HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Your name is James, that is awesome, James used to be the most popular male baby name in the US Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 It's cute how the title and subtitle of this thread magically changed with the phase change to a -DIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:17 PM, dendrite said: It's cute how the title and subtitle of this thread magically changed with the phase change to a -DIT. Expand Metamorphosis is a beautiful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 The euro ensembles look like a mild period after next week but then reload on the cold pattern. Right around Halloween. We'll have to see if the timing changes or if the pattern doesn't materialize, but that could be a good pattern going into early November for an early season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:17 PM, dendrite said: It's cute how the title and subtitle of this thread magically changed with the phase change to a -DIT. Expand Did you do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Did you do it? Expand Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:17 PM, dendrite said: It's cute how the title and subtitle of this thread magically changed with the phase change to a -DIT. Expand Yeah, but what’s not quite as cute are all the hotel guests up here that are freezing their azzes off in drafty rooms after the resorts were informed that they wouldn’t be uninstalling A/C units until November. They really should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:34 PM, ORH_wxman said: The euro ensembles look like a mild period after next week but then reload on the cold pattern. Right around Halloween. We'll have to see if the timing changes or if the pattern doesn't materialize, but that could be a good pattern going into early November for an early season event. Expand How mild does it look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:59 PM, LurkerBoy said: How mild does it look? Expand 90+, a few lollies to 94-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:59 PM, LurkerBoy said: How mild does it look? Expand It will melt all the skim ice in the puddle at the end of your driveway and in your birdbath . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Intense cold floods in overnight Wednesday, night ... Thursday a.m. dawns head scratching extreme ..relative to present calendar climo. And it's not radiational, either. -8 to -12 C at 850 mb level with 30 mph gusting prior to Halloween is disturbing ... if perhaps not getting the notice it should because we are jaded by extreme-saturation. hm .. Euro not as intense as the NAM ... at the warm end of that, but... either solution are disturbingly early for that sort of depth - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 MET with a 23 at OWD Friday for a low. Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 25F with wind chills in the single digits up high right now. Saw some ferocious wind last night. Few trees down around the area. Summit was in the 70-80mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 First freeze for many incoming. End of the growing season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 3:09 PM, weathafella said: MET with a 23 at OWD Friday for a low. Cold! Expand MEX 19F at CON. 14F at HIE. Afternoon max of 7F on MWN Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 3:28 PM, dendrite said: MEX 19F at CON. 14F at HIE. Afternoon max of 7F on MWN Thursday. Expand That’s respectable in January let alone October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 3:25 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: First freeze for many incoming. End of the growing season Expand We end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 1:17 PM, dendrite said: It's cute how the title and subtitle of this thread magically changed with the phase change to a -DIT. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 After this cold shot reloads into the weekend, another ridge out west develops a high amplitude and another arctic shortwave trough tries to phase with the pacific jet disturbance, this could be the time frame for our first fall nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 12z GFS shows a really high amplitude arctic shortwave jet system entering the Great Lakes around hour 100-108 out could be enough to spawn its own nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 3:50 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Expand "BN pattern continues"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 4:10 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 12z GFS shows a really high amplitude arctic shortwave jet system entering the Great Lakes around hour 100-108 out could be enough to spawn its own nor'easter. Expand What do you mean could? It does become a coastal storm, just not where you want it to. Best forcing/dynamics are well N up by NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 4:28 PM, dendrite said: "BN pattern continues"... Expand Let's revisit that map with dates of 10/1 - 10/31, particularly when the month looks to be split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 3:25 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: First freeze for many incoming. End of the growing season Expand I agree. I touched 32° the other day but this looks like a freeze. I'm not sure what BOX with this PnC forecast for my location: Quote Thursday Sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Expand With clear skies and calm winds, I'd expect more than a 12° drop in temps come morning. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 7:10 PM, MetHerb said: I agree. I touched 32° the other day but this looks like a freeze. I'm not sure what BOX with this PnC forecast for my location: Thursday Sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. With clear skies and calm winds, I'd expect more than a 12° drop in temps come morning. Am I missing something? Expand This air mass coming in is deep, with thicknesses plumbing to an unusually deep sub 525 dam in dale - which for mid October is pushing extremeness. That said... yeah, it's possible the wind doesn't actually go calm? The high is slipping SW of us ...different than retreating NE... that may cause the wind to bend back SW, thus keeping the low levels quasi-better mixing with dry warm advection kicking in over night.... Where it does go "calm" would be restricted to decoupling in favored geographies in the deep interior, but most don't.. The wind just starts veering NW --> WNW toward dark --> WSW by 1am Friday morning at 10 kt wooshes... --> SW at dawn on Friday. Meanwhile, the overnight low temperatures nadir near 11:50 to 1:38 ...after which, steady and/or slowly rises. In fact, just looking at that Euro's 12z run, it does show the thickness plume bodily moving away with a diffuse warm boundary moving quickly through 12z Friday. Heh...could be a spectacular day despite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 7:04 PM, MetHerb said: Let's revisit that map with dates of 10/1 - 10/31, particularly when the month looks to be split. Expand Whoosh maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 7:23 PM, Typhoon Tip said: This air mass coming in is deep, with thicknesses plumbing to an unusually deep sub 525 dam in dale - which for mid October is pushing extremeness. That said... yeah, it's possible the wind doesn't actually go calm? The high is slipping SW of us ...different than retreating NE... that may cause the wind to bend back SW, thus keeping the low levels quasi-better mixing with dry warm advection kicking in over night.... Where it does go "calm" would be restricted to decoupling in favored geographies in the deep interior, but most don't.. The wind just starts veering NW --> WNW toward dark --> WSW by 1am Friday morning at 10 kt wooshes... --> SW at dawn on Friday. Meanwhile, the overnight low temperatures nadir near 11:50 to 1:38 ...after which, steady and/or slowly rises. In fact, just looking at that Euro's 12z run, it does show the thickness plume bodily moving away with a diffuse warm boundary moving quickly through 12z Friday. Heh...could be a spectacular day despite. Expand Yeah, I could see temps bottoming out in the "middle" of the night and going steady. I'm just thinking a 15-20° drop is more likely. I realize I'm only talking a few degrees at the low end but I think 12 is a little too conservative all things considered. You'll get a few degrees drop with sunset and with Dp's in the 20's it would be easy to drop a few more as the wind goes calm before bottoming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 7:38 PM, dendrite said: Whoosh maybe? Expand Nothing but net? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Well anywho... I agree with the general theme/interest scope for wintry expression - anomalously so ... but to what degree, who knows - during the end days of October through early to mid November. The reason(s) for suspecting that ...isn't really even discernible in the operation versions yet. The mean is heavily clustered around a tandem dive in the AO/NAO ... It is hard to know which is dominant in that relationship, as they only partially over-lap domain space. In fact, the NAO is deeper in the mean SD ...so it may in fact be the NAO "pulling" the AO down. Either way, multi-day cycles have persisted with -SD values exceeding anything we have seen since last late February and Early March. Caveat emptor: ...west vs east based, should this blocking episode succeed? don't know - Last February was balmy ... culminating in a bewildering week of warmth mid to 2/3rds of the way through the month. The warmth breaks/displaces away, and ten days later, the NAO tanks. I am not sure that "relay" is in fact unrelated as it is noted the WAA terminating at high latitudes/altitudes often mark the onset of blocking regimes ... We are passing out of a similar eastern N/A ridge over the last week, while these NAO teleconnector at both the CDC and CPC showing a similar corrective behavior. The other aspect is that the lead phases of the PNA and EPO support cold loading on our side of the hemisphere ... and this at large scales also may parlay at cold delivery/efficiency. It strikes me actually as a bit of a redux to 2011 ...which I don't mean to say that's destined to repeat, but a similar enhancing probability for cold and enhancing QPF is acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 7:38 PM, dendrite said: Whoosh maybe? Expand That’s how we read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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