snywx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 37° for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 Had a low of 42 here this morning. Current temp 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Why not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Widespread frost looks likely for interior areas for the middle of next week. Current forecast is upper 30s but could trend lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Seasonable fall weather is a very nice change. Guidance looks to continue that with no extreme warmth for the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 52degs. or 3degs. BN. Month to date is +7.1[66.6]. Should be +3.4[61.4] by the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 fall forecast: cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 12Z 3k has a decent looking squall line coming through just before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 For those looking towards the horizon for more highly anomalous weather, the GFS has been periodically advertising the storm that @earthlight mentioned in his twitter post. While the different runs have varied the outcome, the general idea is to take a piece of energy that comes into Southern California in about 8 days and phase it with a trough that drops through the plains a few days later. The end result is a powerful low pressure system which deepens rapidly thanks to a tremendous amount of baroclinic forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Lol Canadians are high on cannabis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 First time I'm seeing a -NAO signal pop up in months. Late October has been a prime hotspot for storminess and I'd be shocked if we don't see something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 6 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said: Lol Canadians are high on cannabis Lock it up. All jokes aside theres definitely a signal for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 8 hours ago, forkyfork said: fall forecast: cloudy This is actually a record amount of cloudiness for the first half of fall. More like what is typical for Buffalo in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Funny that song was playing on the radio today, 60s tribute. Never heard it before today. Wow. Look him up, he did some fun tunes. 10 hours ago, forkyfork said: fall forecast: cloudy Sometimes your brilliance is truly inspiring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Serious howling wind out there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is +6.8[66.2]. Should be +3.3[61.3] by the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Strongest cold front of the fall so far for Wednesday. Many spots will see their fist 30's of the season Thursday and Friday. This could be only the 3rd time in the 2010's that NYC went below 40 before October 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Through October 15, the temperature has averaged 66.2° in New York City’s Central Park. That makes 2018 the 11th warmest October 1-15 period on record. Records go back to 1869. The second half of October looks to be notably cooler than the first half. In fact, it could be among the coolest periods to close October from among the cases where the first 15 days had averaged 65° or above, with a mean temperature of 54° or below for the 10/16-31 period. Select data for 15 prior cases with an October 1-15 mean temperature of 65° or above: October 16-31: Mean temperature: 55.7° Lowest: 49.8°, 1922 Highest: 60.7°, 2007 October Monthly Average Temperature: Mean temperature: 61.1° Lowest: 58.1°: 1922 Highest: 64.1°, 2017 Sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance: Probability of a warmer than normal October: 66% Estimated range for the October 16-31 period: 49.0°-54.0° Estimated range for the October 2018 mean temperature: 56.8° - 59.7° The relatively cool conclusion to October after a very warm start has often coincided with a snowy winter. From among the 15 cases cited above, 6 had a mean temperature below 55° during the October 16-31 period. Four of those cases saw 30” or more snow during the following winter. Even as the GFS has persistently signaled the potential for a significant storm to close October, the forecast state of the teleconnections suggests that such a storm could take a course in which the heaviest precipitation misses the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. Areas on Long Island into New England could have a better chance of seeing 1” or more precipitation. Much can still change, as the period in question is approximately 9-12 days away. Finally, the latest EPS weekly guidance is colder than the CFSv2 for the first week in November. The former maintains a fairly deep trough in the means in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Is there a Mt Washington webcam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, sferic said: Is there a Mt Washington webcam? https://www.mountwashington.org/premium-content/webcam-videos/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I honestly haven't been very impressed with the CFS weeklies, especially beyond week 2. Consistently underestimated the heat this summer, and then underestimated/didn't even show this cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 The Catskills received snow last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Near overcast skies this last hour what happened to the afternoon sunny forecast? Satellite loop reveals a massive cloud deck for a large swath of the country. Would be nice to see the sun someday to dry out the mold colonies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: The Catskills received snow last week. What day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 More banter, but also relevant given the patterns we have seen twice in the last 13 months: Anyone else worried about the extreme flip pattern from Sept 2017 and January 2018 returning after this cool snap? If that pattern holds, mid November, thru much of December would be AN, correct? I believe that we are expecting an El Nino December as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: More banter, but also relevant given the patterns we have seen twice in the last 13 months: Anyone else worried about the extreme flip pattern from Sept 2017 and January 2018 returning after this cool snap? If that pattern holds, mid November, thru much of December would be AN, correct? I believe that we are expecting an El Nino December as well... El Niño winters are traditionally back loaded, ie colder and stormier late winter than early. Hopefully blocking can show up but not too stout like often in 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Current temp down to 46 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Current temp is 43 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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