October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

The RRWT that I was following failed to give any indication of a BN second half of Oct.

It is calling for +5 on the next 30 and +2  on the next 90 overall.   So maybe that means Nov. 16 to Jan. 15 will be near Normal in order to go from the +5 to the +2 in the time alotted.

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the typical El Nino progression. Warmest temperature departures November and December and turning colder and snowier in January through February and sometimes March. This is pretty much what all the seasonal models are showing now as the El Nino continues to develop. Last winter we saw the La Nina progression with colder November through early January blizzard before the pattern flipped record warm. We got very lucky with the strat warming creating the record snowy March into April. Otherwise, winter would have effectively ended on January 10th. While these 2010's winters have followed the general ENSO progressions, the types of extremes have been a new twist for us.

I feel like they'll be plenty of twists this year and I think something closer to 2002 is possible. 

[Cfa]

These back-loaded winters have really begun to get old, the cold/snowy March pattern especially.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 2degs. BN. 

Month to date is +5.6[64.7].   Should be +3.2[60.6] by the 26th.

Storm for the 28th. not looking so good this morning.    EURO lost an offshore item and the GFS is weaker with system.   

44.4 here at 5am

43.8 here at 6am

For now the models lost it but the pattern does support it.

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the temperature fell to 42° in New York City’s Central Park. Some of the guidance had suggested that the temperature could fall into the upper 30s. The next shot at such a low would be Monday morning. The GFS MOS currently forecasts a low temperature of 40°. Outside the City, low temperatures fell into the 30s including (as of 8 am):

Bridgeport: 39°
Danbury: 37°
Morristown: 39°
Poughkeepsie: 37°
White Plains: 39°

Tonight, many of those locations will see even colder temperatures on account of radiational cooling. Places such as Danbury, Poughkeepsie, and Westhampton could see readings fall below 30°.

New York City has seen an increase in October cases where the temperature has not fallen below 40°. This increase has been occurring after 1950, by which time the City had a mature urban footprint. During the period beginning in 2010, October cases with the lowest temperature of 40° or above have become as likely as those with a monthly minimum temperature below 40°.

Return Times for October Cases with a Monthly Minimum Temperature of 40° or Above:
Historic (1869-2017): 4.7 years
1869-1950: 5.9 years
1950-2017: 3.8 years
1980-2017: 3.5 years
2000-2017: 3.6 years
2010-2017: 2.0 years

At the same time, cases with at least one October temperature of 32° or below have diminished in frequency. Since 1950, there have been 11 such cases. The last such occurrence was October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°. Given the latest guidance, New York City will likely extend that stretch to 30 years when October concludes. The previous longest such stretch was 25 years and 7 days (from October 22, 1940 to October 29, 1965).

Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that October will finish with an above normal monthly temperature despite the cooler second half of the month.

 

[dWave]

Got down to 41 this morn. Refreshing but I'm still not adjusted to chilly weather and dry air especially. Feels like I've gone from summer to Thanksgiving in the blink of an eye.

[bluewave]

The EPS still has the storm for the end of the month. Looks like a system cutting through the Great Lakes with a Gulf Of Mexico low coming up the coast. Main question on intensity is how much phasing will occur.

 

[MJO812]

12z gfs has the coastal storm again. Cmc is also close.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS still has the storm for the end of the month. Looks like a system cutting through the Great Lakes with a Gulf Of Mexico low coming up the coast. Main question on intensity is how much phasing will occur.

 

Could be out last shot at a big coastal for a while. I wouldn’t expect any snow at the coast but it could be a blue bomb for areas above 2k in the Catskills and New England. Then afterwards November is notorious for cutters. 

[purduewx80]

26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z gfs has the coastal storm again. Cmc is also close.

ECMWF ensembles have had the right pattern for it for days.  It's actually not all that different from the pattern that produced Sandy, minus the tropical input of course.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Could be out last shot at a big coastal for a while. I wouldn’t expect any snow at the coast but it could be a blue bomb for areas above 2k in the Catskills and New England. Then afterwards November is notorious for cutters. 

Any phasing system could get a heavy rain and strong wind boost from the absorption of tropical energy from the Central American Gyre.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the typical El Nino progression. Warmest temperature departures November and December and turning colder and snowier in January through February and sometimes March. This is pretty much what all the seasonal models are showing now as the El Nino continues to develop. Last winter we saw the La Nina progression with colder November through early January blizzard before the pattern flipped record warm. We got very lucky with the strat warming creating the record snowy March into April. Otherwise, winter would have effectively ended on January 10th. While these 2010's winters have followed the general ENSO progressions, the types of extremes have been a new twist for us.

Thanks Chris, isn't there something about El Ninos that also shows a correlation between how October goes and the following winter?  Even if it flips back to milder in November and December, that the ridge west trough east pattern of October will be the predominant pattern of the majority of the winter?

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any phasing system could get a heavy rain and strong wind boost from the absorption of energy from the Central American Gyre.

You know thats what I was thinking- that this would have been the outcome in October 2012 had Sandy not been there.  We still would have gotten a strong coastal, but not the historic event that occurred.  I see that the cold will also linger into the first week of November like it did after Sandy, when we got a major snow (8") in the first week of November.  I wonder if that will be possible again in the first week of November after this event and before the flip to milder weather.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

12z gfs has the coastal storm again. Cmc is also close.

Euro is similar going out to next Saturday. Very rare for this level of agreement 9+ days out. 

Potential for a very strong storm is there if everything phases in, even some tropical connections are possible.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You know thats what I was thinking- that this would have been the outcome in October 2012 had Sandy not been there.  We still would have gotten a strong coastal, but not the historic event that occurred.  I see that the cold will also linger into the first week of November like it did after Sandy, when we got a major snow (8") in the first week of November.  I wonder if that will be possible again in the first week of November after this event and before the flip to milder weather.

The big storm at the end of last October also found a tropical energy and moisture connection when TS Phillippe got absorbed. 

[NJwx85]

The upcoming forecasted NAO dive and then rebound at the end of October correlates with our storm signal and increases confidence that the pattern supports a major east coast storm during the last weekend of October.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big storm at the end of last October also found a tropical energy and moisture connection when TS Phillippe got absorbed. 

Late October seems to be a historically favorable time for big snows.  There was another one between 2008 and 2011 I think where New Brunswick NJ had measurable snows and we saw a trace, not sure of the year.

Also OT but you mentioned something in the Climate Change thread, it was a link from WaPo, did Omjakon in Siberia reach a low of -88 this past winter?  And they mentioned that in 2013 they reached a low of -98, are those official?  Because that would be the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere!

[Gravity Wave]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Late October seems to be a historically favorable time for big snows.  There was another one between 2008 and 2011 I think where New Brunswick NJ had measurable snows and we saw a trace, not sure of the year.

Also OT but you mentioned something in the Climate Change thread, it was a link from WaPo, did Omjakon in Siberia reach a low of -88 this past winter?  And they mentioned that in 2013 they reached a low of -98, are those official?  Because that would be the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere!

October 2011 had a big snowstorm just N/W of I-95. I remember my Dad in Allentown laughing at me when I told him to expect 6-10 inches. He ended up having to shovel 7-8 inches of concrete the next morning.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

October 2011 had a big snowstorm just N/W of I-95. I remember my Dad in Allentown laughing at me when I told him to expect 6-10 inches. He ended up having to shovel 7-8 inches of concrete the next morning.

Yep and in the mountains just north and west of Allentown a lot more, my sister in Albrightsville had 20" with lots of thundersnow during the day and plenty of tree damage!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep and in the mountains just north and west of Allentown a lot more, my sister in Albrightsville had 20" with lots of thundersnow during the day and plenty of tree damage!

The tree damage in NW CT was incredible. Especially with oaks which drop their leaves late. The same reason oaks suffered during sandy. It looked very similar to the damage in the Montreal area after the 98 ice storm. Whole canapys bent down but the trunks remaining.

if we do happen to have a high wind event there will be allot of tree damage here as the trees are behind from the warm September. Hopefully the cold this week and next will speed things up.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The tree damage in NW CT was incredible. Especially with oaks which drop their leaves late. The same reason oaks suffered during sandy. It looked very similar to the damage in the Montreal area after the 98 ice storm. Whole canapys bent down but the trunks remaining.

if we do happen to have a high wind event there will be allot of tree damage here as the trees are behind from the warm September. Hopefully the cold this week and next will speed things up.

Yes it was horrendous, and in Mass they had 30" of snow! In October!

 

Did you get anything out your way?  in SW Nassau we had 1.5" or so could have gotten more but the precip fizzled out with the temp hovering around 32-33 lol.  The 6" line made it to the Bronx which was amazing and NYC was under a Winter Storm Warning in October!  That's like being under a Winter Storm Warning in May lol.

For us though the event the following year, after Sandy, was bigger, 8.5" of snow in the first week of November- the trees that got weakened by Sandy but didn't go down went down in that one.

 

Funny thing with these early season events the south shore does better than the north shore because we have an offshore wind from the North while the north shore is warmer because the wind comes off the Sound for them.

[the_other_guy]

Sharp cutoff in that Oct 2011 storm around Maspeth, Queens.

 

Everything east of that got little to nothing.

 

We had to shovel in Park Slope.

It all melted the next day

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Sharp cutoff in that Oct 2011 storm around Maspeth, Queens.

 

Everything east of that got little to nothing.

 

We had to shovel in Park Slope.

It all melted the next day

We had about an inch and a half here in SW Nassau, the total was around the same at JFK.  That Noreaster guy from Howard Beach got about the same amount and he was pretty excited lol, which is funny because he always seems so pessimistic about snow.  He's the one who always yells "Climo!"- he even did that right before Sandy hit.

[doncat]

Whittling away at the monthly temp departure, now at +4.5°.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it was horrendous, and in Mass they had 30" of snow! In October!

 

Did you get anything out your way?  in SW Nassau we had 1.5" or so could have gotten more but the precip fizzled out with the temp hovering around 32-33 lol.  The 6" line made it to the Bronx which was amazing and NYC was under a Winter Storm Warning in October!  That's like being under a Winter Storm Warning in May lol.

For us though the event the following year, after Sandy, was bigger, 8.5" of snow in the first week of November- the trees that got weakened by Sandy but didn't go down went down in that one.

 

Funny thing with these early season events the south shore does better than the north shore because we have an offshore wind from the North while the north shore is warmer because the wind comes off the Sound for them.

I was living in long beach at the time and we got a slushy coating on closer surfaces. Same in wantagh where I live now. I drove NW to see the snow and there was def a line in queens where it went from a coating to a legit snow event. The north shore had nothing as you said. That was a truly incredible event followed by an awful winter 

[snywx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep and in the mountains just north and west of Allentown a lot more, my sister in Albrightsville had 20" with lots of thundersnow during the day and plenty of tree damage!

A general 12-18” fell here in Orange County on 10/29/11.. Halloween was pushed into the first week of November cause many were without power

[Rtd208]

Temp down to 47 here. I am expecting my temp to bottom out in the mid to upper 30's tonight.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I was living in long beach at the time and we got a slushy coating on closer surfaces. Same in wantagh where I live now. I drove NW to see the snow and there was def a line in queens where it went from a coating to a legit snow event. The north shore had nothing as you said. That was a truly incredible event followed by an awful winter 

about 4 inches here-just shy of enough to start snapping trees in eanest....just 5-10 miles inland here had 12-18 and catastrophic damage/power outages...best event of the winter but who knew?  Right after we flipped to warm and dry which lasted the whole winter outside of a 10 day period in Jan that brought one 4 inch snowfall....an 01-02 redux....

[Stormlover74]

Down to 40 already

[Juliancolton]

32F. Winter is here.