Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: 81/72 here. Feels like July 72 is about as dewey as it gets at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 Looks like 2 or possibly 3 more 80 degree days at ORD next week (Wednesday is tricky), and Tuesday may even try to approach the daily record high if there's enough sun. That would put the 2018 total of 80+ days at 101 or 102, which would be just short of the record 103 days. I highly doubt there will be another one after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like 2 or possibly 3 more 80 degree days at ORD next week (Wednesday is tricky), and Tuesday may even try to approach the daily record high if there's enough sun. That would put the 2018 total of 80+ days at 101 or 102, which would be just short of the record 103 days. I highly doubt there will be another one after next week. Speaking of Tuesday, the record low may be in more jeopardy than the high. Record low is 68 from all the way back in 1879. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Only 58 here under thick clouds and a north breeze. Lots of standing water around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Storms finally blew through the area, dropping much needed rain, and temps respectively. Before the storms we peaked at 88. It was hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 A nice cool cloudy couple of days. The colors are starting to really come out here in central Wisconsin. Today's high at home was 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 The sounding this evening had a PWAT of 1.79" which if my research is right the highest observed PWAT at DTX of all time for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: The sounding this evening had a PWAT of 1.79" which if my research is right the highest observed PWAT at DTX of all time for October. Yeah that looks right (we might be looking at the same site?). Pretty crazy that the old record occurred on the second to last day of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Yeah that looks right (we might be looking at the same site?). Pretty crazy that the old record occurred on the second to last day of the month. SPC Sounding climatology and yeah probably a remnant tropical system would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 I know it wasn't DTX, but DTW maxed at 72 for the dewpoint today on the 5 min obs, which would have also destroyed the record for the month. No sounding has had a dewpoint over 70 before, it looks like we have more chances though this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 7 hours ago, Stebo said: I know it wasn't DTX, but DTW maxed at 72 for the dewpoint today on the 5 min obs, which would have also destroyed the record for the month. No sounding has had a dewpoint over 70 before, it looks like we have more chances though this week. How far back does sounding data go? Unlike temps, precip, snowfall, there is no easy way to look up dewpoint data. Other than picking a day and looking at the hourly obs, and even then that is just an hourly ob, no intra hour.i glanced at the hot spell of oct 2007 and it had a max hourly dew of 69°, and the hot spell of 1963 was very dry wetbulbs. I looked up a few other warm days in October, and found dews in the mid and upper 60s, but no other 70ﾟ, but I only looked up a few. Based on high and low temperatures, there was a very extended warm and humid spell in October 1879, but I cannot access any hourly data that far back. It's always easy to see when a record high or low temperature of any kind is broken, but dewpoints are kind of our hidden data point. Looking like monday thru wed is very warm then the first real cold blast of autumn hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Interesting to see that high just sitting off the coast this time of year, it’s essentially a July weather pattern happening. Everybody is probably going to get sick in the middle of the week as that cold front puts us at true Fall conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Interesting to see that high just sitting off the coast this time of year, it’s essentially a July weather pattern happening. Everybody is probably going to get sick in the middle of the week as that cold front puts us at true Fall conditions We are going to be going from well above normal temperatures to well below normal temperatures. It will be a very sharp contrast. Highs in the 80s as late as Wednesday could become highs in the 40s a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Hmm, 50s with cold rain and east winds today. Tomorrow back to the 80s with breezy south winds and near 70 dews. Same for Tue, and then by Thu may have a hard time getting out of the 40s. Gotta love October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: How far back does sounding data go? Unlike temps, precip, snowfall, there is no easy way to look up dewpoint data. Other than picking a day and looking at the hourly obs, and even then that is just an hourly ob, no intra hour.i glanced at the hot spell of oct 2007 and it had a max hourly dew of 69°, and the hot spell of 1963 was very dry wetbulbs. I looked up a few other warm days in October, and found dews in the mid and upper 60s, but no other 70ﾟ, but I only looked up a few. Based on high and low temperatures, there was a very extended warm and humid spell in October 1879, but I cannot access any hourly data that far back. It's always easy to see when a record high or low temperature of any kind is broken, but dewpoints are kind of our hidden data point. Looking like monday thru wed is very warm then the first real cold blast of autumn hits. Sounding climatology on SPC for DTX's CWA goes back to 1948 but it moved around a bit. First at Toledo to 1951 then MTC until 1956, Flint until 1994 then DTX from when that office was commissioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: We are going to be going from well above normal temperatures to well below normal temperatures. It will be a very sharp contrast. Highs in the 80s as late as Wednesday could become highs in the 40s a few days later. Highs in the mid to upper 50s you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, Stebo said: Highs in the mid to upper 50s you mean. I don't know, Sunday and Monday look colder than that on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I don't know, Sunday and Monday look colder than that on the models. I'll take the over at this point, models tend to correct warmer especially with cold that significant. I remember the last cold blast being that we were going to barely hit 50, ended up much warmer than that, just seasonally cool nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I'll take the over at this point, models tend to correct warmer especially with cold that significant. I remember the last cold blast being that we were going to barely hit 50, ended up much warmer than that, just seasonally cool nights. I guess we will see. I don't remember any cold snaps this fall yet where we were forecast to barely hit 50ﾟ. It is true that models seem to overdo cold shots early on in the cold season, however at this time pretty much every model shows high temperatures colder than mid 50s on a few days between Saturday and Monday. Cloudcover and 850s once we are closer will ultimately be the determining factor, but it certainly looks like we go from anomalous warmth to anomalous cold this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Anyone catch this on the FV3 GFS? Yeah, not likely, but a sign of the seasonal shift more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anyone catch this on the FV3 GFS? Yeah, not likely, but a sign of the seasonal shift more than anything. I always like to say I get ready for snow November 1st because I love fall so much. But obviously if it actually was going to snow, I would love it lol. Spring is always summer battling to overtake Winter, and likewise Fall is Winter battling to overtake summer. Just like last April, a mid month ice storm and a snowfall several days after that felt like the depths of Winter, but summer was not far off. Just like the beginning of this week will feel like we have reversed back to mid summer but Winter is really not far at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 GEM has it too. Sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GEM has it too. Sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 74/74 here today. Unbelievable Td for October 7th. Swamp a$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, IWXwx said: 74/74 here today. Unbelievable Td for October 7th. Swamp a$$ Hopefully the high dew stuff pays off at some point in terms of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 It didn't work yesterday. T-Storm Watch and a warned storm to our west. We ended up with two garden variety storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: It didn't work yesterday. T-Storm Watch and a warned storm to our west. We ended up with two garden variety storms. I guess I meant in the next several weeks. Hopefully we see top of the line moisture with a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, IWXwx said: 74/74 here today. Unbelievable Td for October 7th. Swamp a$$ Unbelievable for October. Crazy difference early fall has been between the lower sub and up here. Currently 38/36 with a northeast breeze... Fire in the stove, a roast in the slow cooker...watching the leaves fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Unbelievable for October. Crazy difference early fall has been between the lower sub and up here. Currently 38/36 with a northeast breeze... Fire in the stove, a roast in the slow cooker...watching the leaves fall. There's one tree on my block that is starting to turn yellow but everything else is totally green. Maples though which typically turn later. An early season snowstorm would be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's one tree on my block that is starting to turn yellow but everything else is totally green. Maples though which typically turn later. An early season snowstorm would be trouble. Sounds like there is much more color here than your area, and you are just slightly south. Far northern indiana right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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