donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The main question is when the developing El Nino finally begins to influence the 500 mb pattern. This month so far is a very warm La Nina composite like we saw last year. But the pattern flipped cooler last November and December matching La Nina climo timing. A shift to El Nino this year could be milder due to the warmer El Nino composites for November and December. October has started with a 500 mb pattern that features a ridge in the east and trough in the west in a fashion that is not dissimilar to October 2002. By the third week of October, a trough developed in the East. However, the current emerging El Niño event is weaker than the 2002-03 ENSO event was at this stage. It wouldn't surprise me if attempts by thr trough to shift into the East meet resistance from the seemingly ever-present western Atlantic ridge. If so, troughs in the East could prove to be transient through the remainder of the month. Overall, October still remains well on course to be warmer than normal in the East, especially over the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday's rainfall in New York City was 0.69". Total precipitation for 2018 is now 48.52". That ranks 2018 as the 43rd wettest year, just behind 1969 when 48.54" precipitation fell. Bridgeport picked up 2.83". Another 2 plus here , over 58 inches for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: October has started with a 500 mb pattern that features a ridge in the east and trough in the west in a fashion that is not dissimilar to October 2002. By the third week of October, a trough developed in the East. However, the current emerging El Niño event is weaker than the 2002-03 ENSO event was at this stage. It wouldn't surprise me if attempts by thr trough to shift into the East meet resistance from the seemingly ever-present western Atlantic ridge. If so, troughs in the East could prove to be transient through the remainder of the month. Overall, October still remains well on course to be warmer than normal in the East, especially over the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions. It's interesting how the week 2 guidance continues to underestimate the staying power of the WAR pattern. The week 2 range EPS for the current period was pretty bad. The magnitude of the error was probably compounded by the active MJO 8-1. EPS forecast Verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 The GFS shows way above normal temperature anomalies overhead more or less the entire run thanks to the mega ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS shows way above normal temperature anomalies overhead more or less the entire run thanks to the mega ridge. going to be some ridiculous postive deparatures by 10/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Regardless of your temperature preference, we have been experiencing and are expected to experience more beautiful weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: going to be some ridiculous postive deparatures by 10/15 The RWTT still does not show a BN period till the second week of Nov. We will be lucky to get two BN days through the 18th. on the most optimistic output intrepretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The RWTT still does not show a BN period till the second week of Nov. We will be lucky to get two BN days through the 18th. on the most optimistic output intrepretation. Given the WAR/SST anomolies, I would buy into that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Way out in the long range at this point, but look for a tropical threat in about two weeks up this way. System develops near the FL Keys and comes up through the FL panhandle after merging with a trough, riding the front up the coast. An alternative scenario is that it develops further East over the Bahamas and then comes North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 2 hours ago, rgwp96 said: Another 2 plus here , over 58 inches for the year That's very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It's interesting how the week 2 guidance continues to underestimate the staying power of the WAR pattern. The week 2 range EPS for the current period was pretty bad. The magnitude of the error was probably compounded by the active MJO 8-1. EPS forecast Verification It will be interesting to see if the WAR pattern continues to wind up stronger than predicted in the extended range. Certainly, the MJO progression helped. The Atlantic SSTAs may also be contributing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 3 hours ago, rgwp96 said: Another 2 plus here , over 58 inches for the year We got pounded with the rain last night. Lot of lightning too. Beautiful day out there. Sunny and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 The bottom falls out on the 12z GFS around mid-month with highs possibly not even reaching 50 degrees in most spots on the 16th and our possible first frost, especially N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 I can deal with 70s in October as long as dews stay manageable but 80s are just depressing. On that note, only the GFS has low 80s for tomorrow, with the 3km NAM being especially mild with low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The bottom falls out on the 12z GFS around mid-month with highs possibly not even reaching 50 degrees in most spots on the 16th and our possible first frost, especially N&W. Early October was supposed to be cold too. Unless it’s within 5 days it’s fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Early October was supposed to be cold too. Unless it’s within 5 days it’s fantasy This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240. That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240. That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up. Reminds me of the winter of 01-02 and 11-12 the cold air was always 10 days away-hope that's not a bad sign for this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240. That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up. 68/50 is normal for this time of year, by the 12 it is 64/47. A step down is natural. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 The +NAO/WAR pattern since May has been off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 54 minutes ago, psv88 said: 68/50 is normal for this time of year, by the 12 it is 64/47. A step down is natural. That GFS "blast" will quickly turn into a brief return to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Reminds me of the winter of 01-02 and 11-12 the cold air was always 10 days away-hope that's not a bad sign for this year.... Almost no analog connection to those years. I think I'd be more weary of an incoming warm, snowless winter if September/October were cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Continuing the theme of the minimum departures running higher than the maximums. TEMPERATURE (F)...LGA TODAY MAXIMUM 77 154 PM 85 2000 70 7 MINIMUM 67 556 AM 40 1974 56 11 AVERAGE 72 63 9 TEMPERATURE (F)...ISP TODAY MAXIMUM 77 155 PM 80 2002 68 9 2000 MINIMUM 64 638 AM 34 2003 50 14 AVERAGE 71 59 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Sundog said: That GFS "blast" will quickly turn into a brief return to normal. Yep. It's so bad people have a low of 55 and think its below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Despite all of the warmth, I don't think NYC has had a record high temperature. Daily highs haven't been that impressive despite the consistent warmth and high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 79 here today with blue dome skies. 0.82” with last night’s event + hours of lightning. I literally couldn’t ask for better October weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 I'm sure that we can only speculate about the future of our temps being way above or way below normal. If I recall correctly there wasn't any rain in the forecast for the entire week as late as sunday---and we see how that turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Reminds me of the winter of 01-02 and 11-12 the cold air was always 10 days away-hope that's not a bad sign for this year.... It's only October lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Ridge peaking Sun (10/6) - Wed (10/9) as heights build to 592DM 850s 16 - 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Ridge peaking Sun (10/6) - Wed (10/9) as heights build to 592DM 850s 16 - 19. Wouldn't be shocked to see mid to upper 80s, gfs is showing that but it seems to run a bit warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Despite all of the warmth, I don't think NYC has had a record high temperature. Daily highs haven't been that impressive despite the consistent warmth and high dews. But we have been setting many a record high low temperature this 'fall'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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