is 59/40, and that looks like a solid +15 avg on the lows and +7 on the highs which would put the next seven days at around a +11 wouldn't it?

Are we talking the first 7 days of the month or the next 7 days?

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Just saw Ryan’s Forecast for next week...it’s cooler again from the inferno calls of Yore next week.  Basically Sunday is 75-80, and Wednesday upper Seventies to near 80; then it cools off nicely.

 

 Mild/warm temps sure...but nothing extreme or out of the ordinary, and everybody who uninstalled will be just fine. 

 

 #infernocancel

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31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Mild/warm temps sure...but nothing extreme or out of the ordinary, and everybody who uninstalled will be just fine. 

 #infernocancel

That's some hyperbole too.  It is out of the ordinary if it gets to 80F there next week.  

You can argue semantics but it won't be ordinary October fare if that happens.  Not record highs but I wouldn't try too hard to make it seem normal.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That's some hyperbole too.  It is out of the ordinary if it gets to 80F there next week.  

You can argue semantics but it won't be ordinary October fare if that happens.  Not record highs but I wouldn't try too hard to make it seem normal.

Try to Remember what the calls were for.  

 

Nobody said normal...but it surely isn’t a furnace.  Lately(last 10-15 years) it isn’t out of the ordinary...78-80 is warm for sure, but you can think what you want, but that’s nothing extraordinary for SNE in early October imo.   

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody said normal...but it surely isn’t a furnace.  Lately(last 10-15 years) it isn’t out of the ordinary...78-80 is warm for sure, but you can think what you want, but that’s nothing extraordinary for SNE in early October imo.   

Ryan's forecast is a +8 over his 10 day period. Maybe it gets tempered a bit, but still, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country.

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Just now, snowman21 said:

Ryan's forecast is a +8 over his 10 day period. Maybe it gets tempered a bit, but still, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country.

 

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

Ryan's forecast is a +8 over his 10 day period. Maybe it gets tempered a bit, but still, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country.

Tempered like this week??

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Tempered like this week??

BDL is +5.8 through today, and if Ryan's forecast holds would be +6.6 through the middle of the month. Like I said, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country. Maybe if we were living in a place like MSP, DSM, TOP, or RAP it would be relatively unimpressive.

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Again as was said...most of that is overnight low driven...if you think October so far has been a furnace...well you’re entitled to your opinion for sure....but I’m not impressed with the heat of October so far. Today high was BN(just gorgeous though). Tomorrow’s high will be too...a couple days highs early this week we’re too.  Tonight will be BN Too. 

But to each their own.   You make a valid point.  It’s all good Snowman.    

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Try to Remember what the calls were for.  

 

Nobody said normal...but it surely isn’t a furnace.  Lately(last 10-15 years) it isn’t out of the ordinary...78-80 is warm for sure, but you can think what you want, but that’s nothing extraordinary for SNE in early October imo.   

How can you say that without backing it up with some facts?  It's well above normal.  So you ordinarily expect the first third of October to include temps of that nature? 

It is what it is.

But again, I'm only saying that if it happens as currently modeled. 

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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How can you say that without backing it up with some facts?  It's well above normal.  So you ordinarily expect the first third of October to include temps of that nature? 

It is what it is.

But again, I'm only saying that if it happens as currently modeled. 

This first week of October has not been all that hot imo.  Overnight lows skewing the AN look imo. 

 

We’ve had a lot of warm October’s of late Freak, (and no I don’t have dates and temps..but October’s have been very warm lately), and this October is not all that impressively warm so far imo. AN sure, but I’m not feeling it’s extraordinary so far. 

As I said to Snowman, it’s all good, you can think it’s extraordinary if you want.  But I live here, and most folks that live here would not say the first 6 days of October have been hot.

Maybe next week goes 83-86 for 3 or 4 days...but I’ll take the under on that at this point, just as I did for this week.  

 

   

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

ACATT having problems accepting.

It’s amazing how much that group fights warmth. We’ve furnaced thru almost +6 thru the first 5 days of the month relative to time of year. And next week will probably get us up up +8 for the month. But because a few sheltered valleys in Maine had a frost at 33, and a sleet pellet fell on the Canadian border it hasn’t been endless summer. This crew is something else . 

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