donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 There was lots of frost on vehicles and the grass in southern Westchester County this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, rgwp96 said: 29.9 , hard freeze here as it’s been at or below 32 for hrs That's impressive. Seems like you radiate very well. I'd like to find a highly detailed topographic map of our town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 32 on the button in Trumbull CT. First morning of defrosting windshield with remote start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Close to 2010's average first freeze date at Westhampton. First freeze back on Sunday followed by the 26 today. 2010's average......October 15th 2018.....................October 14th 2010's earliest.......October 6th, 2014.....followed by February 2015 the coldest month of 2010's 2010's latest.........October 30th, 2011...followed by the dud 2011-2012 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Euro ensembles still show a decent signal for a coastal storm at the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro ensembles still show a decent signal for a coastal storm at the end of this month. It's still highly likely that we'll see a storm. Models will hone that in by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 37.0 at the wantagh meso which is a little exposed on the top of a man made hill. First frost on some of the roofs in my neighborhood so it was probably a couple degrees cooler in more sheltered areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 I only managed a 28F last night around 2 am before winds picked back up and the mercury started rebounding - meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Hard to believe I had a 74° dew point just 8 days ago, and frost this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I only managed a 28F last night around 2 am before winds picked back up and the mercury started rebounding - meh. 28° here as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 I saw 30 around 3am. Keeping an eye on the end of the month storm. I need to because I posted in that extreme storm for October thread that it would snow by Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Low 42 this am. Have a few peppers planted, still producing albeit it a little smaller. Wonder how long they will hold on. I used to drive well in westchester regularly, now I work in the City, I feel so lost I dont get to see any frost/freeze lol. I wonder if the leaves are even changing color outside the city. It pretty much green and lush here. I used to see some nice color along the Sprain to Taconic about this time of Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 44 minutes ago, dWave said: Low 42 this am. Have a few peppers planted, still producing albeit it a little smaller. Wonder how long they will hold on. I used to drive well in westchester regularly, now I work in the City, I feel so lost I dont get to see any frost/freeze lol. I wonder if the leaves are even changing color outside the city. It pretty much green and lush here. I used to see some nice color along the Sprain to Taconic about this time of Oct. Quite a first freeze spread between our urban and more rural areas. Earliest to latest average first fall freeze dates during the 2010's: FOK...10-15 SMQ..10-17 ISP....10-30 HPN...10-31 EWR..11-8 FRG...11-11 JFK....11-16 NYC...11-22 LGA....12-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 At 2:30 pm, an area of rain extended from parts of Arkansas across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan into Ontario. That area of rain and showers was associated with a frontal system that will cross the region tomorrow morning. Even as precipitation amounts should be light, the guidance suggests that Central Park will likely receive the 0.01" it needs in order for 2018 to become New York City's 33rd year on record with 50" or more precipitation. To date, 2018 has seen above to much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic region. 2018's total precipitation was as follows for select sites (the start of their recordkeeping is in parentheses): Asheville (1869): 59.54” (5th wettest year) Baltimore (1871): 55.66” (7th wettest year) Harrisburg (1888): 51.32” (8th wettest year) New York City (1869): 49.99” (33rd wettest year) Oakland (1 SE), MD (1893): 59.46” (6th wettest year) Richmond (1887): 52.42” (16th wettest year) Scranton (1901): 49.69” (3rd wettest year) Washington, DC (1871): 51.55” (13th wettest year) Wilmington, NC (1870): 87.46” (wettest year on record) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Woke up at 3am and took a quick look at the thermometer, and it was 35 degrees. But the tomato plants and other vegetable plants in the garden look fine, so I guess we just barely avoided a frost last night. Let the growing season continue. We'll see if we can just barely avoid it again sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Euro shows alot of rain and wind for next weekend. Low goes over NYC. Sub 1000. Sloppy phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro shows alot of rain and wind for next weekend. Low goes over NYC. Sub 1000. Sloppy phase. How far N or W is the freezing line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, gravitylover said: How far N or W is the freezing line? Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Canada 88 or anyone else help me out,,,,,,Im looking at the Euro hour 240 ( and for you others yes I realize that its still lite years away and there is oceans of time ) but isn't the freeze line all the way down near the coast >I mean the center of the low is wayyyyy up in Canada but that looks frozen and blue all the way down to the coast,,,,,no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 or anyone else help me out,,,,,,Im looking at the Euro hour 240 ( and for you others yes I realize that its still lite years away and there is oceans of time ) but isn't the freeze line all the way down near the coast >I mean the center of the low is wayyyyy up in Canada but that looks frozen and blue all the way down to the coast,,,,,no ? The storm at 240 is well into Canada. The 850 line is off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Canada How much for Philly?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just to clear up any misconceptions, 850 temps are around +15C while the storm passes overhead. Cooler air doesn't dive in until well after the cessation of precip and even then it's not even close to wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: The low tracks right over NYC on the 12z Euro. Has temperatures in the 60's with heavy rain and strong SE winds. Actually has wind gusts to around 70 mph near the coast. So a high impact late October system as currently modeled. Thanks,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 41 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The storm at 240 is well into Canada. The 850 line is off the coast. Gotcha thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 The storm will end up being rain. But there may be a follow up spin up storm that can drop snow even to our neck of the woods. There’ll be plenty of cold air with the second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Maybe some mood flakes for some of the forum Sunday morning with the cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Hurricane force winds for New England coast in the Euro If this was a little big earlier to phase. Wow big potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 With 0.01" rain by 3 am today, New York City's 2018 total precipitation reached 50.00" for the 33rd time on record and first time since 2014 when 53.79" precipitation fell. Records go back to 1869. 21 (64%) of those cases occurred after 1970. Number and Frequency of Years with 50.00” or More Precipitation: Historic Period (1869-2018): 33 years; Return time: 4.5 years 1869-1970: 12 years; Return time: 8.5 years 1971-2018: 21 years; Return time: 2.3 years 2000-2018: 10 years; Return time 1.9 years Mean Annual Precipitation: Historic Period: (1869-2017): 45.27” 1869-1970: 42.89” 1971-2017: 50.42” 2000-2017: 50.58” Note: excludes 2018, as 2018 has not ended Implied Probabilities for Annual 2018 Precipitation: Historic Period (1869-2017) Scenario: 55.00” or more: 88% 60.00” or more: 31% 1971-2017 Period: 55.00” or more: 90% 60.00” or more: 47% All of New York City’s years during which 60.00” or more precipitation fell occurred after 1970.The most recent such year was 2011 when 72.81" precipitation fell. October 21-December 31 Precipitation Records: Least precipitation: 2.75", 1998 Most precipitation: 19.53", 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Strong signal on the gefs and eps for a noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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