Stebo Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Newberry in the UP 50 right now, 100 miles ESE Rogers City 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Hit 84 here today. Dew of 69 at the moment. Gotta love 80s in eastern Iowa with tornadoes, and mid 40s in northwest Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 IND is running over +15 through the first 9 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Man the overnight low at ORD is going to be obscene for October (might not drop below like 73), but it will go for naught since it won't hold all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: Man the overnight low at ORD is going to be obscene for October (might not drop below like 73), but it will go for naught since it won't hold all day. ORD dropped to 70 at 7:00 AM, now up to 72 before the plunge begins tonight. The max/min yesterday was 85/70, crazy for October 9. The low of 70 set a new max low temp for the date, and the 2nd latest 70+ min on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: ORD dropped to 70 at 7:00 AM, now up to 72 before the plunge begins tonight. Yeah, I messed up on that one. Doesn't matter anyway though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, I messed up on that one. Doesn't matter anyway though. Yep. Could be near freezing tomorrow night...should finally get rid of the mosquitoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 That Friday system that was talked about earlier looks like it could be just cold enough to potentially mix in some snow, especially if the ECMWF and NAM are right (they drop freezing levels around 1500 feet). Still some differences with northward extent of precip, but some places in the IA/IL/IN area might see their first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 4:59 PM, cyclone77 said: Hit 84 here today. Dew of 69 at the moment. Gotta love 80s in eastern Iowa with tornadoes, and mid 40s in northwest Iowa. ...and even more contrast further nw with 18" of snowfall in eastern ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 hours ago, XfireLOW said: ...and even more contrast further nw with 18" of snowfall in eastern ND. Very impressive. 39 with a wind chill of 30 atm, which is the coldest of the season so far. Should have a hard time getting out of the 40s, which will be about 35 degrees cooler than Mon-Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Feels amazing outside as the temperature keeps dropping. Put my upstairs bedroom air conditioner in the basement for the next 7.5 months. No doubt the furnace will be going and some point this weekend, we will see how long I can last lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 38 degrees with a stiff wind in Central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Rain showers have now changed to snow showers, 35. No accumulation until perhaps tonight where a coating could be expected. total rain from storm was 3.75”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 LOT afd on tomorrow Of note with this precipitation and the antecedent dry air is potential for strong evaporative top down cooling shown on the 12km NAM and 3km NAMNest soundings, with a brief period of wet snow mixing in not entirely out of the realm of possibility. However, with other guidance warmer and the stronger evaporative cooling tied to likely heavier precip rates, kept p-type as all light rain. Regarding high temperatures, they should be in the lower to mid 40s area wide given the chilly air mass and overcast. Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Really hoping this blast of fall air can accelerate the fall foliage around here, everything is still pretty green. NAM had tried to illustrate the possibility of our first snowflakes tomorrow. Lol. Either way frost warning tonight, we are getting closer folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 We have had sleet and some snow showers here in Central Wisconsin this late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 56 minutes ago, Chambana said: Really hoping this blast of fall air can accelerate the fall foliage around here, everything is still pretty green. NAM had tried to illustrate the possibility of our first snowflakes tomorrow. Lol. Either way frost warning tonight, we are getting closer folks. I'd rather it be warm but I'm rooting for snow tomorrow... I can only remember one time where I went less than 6 months between last snow and first snow. This would make it since my last flakes came on April 19. Looks like the northern edge of the precip shield will be somewhere around here, and as the LOT afd mentioned, it may take steadier precip rates to mix/change to snow. Although sfc temps are warm, the models have 925 mb temps just below 0C so I think this has a reasonable chance of happening especially where the precip intensity is a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd rather it be warm but I'm rooting for snow tomorrow... I can only remember one time where I went less than 6 months between last snow and first snow. This would make it since my last flakes came on April 19. Looks like the northern edge of the precip shield will be somewhere around here, and as the LOT afd mentioned, it may take steadier precip rates to mix/change to snow. Although sfc temps are warm, the models have 925 mb temps just below 0C so I think this has a reasonable chance of happening especially where the precip intensity is a little better. I’m ready for cooler weather, but the first snowflakes might be a little early lol. Although, I do remember sometime in the 3rd week of October 2013 we had flakes flying in the air. Really looking back 2013 was just an incredible weather year. So many extreme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Temps are really crashing under these clear skies, already down to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Looked outside and the deck has a light coating of snow... just a skiff, but rain/snow seem fairly reg in the extended. I’d love an Indian summer before the snow comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Chambana said: Temps are really crashing under these clear skies, already down to 45. Temps crashing here too. Down to 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2018 Author Share Posted October 12, 2018 Watching the trends on this evening's HRRR and RAP runs, they tend to mix in/change to snow in Iowa, but then the precip turns to all rain by midday/afternoon with eastward extent into IL/IN. It's barely mid October, so that doesn't seem too crazy??? I have an issue though. When you look at forecast soundings in the precip area, they have dry adiabatic lapse rates from about 925 mb to the surface with even a superadiabatic layer near the surface. That would not be surprising in sunny weather, but it looks pretty unrealistic with clouds/precip and with no marine influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Looked outside and the deck has a light coating of snow... just a skiff, but rain/snow seem fairly reg in the extended. I’d love an Indian summer before the snow comes. Same here, it always hurts when I put the Hammock away for the winter. Once mid November comes bring on the snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Watching the trends on this evening's HRRR and RAP runs, they tend to mix in/change to snow in Iowa, but then the precip turns to all rain by midday/afternoon with eastward extent into IL/IN. It's barely mid October, so that doesn't seem too crazy??? I have an issue though. When you look at forecast soundings in the precip area, they have dry adiabatic lapse rates from about 925 mb to the surface with even a superadiabatic layer near the surface. That would not be surprising in sunny weather, but it looks pretty unrealistic with clouds/precip and with no marine influences. Yeah the superadiabatic layer wouldn't make sense. With dews near or below freezing temps should crash pretty quickly with any precip that makes it to the surface. The RGEM seems to handle precip types well, and keeps the snow longer than some of the other guidance tomorrow. I'm expecting to see some wet flakes here around late morning, or early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2018 Author Share Posted October 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah the superadiabatic layer wouldn't make sense. With dews near or below freezing temps should crash pretty quickly with any precip that makes it to the surface. The RGEM seems to handle precip types well, and keeps the snow longer than some of the other guidance tomorrow. I'm expecting to see some wet flakes here around late morning, or early afternoon. I kind of feel like the model temps should be taken with a grain of salt in these situations, especially since we are just talking flakes vs. no flakes and not accumulations. I'm much more interested in the temps just off the deck. Anybody that is able to stay a degree or two below freezing at 925 mb should be able to mix in some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Narrowly avoided a freeze, 33 degrees this morning. Could see your breathe out there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Nice frost and freeze here. Got down to 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Picked up our first LES snow last night, had a coating on my roof of my house and pole barn. NWS down the road made a snowman, they have been doing this for the last couple years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Nice frost and freeze here. Got down to 31. I spoke to soon. We indeed did have a freeze this morning, temps had warmed to 34 an hour before sunrise, and then dropped to 31 right before. Nice frost here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Didn't get a freeze here. Clouds stuck around too long last night. Still got to 35 which is still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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