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2018 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest


WxUSAF
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Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol

Wait until after the deadline. lol

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  • 2 weeks later...

34 entries this year.  Our average values are:

DCA: 11/17/18

BWI: 11/3/18

IAD: 10/30/18

RIC: 11/16/18

Tie: 4.03"

 

So a week to 10 days past climo for the most part.  DCA value is close to climo I believe.  Looks like next week has the first legit threat, particularly for the non-DCA locations.  IAD has 1.02" of rain to date for reference. 

 

 

2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx

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35 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Some of us still underestimate the radiational cooling of Richmond. BWI got down to 35 this morning, DCA to 43, and RIC to 38. For DCA to hit 32, they almost need an arctic blast, while RIC can do it with the passage of a mid-fall cold front followed by clear skies and calm winds.

I would think that the water around DC matters in the early fall too.  I don't know what the temp of that water is, but I imagine it's still pretty warm.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think that the water around DC matters in the early fall too.  I don't know what the temp of that water is, but I imagine it's still pretty warm.

It's about 58 degrees per this site:

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/dc/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00400=on&format=gif_default&site_no=01646500&period=&begin_date=2018-10-12&end_date=2018-10-19

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LWX note about where yesterday's freeze was:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018

...GROWING SEASON ENDED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA, THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THEREFORE, THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED, AND FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED THIS
YEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

EASTERN AND WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY MD
CLARKE COUNTY VA
EASTERN AND WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY VA
FREDERICK COUNTY VA
PAGE COUNTY VA
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY VA
SHENANDOAH COUNTY VA
WARREN COUNTY VA
BERKELEY COUNTY WV
EASTERN AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTY WV
EASTERN AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTY WV
EASTERN AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTY WV
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV
HARDY COUNTY WV
JEFFERSON COUNTY WV
MORGAN COUNTY WV

$$

 

 

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56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

BWI hit 32 on the intrahour. RIC fell short.

I'm pretty impressed. I always go with BWI and RIC on or around the same dates, and didn't think we'd get enough of a cool down to get BWI there just yet. Hopefully Richmond can hold off for a couple more weeks. ;)

DCA...forget it.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎11‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 1:20 AM, Tenman Johnson said:

DCA and Ric on 10Th?

The actual date would be the 11th.

NWS is calling for RIC to hit it. It's warmed up to 31F at DCA, so close call.

What a switch since 11 Oct.

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On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 3:31 AM, arlwx said:

The actual date would be the 11th.

NWS is calling for RIC to hit it. It's warmed up to 31F at DCA, so close call.

What a switch since 11 Oct.

Update:  NWS is calling for 30F for DCA and 27F for RIC.

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