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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Month to date is +6.2[65.4].   Should be +3.2[60.8] by the 25th.  Note:  We need a 61.2 finish to make the TopTen.

Really dry for next 10 days, then potential storm.   Oct. usually has the fewest wet days anyway at 8 or 9, but they tend to be bigger events.   April has the most at 13 or 14, usually less precipitation for each event however.

50.3 here at 6am.

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19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

3k NAM, 12k NAM and HRRR have the city making it into the 30s.

After one of the latest first temperatures under 50 around the area, a low below 40 would be early early for the 2010's in NYC.

The NAM MOS and GFS MOS both have a low of 39 in NYC on Thursday.

Average first temperature under 40 in NYC during the 2010's:

10-27

Earliest

10-13-12

Latest

11-08-17

 

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Big storm is quite possible with the pattern depicted.

The timing is off on the last few runs. Trough is kicking it East off the Mid-Atlantic coast instead of trapping it and pulling it North. Either way looks like a big rainstorm for someone.

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Earthlight

"The threat for a significant storm along the East Coast from 10/25 - 10/30 can be traced back to the larger scale pattern evolution in the North Pacific Ocean. A jet extension and poleward amplification of a ridge into British Columbia jump starts the pattern change."

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

After one of the latest first temperatures under 50 around the area, a low below 40 would be early early for the 2010's in NYC.

The NAM MOS and GFS MOS both have a low of 39 in NYC on Thursday.

Average first temperature under 40 in NYC during the 2010's:

10-27

Earliest

10-13-12

Latest

11-08-17

 

Didn't we get into the 20s in mid Oct on the south shore of Nassau County with snow showers also in NYC- I think that was last year?

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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

For once, the EPS weeklies and CFS weeklies are in good agreement. El Nino trough in the East lingers into early November. Followed by a return of the ridge after. Pretty standard October into November El Nino response. 

Latest ECMWF weeklies show the cold pattern in the central & eastern U.S. persisting into early November, followed by a mid-month, #ElNiño-stoked warmup. 2nd half of November may not be ideal for East Coast winter weather events. pic.twitter.com/j3PgpkF2Dc

Sounds a lot like what Larry Cosgrove said....cold until November 7, then mild from there through the end of December and then cold again January through March.... is that what your thinking is too?

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Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 2degs. BN. 

Month to date is +5.6[64.7].   Should be +3.2[60.6] by the 26th.

Storm for the 28th. not looking so good this morning.    EURO lost an offshore item and the GFS is weaker with system.   

44.4 here at 5am

43.8 here at 6am

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we get into the 20s in mid Oct on the south shore of Nassau County with snow showers also in NYC- I think that was last year?

That was October 2016. NYC, though, only got down to 38° and ISP to 36°. In October 2017, both locations had their lowest monthly readings as 42° and 40° respectively.

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