nwohweather Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Funny to see these videos, on Saturday we hit 60+ mph winds heading to West Lafayette for the OSU-Purdue game. I see on the storm reports it had a confirmed 64 mph gust and it definitely verified. Downdraft was so strong it brought snow down to the surface at 41° degrees and was downing trees all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Mainly clear skies tonight in #NWOhioWx. Not a "one number" place tonight in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Thick, low clouds this morning. My favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Such an odd month. Incredibly warm with July type weather to start, and then the back half has been nothing but chilly. Cannot believe we hit 85° just 16 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 Looks like late next week/weekend is the next time to watch for a potentially bigger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looks like late next week/weekend is the next time to watch for a potentially bigger system. Yeah, it's looking... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Looks like another round of very strong winds on Sunday for eastern Iowa and western IL. Somewhat similar setup to last Saturday's setup with the wind profiles. The difference this time will be more cloudiness, so mixing may not be quite as efficient. Also won't have the intense precip squalls to mix down even higher momentum air like what happened over northeast IL and IN. Forecast soundings out this way show mixing to between 900 and 850mb. Some soundings off the latest 3km NAM show over 50kts at the top of the mixing layer just west of the main cloud shield over eastern IA around 18z. Last Sat the 3km underplayed winds in the 850mb layer while the HRRR forecast winds 5-10kts higher in that layer. The HRRR ended up being correct, so I'll be curious to see what the forecast sounding look like from the HRRR as we get closer. At this point it looks like 40-45mph gusts are a lock for the DVN area (especially on Iowa side), but 50mph+ gust potential is there just to the west of where the western edge of the cloud shield sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Looking at this morning's latest guidance, it's looking like a period of high wind warning level winds will occur about 50 miles either side of a line from Mankato MN to Springfield IL. 50-60kts at the top of the mixing layer showing up on various soundings along that corridor as the speed max at 850mb races southeastward. Looks like a good chance at 55-60mph gusts for a few hours along that line, which will be just to the west of the thicker clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2018 Author Share Posted October 27, 2018 Pretty much concur with your thoughts, cyclone. Should not be a problem realizing gusts near/into warning criteria in the corridor you mentioned. Looks like the GFS gets stronger winds farther north but we'll have to see. Like you, I will be curious to see the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Pretty much concur with your thoughts, cyclone. Should not be a problem realizing gusts near/into warning criteria in the corridor you mentioned. Looks like the GFS gets stronger winds farther north but we'll have to see. Like you, I will be curious to see the HRRR. Yeah interestingly the GFS shows the punch at 850mb quite a bit further northeast than the NAM/HRRR. Also keeps the edge of the cloud shield further northeast as well. GFS soundings show mixing all the way to 800mb in the sunshine, and taps into 50-55kt flow. The MSP discussion mentions a max of 45mph gusts in the favored corridor in their cwa, but they will likely see 55-60+ in a portion of their western and southern CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Not much else to talk about, so might as well keep talking about the wind potential lol. Latest HRRR continues to look impressive, and actually has things a bit further east than various guidance had been showing the past few days. Western edge of the cloud shield is about 50-100 miles further east than some earlier runs, and hence the higher wind potential has moved a bit east with it. Latest HRRR soundings are showing better mixing as well, up to near 850mb in some cases. Winds of 50kts are showing up as low as 900mb, so with 50-55kts at the upper mixing range it certainly looks like 50-60mph winds are going to happen. It now looks like this setup is nearly identical to the placement of last Saturday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Here are some very neat ensemble plume graphs, for multiple variables, available from Weather.us: https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble and also NOAA: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html graphic from Weather.us web site is shown below. The temperature is dropping in Denver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Not much else to talk about, so might as well keep talking about the wind potential lol. Latest HRRR continues to look impressive, and actually has things a bit further east than various guidance had been showing the past few days. Western edge of the cloud shield is about 50-100 miles further east than some earlier runs, and hence the higher wind potential has moved a bit east with it. Latest HRRR soundings are showing better mixing as well, up to near 850mb in some cases. Winds of 50kts are showing up as low as 900mb, so with 50-55kts at the upper mixing range it certainly looks like 50-60mph winds are going to happen. It now looks like this setup is nearly identical to the placement of last Saturday's event.Woke up to a wind advisory this morning for EC Illinois. I truly hope it’s not like last weekend. I recently moved out into the fields of Kankakee County and that wind last week did a number on my property. Gate blew off, large branches down everywhere, raining corn stalks, lost power for 13 hours. A fun watch but a messy clean up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 The western edge of the clouds is from Waterloo to the Quad Cities, and that's where the highest gusts have been so far. Waterloo: 52 mph Cedar Rapids: 49 mph Iowa City: 53 mph Davenport: 49 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The western edge of the clouds is from Waterloo to the Quad Cities, and that's where the highest gusts have been so far. Waterloo: 52 mph Cedar Rapids: 49 mph Iowa City: 53 mph Davenport: 49 mph A little further southwest than what the HRRR was showing last night. Cutting down on mixing a bit over the western edge of the cloud shield. Moline is gusting to 51mph now. Overall not as impressive of an event as I was thinking yesterday, but after last Saturday's winds anything less than that will seem pretty meh lol. I'm guessing the mixing was a bit overdone on the guidance, or winds aren't quite as strong as modeled in the 900-850mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2018 Author Share Posted October 28, 2018 55 mph gust at Champaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 YYZ recorded 0.8" yesterday, its first measurable snow of the season. As per a tweet on twitter, it was the snowiest October day at YYZ since Oct 21, 1981. Let the season begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 It rained steady all day yesterday, dark. There wasn't a single break or stop to it until late. There has only been a few hours of sunlight during the last few weeks. Very most bottom shelf October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Temps near 70. Feels nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Sounds like the NWS is gonna begin issuing snow squall warnings on 11/1(Thursday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 Ended up essentially average at ORD... +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Most places ended up between a few tenths of a degree above or below average. So essentially it is going to be considered widespread an average October temperature wise. Obviously that could not be further from the truth. The first 3rd of the month was basically August at the last 2/3 of the month was basically November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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