UMB WX Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Hearing Plunging NAO never excites me. Its cute in the fall i suppose to thread the needle on a nice fall snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Waking up to a little white on the ground yet again. 2-3" in the forecast for today. This will be the 4th day this month with measurable snow and the 8th with at least a trace. Average for October is around 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 16 hours ago, UMB WX said: Hearing Plunging NAO never excites me. Its cute in the fall i suppose to thread the needle on a nice fall snow event. Yep all you need to look at is the 12z FV3-GFS to see why I could give a damn about a plunging NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yep all you need to look at is the 12z FV3-GFS to see why I could give a damn about a plunging NAO. It will probably rebound right away if the last 6 months are any indication lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It will probably rebound right away if the last 6 months are any indication lol You know it. I would rather have the NAO slightly negative later on in the season, the thread the needle nonsense right now usually misses here anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Not complaining what so ever, but man my forecast for the next 7-9 days looks zzz. Upper 50’s and tons of sunshine in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 With cleared skies and a wee bit of snow on the ground, it’s down to 24 already. Loading up the stove and goin to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Temperatures here in Northwest Ohio have plunged several degrees below freezing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 After a month of fog, rain, snow, and FOG (!), beautiful blue skies all day long. Even with the breeze, the high of 57 felt warm enough for only a t-shirt. Wasn't sure there was gonna be another day this nice, so I enjoyed it even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, weatherbo said: After a month of fog, rain, snow, and FOG (!), beautiful blue skies all day long. Even with the breeze, the high of 57 felt warm enough for only a t-shirt. Wasn't sure there was gonna be another day this nice, so I enjoyed it even more. Wow warmer than down here. High was 53° after a low in the 20s almost everywhere except 30° at DTW. Clear blue sky. With this being the 2nd official freeze at Detroit, with more in outlying areas, the growing season is most certainly done, after we were suffering in heat less than 2 weeks ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Talk about a month of extremes here locally, on 10/3 we had a high of 90, fast forward to 10/16 we recorded a low of 25. Nice 65 degree spread. These transition months are always fascinating to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 First hard freeze of the season this morning as we dipped to 28. See ya later skeeterz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday. Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas. If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event. Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 On Wednesday it was one of those days where the weather changed every 5 minutes with all types of precip. cycling through. A few times some heavy graupel showers would come with some of them being the largest I've seen. Awesome blue hues near sunset that are incredibly rare around here. The forecast for yesterday and today was mixed up, it was suppose to be sunny with few clouds this afternoon and in the mid to upper 50s but we only had sun at noon and now its overcast. Getting colder too. I don't check my local wx daily anymore because they can't even get the next 12 hours straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 21 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday. Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas. If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event. Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though. Something to keep an eye on. Latest DVN forecast downplayed the winds a bit compared to the morning crew. They bumped wind gusts from 45mph down to 40mph. Always interesting to see the battle between the different shifts as everyone has different opinions. I feel the previous forecast was more on target, and in fact I think there's 50+mph gust potential, and a wind advisory should likely be needed. Latest HRRR has over 50kts now down below 850mb, which is significant as mixing should reach to near 800mb if the forecast soundings are correct. That would imply warning criteria is a possibility for a short time. EDIT: Just saw a wind advisory was posted for the northwestern DVN area. That will need to be expanded for the rest of the cwa eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 I agree with you cyclone. Could definitely see some areas near/perhaps over 50 mph. The RAP looks pretty windy too. The potential seems a bit less around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 You know it's early season when it has trouble snowing with sub 528 thicknesses. Precip looks convectivey though so it could look interesting under the heavier showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/18/2018 at 11:42 PM, cyclone77 said: Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday. Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas. If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event. Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though. Something to keep an eye on. Lows in southeast Michigan ranged from the low 20s in outlying areas to the warm spot of 30ﾟ at DTW on Thursday. The 1st official freeze was 2 days prior to that. We went from summer like heat to growing season ending cold in a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Fairly robust snow showers this morning. Ground is covered with about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbo said: Fairly robust snow showers this morning. Ground is covered with about an inch. Some of that will be moving southeast towards Northwest Ohio by this afternoon and evening. Expecting a few snowflakes here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 So far, much of eastern Iowa is seeing gusts to the mid 40s. There are a couple 55+ reports from Waterloo to Mason City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Very convective look to the showers/storms so far today near Grand Rapids, Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 59 mph gust reported in Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 0.25-0.70" diameter inch hail reported near Grand Rapids MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Snow ripping for Wisconsin game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Graupel falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Flint has 43 degrees after the rain started, with a nearly-severe wind gust of 56mph. That's quite a convective storm for these low temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Graupel falling here Heavy graupel and some nice gusts as these squalls work through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 Rockford gusted to 61 mph. May have been convectively enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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