MJO812 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast. Agree Some areas will pick up a quick 1-3 inches from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Agree Some areas will pick up a quick 1-3 inches from that. Both the HWRF and HMON have been slowly sliding Southeast over the last few runs. I doubt we end up seeing much from the core itself but that doesn't mean it won't be a very wet day around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 The 2.30" PWAT surge coming up the coast from the Delmarva with the heavy convection is near record levels for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 12z Nam Looks like NJ and LI will get alot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I know it’s early and it’ll probably change a 100 times but look what GFS showed this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 It was only 7 years ago that areas just n&W of I-95 in the MA had a nice snowstorm in the last week of October. It's definitely possible with the unseasonably cold air being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 The 12z NAM has been spot on so far with the positioning of Michael. The forecasted 15z position is almost identical to the current position of the center. I would put the odds extremely low that anyone outside of coastal NJ or Long Island receives much rain from Michael itself. With that being said, we're going to remain in the moist Southwest flow for the next several hours which will give us intermittent periods of convection. The cold front is still back over Central Ohio currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Heavy rain in Parsippany. Wife called to say 287 North is flooded in low laying spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 With 0.14" rain in the past hour, New York City's 2018 total precipitation has reached 48.70". That surpasses the 48.69" that fell in 1901 and 1998 to make 2018 New York City's 39th wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: With 0.14" rain in the past hour, New York City's 2018 total precipitation has reached 48.70". That surpasses the 48.69" that fell in 1901 and 1998 to make 2018 New York City's 39th wettest year on record. Any chance for the top 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: With 0.14" rain in the past hour, New York City's 2018 total precipitation has reached 48.70". That surpasses the 48.69" that fell in 1901 and 1998 to make 2018 New York City's 39th wettest year on record. Don, 1901 and 1998 had same amounts to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 That first batch definitly had that tropical feel to it. Those super high PWATS are going to dump on somone later. The question is where. Right now I would favor inland areas closer to the front. Michael may scrape the far East end but that’s about it. I’m more looking forward to a nice windy fall day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast. We already had one bout of very heavy rain here with very high winds after it was sunny earlier. Expecting around 3" of rain here with around 5" on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: It was only 7 years ago that areas just n&W of I-95 in the MA had a nice snowstorm in the last week of October. It's definitely possible with the unseasonably cold air being forecast. We also had a big snow the next year in the first week of November on Long Island, 8" and it was Sandy related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: Any chance for the top 10? The 10th highest figure is 58.42" from 2003. If NYC receives just the historically-average precipitation for the remainder of 2018 (and no more today, which is unlikely for today), NYC would wind up with 58.27". I believe NYC will finish in the top 10 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Very heavy rain here in upper Bergen County with widespread street flooding already occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I think we had our latest 70 min here beat 2015 by a day and got it on Oct 10, with the rain today we are already in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z NAM has been spot on so far with the positioning of Michael. The forecasted 15z position is almost identical to the current position of the center. I would put the odds extremely low that anyone outside of coastal NJ or Long Island receives much rain from Michael itself. With that being said, we're going to remain in the moist Southwest flow for the next several hours which will give us intermittent periods of convection. The cold front is still back over Central Ohio currently. .68 fell by me in a short period in Morris county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 downpour here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 35 minutes ago, sferic said: Don, 1901 and 1998 had same amounts to date? No. Those are year-end figures. With 48.74", 2018 ranks as the 7th wettest January 1- October 12 on record for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Total fail on the dry slot up here, .75” and pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1.30" so far today and still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Total fail on the dry slot up here, .75” and pouring Major fail today on the models for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Even the light echos on radar downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Major fail today on the models for our area. Rainfall rate is currently 4.68 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 The 12z HWRF did not cave to the rest of the guidance. Still brings heavy rainfall to coastal locations tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Last four runs of the HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 HMON also shifted NW from 06z, now more in line with the HWRF Last four runs for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 75/74 here currently...0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, doncat said: 75/74 here currently...0.20" about the same here-a quick downpour earlier. Will be interesting to see if the coast ends up b/w the big frontal rains NW and a whiff on the Michael remnants-it will be close IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.