CIK62 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 65degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is +7.9[68.8]. Should be +7.4[66.8] by the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Warmest average minimum temperature on record for the 1st week of October at Islip. The minimum temperature departure is double the maximum. 2018 also set the record for the latest first low temperature below 50. The previous latest was 10-2-15. We are currently a week later than that with more warmth to continue. Islip 10/1-10/7 Average minimum temperature.....61.7......normal.....49.7.....departure.....+12 .............maximum........................73.9......................67.2..........................+6 .............mean.............................................................................................+9.4 Latest first low below 50 at ISP #1...10-8-18....so far #2...10-2-15 #3....9-30-03 #4....9-29-02.....9-29-70 #5...9-27-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Looks like Michael might dump alot of rain on the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Models already backing off the extent of the cool down and warm things up pretty quickly afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 52 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like Michael might dump alot of rain on the area . Euro is fairly far south with the rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Lets hear it for another rainy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Euro is fairly far south with the rains... Meh all the models will change in the upcoming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Models already backing off the extent of the cool down and warm things up pretty quickly afterwards. To me it still looks like 5 days (friday through tuesday) of nice cool crisp refreshing air. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with 40s at night. But I do agree on a big warmup after that. I think we go back to a very warm pattern after the cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Meh all the models will change in the upcoming days it will come down to the timing of the cold front-any slower and it will come further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it will come down to the timing of the cold front-any slower and it will come further north... Yep Hope we get a nice noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 ^^Please not next weekend. I'm never one to back down from a great storm but give us a nice weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, gravitylover said: ^^Please not next weekend. I'm never one to back down from a great storm but give us a nice weekend. It'll be long gone by next weekend. Our rains from Michael would be thursday into thursday night. Friday will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Looks like Matthew misses to the Southeast as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Looks like Matthew misses to the Southeast as of now Matthew? What year is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 three more days of 70+ dews coming up. in october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Why does anyone want MORE rain up here? I'll take frost covered pumpkins in the morning with sunshine all day giving way to a DRY 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like Matthew misses to the Southeast as of now Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM. GGEM is one of the worst performing models especially on tropical systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM. At this point there is no such thing as a good batch of heavy rain. It's so soggy tree branches are just rotting and falling and my yard is soaked to the point that if I step a few feet off the walkways I sink to the top of my shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I don't see the long range heat that people are talking about. GFS, which has a warm bias, has some above average temps (with low dews) after 300 hours. Hard to take it seriously >10 days out with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 This dense heavy mist is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: This dense heavy mist is depressing. you can say that again. How people live in Seattle is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, ny10019 said: you can say that again. How people live in Seattle is beyond me. This has been a record amount of cloudiness for the early fall in our area. This is typical for Seattle during the winter or Upstate NY in December. I can remember my friends going away to SUNY colleges and all complaining how cloudy it got around December. At least we didn't match the December 2013 cloudfest in BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just a damp drizzly 64 degree day... 0.03". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has been a record amount of cloudiness for the early fall for our area. This is typical for Seattle during the winter or Upstate NY in December. I can remember my friends going away to SUNY colleges and all complaining how cloudy it got around December. Sunny, dry and relatively cool makes it worth the winter wait. Is the Japanese current the significant driving force.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 65degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +8.2[68.8]. Should be +8.1[66.9] by the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 And again... Visibility is just a couple hundred feet with dense fog and mist. Another very warm overnight minimum too, it looks like it stayed above 60*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Starting the day with more sun for a change. So it looks like we should make another run on 80 degrees. The WAR is close to record levels near 596 DM for the month of October. What an amazing run this year since the February 588 DM ridge and 80 degree reading. We got really lucky with that strat warming briefly interrupting the record WAR pattern for March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 This is the thickest fog I've seen out this way in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I can’t believe it’s actually sunny right now. 64/64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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