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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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September and October warmth for the 2010's continues. NYC has had no cold Octobers during this decade. There was only 1 slightly cooler than average September.

NYC 2010's October temperature departures

2018....+1.2 so far

2017.....+7.2

2016.....+1.9

2015.....+1.1

2014......+2.7

2013......+3.3

2012......+1.1

2011......+0.2

2010.....+1.2

NYC 2010's September temperature departures

2018.....+2.7

2017.....+2.5

2016.....+3.8

2015.....+6.5

2014.....+1.7

2013.....-0.1

2012....+0.8

2011....+2.0

2010.....+3.1

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It has been well below normal for two weeks.

Similar pattern to Sept 17 Jan 18.

To say this month has been “warm” is glossing over a new situation.

We are having zero sum months or months with minor negative/positive departures that are characterized by two extreme air masses negating each other.

 

A new exterme in a decade of extremes.

 

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21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It has been well below normal for two weeks.

Similar pattern to Sept 17 Jan 18.

To say this month has been “warm” is glossing over a new situation.

We are having zero sum months or months with minor negative/positive departures that are characterized by two extreme air masses negating each other.

 

A new exterme in a decade of extremes.

 

I guess the last few weeks felt well below normal relative to the warmth that came before it. But the cold wasn't all that impressive vs the warmth earlier in the month.

NYC...Oct 1-12.......+9.6

NYC ..Oct 13-27......-4.9

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45 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It has been well below normal for two weeks.

Similar pattern to Sept 17 Jan 18.

To say this month has been “warm” is glossing over a new situation.

We are having zero sum months or months with minor negative/positive departures that are characterized by two extreme air masses negating each other.

 

A new exterme in a decade of extremes.

 

There is also the sense that it's cool due to limited sunshine. It's been cloudy for so much of the daylight hours it's hard to get the sense that it's warm. 

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It has been well below normal for two weeks.

Similar pattern to Sept 17 Jan 18.

To say this month has been “warm” is glossing over a new situation.

We are having zero sum months or months with minor negative/positive departures that are characterized by two extreme air masses negating each other.

 

A new exterme in a decade of extremes.

 

Expect it really hasn't been cold aside from a day or two this month

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

There is also the sense that it's cool due to limited sunshine. It's been cloudy for so much of the daylight hours it's hard to get the sense that it's warm. 

Yeah, the minimum departure being warmer than the maximum has been a common theme this month. The pattern shows up with our recent cooler days and the warmer ones earlier in the month.

NYC........Max......Min....

10-08......+7.....+12

10-09.....+11.....+14

10-10.....+14.....+19

10-11.....+12.....+18

 

10-24.....-7.......-4

10-25....-10......-7

10-26....-11.......-9

10-27.....-9........-3

 

 

 

 

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Interesting combination of competing influences for October. The 2010's are famous for putting together teleconnections in new and unusual ways.

1) Low sea ice near record block north of Alaska

2) Developing El Nino October -EPO

3) Lingering La Nina SE Ridge

IMG_0311.GIF.ca6f71aec6a407a561d81230d7aab531.GIF

 

 

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2nd rare October tornado for Suffolk this morning following the one on the 3rd. 

Wow! Here’s video of the #tornado that cut across Fisher’s Island this morning!  Brian Faulkner @JimCantore @Ginger_Zee @WeatherNation @WX1BOX@ryanhanrahan @ericfisher @TimNBCBoston @Wx_Maxpic.twitter.com/zmU9uFs54K
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/29/2018 TORNADO EVENT...

.FISHERS ISLAND TORNADO...

START LOCATION...FISHERS ISLAND IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK
END LOCATION...FISHERS ISLAND IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK 
DATE...10/29/2018
ESTIMATED TIME...7:35 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65-85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...UNKNOWN YARDS
PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...APPROXIMATELY 41.25/-72.00 
ENDING LAT/LON...APPROXIMATELY 41.28/71.98
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...UNKNOWN

...SUMMARY...
FISHERS ISLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS FISHERS 
ISLAND. IN ADDITION, SMALL BUILDINGS WERE REMOVED OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS. 
THERE ARE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND NUMEROUS BOATS 
WERE TOSSED AROUND NEAR THE WATER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DUAL-POL 
RADAR CONFIRMS A WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE ISLAND SHORTLY 
AFTER 730 AM BECOMING A TORNADO, BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE AS A 
WATERSPOUT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY TORNADO SURVEY REPORT FOR FISHERS ISLAND. 
A MORE DETAILED REPORT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTER THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTS AN ON SITE INVESTIGATION IN COLLABORATION 
WITH SUFFOLK COUNTY OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER LOCAL OFFICIALS.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

 

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2nd rare October tornado for Suffolk this morning following the one on the 3rd. 

Wow! Here’s video of the #tornado that cut across Fisher’s Island this morning!  Brian Faulkner @JimCantore @Ginger_Zee @WeatherNation @WX1BOX@ryanhanrahan @ericfisher @TimNBCBoston @Wx_Maxpic.twitter.com/zmU9uFs54K

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/29/2018 TORNADO EVENT...

.FISHERS ISLAND TORNADO...

START LOCATION...FISHERS ISLAND IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK
END LOCATION...FISHERS ISLAND IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK 
DATE...10/29/2018
ESTIMATED TIME...7:35 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65-85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...UNKNOWN YARDS
PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...APPROXIMATELY 41.25/-72.00 
ENDING LAT/LON...APPROXIMATELY 41.28/71.98
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...UNKNOWN

...SUMMARY...
FISHERS ISLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS FISHERS 
ISLAND. IN ADDITION, SMALL BUILDINGS WERE REMOVED OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS. 
THERE ARE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND NUMEROUS BOATS 
WERE TOSSED AROUND NEAR THE WATER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DUAL-POL 
RADAR CONFIRMS A WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE ISLAND SHORTLY 
AFTER 730 AM BECOMING A TORNADO, BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE AS A 
WATERSPOUT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY TORNADO SURVEY REPORT FOR FISHERS ISLAND. 
A MORE DETAILED REPORT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTER THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTS AN ON SITE INVESTIGATION IN COLLABORATION 
WITH SUFFOLK COUNTY OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER LOCAL OFFICIALS.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

 

I'm surprised they even consider that Suffolk lol

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4 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Bluewave or anyone else what is the average / normal / usual number of days that we see rain during a year in NYC  ?

About 105 days from January 1st through October 29th with measurable rainfall. 2015 and 2010 were the recent lowest at only 88 days. 

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Last day of Oct. averaging 54degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is +0.70[57.8].    Should end at +0.70[57.6].

All 8 days averaging 57degs., or 6/7AN.

Last 19 days of Oct. averaged -4.9 and nearly wiped out the +9.5 of the first 12 days.

The RRWT showed none of this BN period.   Now it is headed for reform school as it indicates way BN on the next 30 days and 90.   A shift of multiple degrees in three days.   We will see if it stabilizes here.

BTW: Rain probability varies over the year from 23% on Oct. 15 to 41% on April 1.   Overall it is  30%.

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