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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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50 minutes ago, sferic said:

With all this warmth, let's go back 31 years ago to October 4th, 1987

Huge snowstorm north and NE of NYC

NW Jersey and Northern  Westchester had 3 inches while further North way over a foot.

I remember just 30 to 40 miles up the thruway from NYC it was snowing as I was in it. WCBS AM also reported a sleet pellet in Hicksville NY

What a storm

snow.JPG

i remember that storm it  happened on the last day of the regular season in baseball.. nyc got down into the upper 30.s

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

^^^^^^^

Don, it looks like we are on track for another top 5 latest date like last October.

Latest NYC dates to drop below 50 degrees:

#1...10-20.....2005

#2...10-16.....2017....1995....1955

#3...10-15....1969....1898

#4...10-14....2002

#5...10-12....2007....1910...1909

IMG_0268.thumb.JPG.86f445e29beef999bd4482acd3ce4f20.JPG

 

It looks that way.

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Next 7 days averaging 71degs., or about 12degs. AN.

RWTT still does not indicate any trough in the northeast until maybe the second week of Nov.    I do not think any drop off during  the 15th. to 19th. holds.   Halloween costumes should be light colored and loose fitting. lol!   RWTT has ridgeing here with big anomaly at that time.

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5 hours ago, sferic said:

With all this warmth, let's go back 31 years ago to October 4th, 1987

Huge snowstorm north and NE of NYC

NW Jersey and Northern  Westchester had 3 inches while further North way over a foot.

I remember just 30 to 40 miles up the thruway from NYC it was snowing as I was in it. WCBS AM also reported a sleet pellet in Hicksville NY

What a storm

snow.JPG

I actually drove up north from LI that morning to see where the accumulations were.  I believe it was a Saturday morning.  There was a coating on grassy surfaces from about central Westchester on north however it was just cloudy.  I drove up I-684 to I-84 going west to see how accumulations were in the high country to the west of Brewster.  Once I started going up that grade accumulations started to increase rapidly.  I don’t think I got as far as Stormville before being forced to turn around due to heavy snow.  At that point there was at least 6” on the ground. It was a classic early season elevation event.

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 7 days averaging 71degs., or about 12degs. AN.

RWTT still does not indicate any trough in the northeast until maybe the second week of Nov.    I do not think any drop off during  the 15th. to 19th. holds.   Halloween costumes should be light colored and loose fitting. lol!   RWTT has ridgeing here with big anomaly at that time.

I don't buy any drop off either, models already showing more ridging next weekend. Anomalies will be through the roof.

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Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 12degs. AN.    Could be +11 by the 13th. at this rate.    That would mean the last 19 days of the month must be under about +5, or we will set a new monthly record.

I had 75.5degs. at 10PM last night.   It is under 65degs. , now (5am).

Still another 8 or 9 days of double digit 850mb. T's.    By mid-month,  7C is normal, and it has been single digit since Oct. started.

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models are showing a trough split around the middle of October. So rather than a deep trough coming east, a piece gets left behind near the West Coast. Any cool down looks brief as the piece of energy near the West Coast helps pump the ridge over the East later in October.

New run

gfs-ens_T850a_us_57.thumb.png.b250a9a2ad5b8f04b65b69f49e2ee53a.png

Old run

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.thumb.png.530e918a4073b408d87c1d64c9400c3f.png

 

 

SO no seasonable weather this month?

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5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 12degs. AN.    Could be +11 by the 13th. at this rate.    That would mean the last 19 days of the month must be under about +5, or we will set a new monthly record.

I had 75.5degs. at 10PM last night.   It is under 65degs. , now (5am).

Still another 8 or 9 days of double digit 850mb. T's.    By mid-month,  7C is normal, and it has been single digit since Oct. started.

Wasn't last October record warm?

 

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Several stations are already in the top 5 highest number of 60 degree minimums with more to come over the next week or so. Notice how many of the top years were in the 2010's.

60 degree or warmer minimums through 10-4

White Plains

#1...98 days....1959

#2...96 days....2012...2011

#3...94 days....2018....so far

#4...93 days....2016

#5..92 days.....2015

Islip

#1...109 days...2015

#2..107 days....2011

#3..105 days....2017

#4..103 days...2016

#5..102 days....2018 so far

LGA

#1...137 days....2007

#2....133 days...2016

#3....132 days...2012...2010

#4...131 days...2018 so far

#5..129.days....1991

 

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30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Believe it or not I saw some color change on the Thruway in Westchester at the end of August.

There are always some trees that turn very early. Whether it's due to soil chemistry or something else I don't know but, there are a few trees that change early every year by me and it's always the same trees or at least the same group of trees.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

There are always some trees that turn very early. Whether it's due to soil chemistry or something else I don't know but, there are a few trees that change early every year by me and it's always the same trees or at least the same group of trees.

sometimes it's diseased or stressed trees that go early

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Wasn't last October record warm?

 

October 2017 was among three warmest Octobers in many cities in the Northeast. Select average temperatures and rankings:

Allentown: 60.1° 2nd warmest October
Atlantic City: 62.4° 2nd warmest October
Boston: 61.4° 2nd warmest October
Bridgeport: 62.3° warmest October on record
Harrisburg: 61.2° 4th warmest
Hartford: 59.9° warmest October on record
Islip: 61.9° warmest October on record
New Brunswick: 60.6° 3rd warmest
New York City: 64.1° warmest October on record
Newark: 63.8° warmest October on record
Philadelphia: 64.5° 2nd warmest
Providence: 61.2° 2nd warmest

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Several stations are already in the top 5 highest number of 60 degree minimums with more to come over the next week or so. Notice how many of the top years were in the 2010's.

60 degree or warmer minimums through 10-4

White Plains

#1...98 days....1959

#2...96 days....2012...2011

#3...94 days....2018....so far

#4...93 days....2016

#5..92 days.....2015

Islip

#1...109 days...2015

#2..107 days....2011

#3..105 days....2017

#4..103 days...2016

#5..102 days....2018 so far

LGA

#1...137 days....2007

#2....133 days...2016

#3....132 days...2012...2010

#4...131 days...2018 so far

#5..129.days....1991

 

This might be the most depressing set of stats regarding tri state climate I've ever seen. 

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4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

There are always some trees that turn very early. Whether it's due to soil chemistry or something else I don't know but, there are a few trees that change early every year by me and it's always the same trees or at least the same group of trees.

It seems like standalone specimen trees and those near roads/streams/other breaks in the landscape show signs of color first, and remain well ahead of the pack until stick season. Driving up NY 28 up to Woodstock and beyond this week you'd think the area was squarely at peak, but chuck the drone up somewhere and the forests are still like 85% green. Some of the old faithful trees you talk about are as vibrant as ever this year so far, at least up this way

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22 hours ago, sferic said:

With all this warmth, let's go back 31 years ago to October 4th, 1987

Huge snowstorm north and NE of NYC

NW Jersey and Northern  Westchester had 3 inches while further North way over a foot.

I remember just 30 to 40 miles up the thruway from NYC it was snowing as I was in it. WCBS AM also reported a sleet pellet in Hicksville NY

What a storm

snow.JPG

I was out in CO that year and we had a very early season round of snow in September that put down enough that we were skiing off the divide in top of the boots deep on 9/20 and by the 23rd it was deep enough to be out on snowmobiles and doing some decent backcountry skiing. The first couple of days we were using 4x4's to do shuttle runs and on the 22nd I was one of the last trucks off the pass in my Landcruiser FJ55 with snow up to the hood by the end of the day. Fun times :) 

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