October 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

[Roger Smith]

Well, the provisional September scoring shows only one significant change in the contest, RJay (and also Tom) made a move through the chase pack to close in on the leaders. Ahead of them there was very little movement with scoring fairly equal among the leaders. Your host is clinging to a rather narrow lead in the eastern-central (original six) and the all nine scoring, while Scotty Lightning has the lead in the west. 

I can see this being a very close finish with not a huge spread in the scores from top to bottom (of the regular participants), at this point everyone in that group is ahead of Normal.

So for October, the contest as usual will ask you to predict temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... late penalties will be the usual starting at 06z on Monday October 1st, hoping I won't have to apply any. 

(the Regional Rumble is becoming a bit of a runaway train situation for NYC, three other regions are trying to keep up but rather difficult when NYC has such a heavy-hitting roster.)

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +1.2

 ATL: +2.7

IAH: +0.6

DEN +0.5

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +0.8

 NYC forum 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0     0.5        0.0     1.0      1.0         0.5       0.5     0.0 

[Stebo]

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +2.7

BOS: +2.9

ORD: +1.5

 ATL: +2.0

IAH: +1.0

DEN -0.5

PHX: -1.0

SEA: -1.8

[Tom]

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +3.1

ORD: +2.0

 ATL: +2.0

IAH: +0.5

DEN +0.2

PHX: +0.2

SEA: -0.9

 

Philly

[wxallannj]

DCA: +3.6

NYC: +3.3

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +1.5

 ATL: +3.2

IAH: +1.3

DEN   +0.6

PHX: -0.4

SEA: -0.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.5     3.3      2.0         2.3      3.6     0.8        1.2      0.3     0.4

NYC Metro Subforum

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +3.2

BOS: +3.5

 ORD: +1.5

 ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.0

DEN -1.0

PHX: -1.0

 SEA: -2.0

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.5      3.8     3.5        2.9     3.1     2.2         -1.5    -1.1     0.3 

•  

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.5

NYC:  +0.3

BOS:  -0.5

ORD:  -1.7

ATL:  +1.8

IAH:  +1.5

DEN:  +0.6

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  -1.4

[Roger Smith]

+4.0 __ +3.5 __ +3.0 ___ +3.0 __ +4.5 __ +2.5 ____ +3.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.5

[bkviking]

Late again 

 

DCA: +2.8

NYC: +3.0

BOS: +3.1

 ORD: +0.8

 ATL: +1.6

IAH: +1.0

DEN +0.3

PHX: -0.7

  SEA: -1.5

 

NYC subforum 

[Rjay]

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.0

BOS: +3.0

ORD: +2.0

 ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.0

DEN  +1.0

PHX: 0.0

SEA: -1.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2018

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith ________________ +4.0 _+3.5 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.5 _+2.5 ____ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

wxallannj ___________________+3.6 _+3.3 _+2.5 ___ +1.5 _+3.2 _+1.3 ____ +0.6 _--0.4 _--0.5

RodneyS ___________________ +3.5 _+3.8 _+3.5 ___ +2.9 _+3.1 _+2.2 ____ --1.5 _--1.1 _+0.3

DonSutherland.1 _____________+3.5 _+3.3 _+2.0 ___ +2.3 _+3.6 _+0.8 ____ +1.2 _+0.3 _+0.4  

RJay _________ (-6%) _______ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____ +1.0 __0.0 _--1.0

Tom _______________________+3.0 _+2.9 _+3.1 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 ____ +0.2 _+0.2 _--0.9

BKViking ______ (-2%) _______ +2.8 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +0.8 _+1.6 _+1.0 ____ +0.3 _--0.7 _--1.5

 

___ Consensus ______________ +2.8 _+3.0 _+2.9 ___ +1.5 _+2.1 _+1.0 ____ +0.5 __0.0 _--0.5

 

dmillz25 ____________________+2.5 _+3.2 _+3.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ____ --1.0 _--1.0 _--2.0

Stebo ______________________ +2.5 _+2.7 _+2.9 ___ +1.5 _+2.0 _+1.0 ____ --0.5 _--1.0 _--1.8

hudsonvalley21 _______________+2.2 _+2.9 _+1.8 ___ +1.2 _+2.7 _+0.6 ____ +0.5 _+0.6 _+0.8

jaxjagman ___ (-10%) _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.0 ___ +1.7 _+2.1 _+0.7 ____ --1.1 _--0.6 _--0.2

Scotty Lightning ______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0

wxdude64 __________________ +0.5 _+0.3 _--0.5 ___ --1.7 _+1.8 _+1.5 ____ +0.6 _+1.1 _--1.4

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

___________________________________________________________________________

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Consensus (median) is 7th ranked forecast.  

Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC and ATL, IAH. 

[jaxjagman]

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +2.2

BOS: +2.0

ORD: +1.7

 ATL: +2.1

IAH: +0.7

DEN -1.1

PHX: -0.6

SEA: -0.2

TV

[Roger Smith]

The anomaly trackers and predictions ... updated regularly (next after 24d, then after 28th, end of month) ...

color coded actual and forecast entries can be directly compared for accuracy. 

 

_________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Anomalies

8th _____ (7d) ___________ +11.1_ +7.9_ +4.2 __ +7.1_+12.5_ +6.8 ___ +0.6_ --6.1_ --2.6

15th ____ (14d) ____________+9.4_ +7.1_ +4.9 __ +4.2_ +9.5_ +5.9 ___ --7.2_ --6.8_ --0.6

22nd ____ (21d) ___________ +6.2_ +3.4_ +2.8 __ +0.3_ +7.1_ +2.0 ___ --5.1_ --5.6_ +0.4

25th ____ (24d) ___________ +4.8_ +2.4_ +1.7 __ --0.1_ +5.9_ +0.6 ___ --3.6_ --4.6_ +0.3

28th ____ (28d) ___________ +3.4_ +1.0_ +0.7 __ --0.3_ +4.2_ +0.6 ___ --3.6_ --4.6_ +0.3

7-day NWS forecast values

8th _____ (p14d) __________ +8.0_ +6.5_ +5.0 __ +5.0_ +9.0_ +5.0 ___ --6.5_ --7.0_ --1.8

15th ____ (p21d) __________ +4.6_ +3.3_ +1.5 __ +0.2_ +6.0_ +2.0 ___ --5.5_ --6.0_ +1.6

22nd____ (p28d) __________ +2.5_ +0.5_ +0.1 __--1.2_ +3.5 _ +0.3 ___ --1.9_ --3.5_ +0.9

adding GFS model output to 24th

8th _____ (p24d) __________ +4.0_ +3.0_ +2.5 __ +3.0_ +5.0_ +1.0 ___ --2.5_ --3.0_ --0.5

adding GFS model output when required (after 7d NWS) to give end of month provisional

15th ____ (p31d) __________ +2.0_ +1.0__ 0.0 __ --2.0_ +2.0_ --1.0 ___ --3.0_ --3.5_ +1.0

22nd ____ (p31d) __________ +2.0__ 0.0_ --0.5 __ --1.5_ +3.0__ 0.0 ___ --3.0_ --3.5_ +1.0

25th ____ (p31d) __________ +3.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 __ --1.0_ +3.5_ +0.5 ___ --2.0_ --2.5_ +0.5

29th ____ (p31d) __________ +3.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ 0.0_ +4.0_ +1.0 ___ --2.0_ --3.0_ +0.5

__ FINAL ANOMALIES __

 _______ ( 31d ) __________ +3.1_+0.8_+0.4 __ +0.2_+4.1_+0.8 ___ --1.7_--2.9_+1.0

 

(8th) _ Anomalies will peak for ORD and ATL around 10th then fall off sharply there, west has started quite cold but looks to warm somewhat in the third week, so all of these rather large anomalies currently and to the middle of the month will possibly look much less impressive towards end of month, question being can any of them be reversed? The seasonal max contest is probably done now, although ATL had a few days recently that almost matched theirs. Results of seasonal max contest can be found in the September thread. 

(15th) _ The second week NWS predictions were quite good and despite a large change in the regime the average error was only 0.7 deg. This coming week will remain quite chilly in most of the locations with SEA enjoying a warm spell. The GFS output for the period 22nd to 31st looked relatively cold in general and the values reached by the 21st will continue to fall steadily, the provisionals at end of month are somewhat conservative in that regard (it could be colder than shown in other words). SEA should remain a bit on the warmer side of average for that last portion of the month and hold on to their small positive anomaly built up this week. If these provisionals hold close to reality, the contest will be wide open with the people making the biggest upward moves currently in the middle to lower half of the table. Will predict that it will be very close from top to bottom of the tables by end of this month. 

(22nd) _ The third week NWS predictions were very good at measuring the rapid changes, with an average error of only 0.67 deg (SEA may have come in a bit lower due to persistent fog near the end of the week, other nearby stations probably had smaller errors). The projections look about the same as earlier but various values of end of month provisionals have been tweaked slightly. Scores will be changed later today. When finished, the annual scoring summary will appear too. It has become a very tight race to the finish especially for the "all nine" portion. 

(25th) _ This update can be compared directly to the 16-day forecasts made from NWS then GFS (8-16d) back on the 8th. These fared quite well mostly, except for ORD which has cooled off a lot more than predicted. The average error was 1.23 F deg, without ORD it was 0.89. The provisionals for end of month have (except for SEA) have been raised by half to one degree, the main reason being a combination of slight underperformance of cold to date combining with somewhat warmer temperatures than previously expected due to the coastal storm (closer to normal although still running a bit cool). SEA will be dropped by half a degree. Scoring tables updated. Next update after 28 days on 29th. 

(29th) _ The weekly forecasts were fairly close at 0.81 average error. Central stations are all running a bit warmer than predicted and there are warmer days at the end of the month in east and central so have adjusted the central provisionals and maintained the eastern. DEN on track, today is warm but next two days not so much, should finish near the -2.0 earlier shown. PHX may be cooler by half a degree and SEA could drop as much as needed for the 0.5 although perhaps 0.7 most likely now (won't change tables for that small an adjustment to all but two scores in same direction).  ... these changes are now in the scoring tables. 

(Nov 1) _ Final anomalies are now all posted at the end of the table above. Scoring will be finalized by about 18z. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for October 2018

Scores are based on the final anomalies in the previous post. Color codes from warmest and coldest forecasts are preserved. If either becomes high score, it is changed to bold type. Otherwise the high scores are in black bold type. Raw scores before late penalties are in orange, the contest scores are in the second line for those forecasters. 

 

FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH__central, c/e total__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

Scotty Lightning ____________ 58 _ 96_ 98___ 252 ___ 96 _ 38 _ 96 ___ 230 __482 ____56 _ 32 _ 80 ___ 168 ____650

hudsonvalley21 _____________82 _ 58 _ 72 ___ 212 ___ 80 _ 72 _ 96 ___ 248__ 460 ____ 56 _ 30 _ 96 ___182 ____ 642

DonSutherland.1 ____________92 _ 50 _ 68 ___ 210 ___ 58 _ 90 _100 ___248__ 458 ____ 42 _ 36 _ 88 ___166 ____ 624 

wxallannj __________________90 _ 50 _ 58 ___ 198 ___ 74 _ 82 _ 90 ___ 246 __ 444 ____ 54 _ 50 _ 70 ___ 174 ____ 618

RodneyS __________________ 92 _ 40 _ 38 ___ 170 ___ 46 _ 80 _ 72 ___ 198 __ 368 ____ 96 _64 _ 86___ 246 ____ 614

Stebo _____________________88 _ 62 _ 50 ___ 200 ___ 74 _ 58 _ 96 ___ 228 __ 428 ____ 76 _ 62 _ 44 ___ 182 ____ 610

___ Normal ________________38 _ 84 _ 92 ___ 214 ___ 96 _ 18 _ 84___  198 __ 412 ____ 66 _ 42 _ 80 ___ 188 ___ 600

jaxjagman ________________  80 _ 72 _ 68 ___ 220 ___ 70 _ 60 _ 98 ___ 228 __ 448 ____ 88 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 218 _ 666

____________ (-10%) _______72 _ 65 _ 61 ___ 198 ___ 63 _ 54 _ 88 ___ 205 __ 403 ____ 79 _ 49 _ 68 ___ 196 ____ 599 

 

__ Consensus ______________ 94 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 200 ___ 74 _ 60 _ 96 ___ 230 __ 430 ____ 56 _ 42 _ 70 ___ 168 ____ 598

 

BKViking __________________ 94 _ 56 _ 46 ___ 196 ___ 88 _ 50 _ 96 ___ 234 __ 430 ____ 60 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 166 _ 596

_____________ (-2%) _______92 _ 55 _ 45 ___ 192 ___ 86 _ 49 _ 94 ___ 229 __ 421 ____ 59 _ 55 _ 49 ___ 163 ____ 584

dmillz25 ___________________88 _ 52 _ 38 ___ 178 ___ 74 _ 48 _ 96 ___ 218 __ 396 ____ 86 _ 62 _ 40 ___ 188 ____ 584

Tom _____________________ 98 _ 58 _ 46 ___ 202 ___ 64 _ 58 _ 94 ___ 216 __ 418 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 62 ___ 162 ____ 580

wxdude64 _________________48 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 220 ___ 62 _ 54 _ 86 ___ 202__ 422 ____ 54 _ 20 _ 52 ___ 126 ____ 548

RJay _____________________ 98 _ 56 _ 48 ___ 202 ___ 64 _ 68 _ 76 ___ 208 __ 410 ____ 46 _ 42 _ 60 ___ 148 _ 558

_____________ (-6%) _______92 _ 53 _ 45 ___ 190 ___ 60 _ 64 _ 71 ___ 195 __ 385 ____ 43 _ 39 _ 56 ___ 138 ____ 523

Roger Smith _______________ 82 _ 46 _ 48 ___ 176 ___ 44 _ 92 _ 66 ___ 202 __ 378 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 90 ___ 098 ____ 476 

 

Regional Rumble -- final scoring for October 2018

 

REGION ______________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL ___ (annual) 

 

Mid Atlantic ____________ 220 _____ 202 _____ 246 ______ 668 _____ 6174 (2)

Philadelphia ____________ 252 _____ 230 _____ 168 ______ 650 _____ 5882 (3)

New York City __________ 212 _____ 248 _____ 188 ______ 648 _____ 6290 (1)

TN Valley ______________ 198 _____ 205 _____ 196 ______ 599 _____ 5112 (5)

Great Lakes / Ohio Valley __200 _____ 228 _____ 182 ______ 610 _____ 4645 (6)

___ Normal ____________ 214 ______198 _____ 188 ______ 600 _____ 4656 (6)

___ Consensus __________ 200 _____ 230 _____ 168 ______ 598 _____ 5261 (5)

Central + Western _______ 176 _____ 202 _____ 098 ______ 476 _____ 5714 (4)

 

 

[Roger Smith]

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Oct 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

  Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five  three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug to Oct).

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^

... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now)

... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the relevant regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn. 

 

 FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________692 _688 _670 ___ 2050 ____ 546 _634 _522 ____1702 ___ 3752 __2*3*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY

(T) wxallannj _______ 610 _606 _650 ____1866 ____ 524 _564 _651 ____1739 ___ 3605 ___ 001 001 .0.1 

(T) DonSutherland.1 _ 624 _610 _600 ____1834 ____ 499 _657 _615 ____1771 ___ 3605 ___ 000 221 .0.2 

 

___Consensus ______ 597 _595 _608 ____1800 ____ 519 _573 _641 ____1733 ___ 3533 ___ 000 100 .0.0

 

hudsonvalley21 _____ 565 _590 _586 ____1741 ____ 483 _569 _723 ___ 1775___ 3516 ___ 100 001 .0.0

BKViking ___________586 _625 _616 ____1827 ____ 488 _520 _644 ____1652 ___ 3479 ___ 001 000 .0.1

jaxjagman _________ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1

Tom ______________ 589 _587 _607 ____1783 ____ 489 _594 _581 ____1664 ___ 3447 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN

wxdude64 _________ 619 _612 _591 ____1822 ____ 501 _526 _593 ____1620 ___ 3442 ___34^0 002 .2.1

RJay ______________582 _573 _602 ____1757 ____ 449 _594 _626 ____1669 ___ 3426 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG

Scotty Lightning (SD) _567 _623 _602 ___ 1792 ____ 513 _514 _605 ____1632 ___ 3424 ___2^22 203 .3^.1 _ JAN^ OCT

Stebo _____________ 535 _556 _554 ____1645 ____ 523 _564 _646 ____1733 ___ 3378 ___ 010 112 .0.1

RodneyS ___________572 _582 _558 ____1712 ____ 519 _535 _600 ____1654 ___ 3366 ___ 210 201 .0.4 _ MAR, JUL, SEP

dmillz25 ___________ 535 _521 _513 ____1569 ____ 475 _542 _648 ____1665 ___ 3234 ___ 000 011 .0.0

___Normal _________488 _563 _539 ____1590 ____ 482 _471 _493 ____1446 ___ 3036 ___ 001 211 .0.0 __ JAN^

so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

mappy (5/10) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx_(5/10) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

Mercurial (2/10) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/10)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/10) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/10) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October

all shown (2/10) missed March to October, Orangeburgwx (5/10) missed January, July to October

 ... mappy (5/10) missed June to October, and H2OTown_wx (3/10) missed April to October.

  

 Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

 ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

 for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

 FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 529 _ 676 _ 668 ____ 1873 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 5297 (= 4)  __ OCT

RodneyS_______________ 610 _ 674 _ 561 ____ 1845 __________ 2 4#1 __May, Oct__ 5211 (= 7)  MAR,APR,JUL

BKViking _______________463 _ 671 _ 650 ____ 1784 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 5263 (= 6) __ JUN

hudsonvalley21 _________ 513 _ 601 _ 659 _____1773 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 5289 (= 5)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 502 _ 638 _ 607 _____1747 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _____ 5352 (= 2) _ JAN^

__ Consensus __________ 486 _ 648 _ 594 _____1728 __________ 0 1 0 ____________5261 (= 7)

wxallannj ______________ 514 _ 676 _ 523 _____1713 __________1 1 0 __ Mar ______5318 (= 3)

RJay __________________500 _ 577 _ 618 _____1695 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5121 (= 9) __ SEP

Tom __________________ 532 _ 602 _ 550 _____1684 __________ 1 0 0 ____________5131 (= 8) 

dmillz25 _______________ 461 _ 640 _ 573 _____1674 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun ______ 4908 (=12)

Roger Smith ____________417 _ 568 _ 638 _____1623 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan ______ 5375 (= 1) __ MAY

__Normal ______________488 _ 554 _ 578 _____1620 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 4656 (=13) __ FEB

jaxjagman _____________ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=10)

wxdude64 _____________ 490 _ 544 _ 485 _____1519 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 4961 (=11) __ OCT

Stebo _________________ 350 _ 563 _ 354 _____1267 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 4645 (=13)

so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

Orangeburgwx (5/10)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15)

mappy (5/10) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/10) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17)

Mercurial __ (2/10) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/10) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/10) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

  

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - October _) 

 

REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader

 

New York City _____ 2153 ____ 2026 ____ 2111 _____ 6290 ______0

Mid-Atlantic _______ 2162 ____ 2045 ____ 1967 _____ 6174 ____116

Philadelphia _______ 2141 ____ 1814 ____ 1927 _____ 5882 ____408

Central + Western __2204 ____ 1841 ____ 1669 _____ 5714 ____ 576

__ Consensus _____ 1800 ____ 1733 ____ 1728 _____ 5261 ____1029

Tenn Valley _______ 1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 1178

__ Normal ________ 1590 _____1446 ____ 1620 _____ 4656 ___ 1634

Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1645 ____ 1733 _____1267 _____ 4645 ___ 1645

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast early report (this will shift to a separate post at end of the month)

DCA does not qualify, outcome (+3.1) closer to consensus than extremes.

NYC (finished +0.8) is a loss for wxdude64 (+0.3) as well as Normal and a win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0).

BOS (finished +0.4) is another loss for wxdude64 (-0.5) and Normal, and a win for Scotty Lightning (+0.5).

ORD (finished +0.2) is a win for Scotty Lightning and Normal at 0.0, loss for wxdude64 (--1.7).

ATL (finished +4.1) would be a win for Roger Smith (+4.5). 

IAH (finished +0.8) no longer qualifies as three forecasts colder.

DEN (finished -1.7) is a win for RodneyS (-1.5).

PHX (finished -2.9) is a win for RodneyS (-1.1). 

SEA (finished +1.0) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+0.8) and a loss for Roger Smith (+1.5).   

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updated annual standings

 

Roger Smith __________14###-1 (can fall to 11-1 see below)

RJay ________________10-2

RodneyS _____________10-3

__ Normal ____________ 7-7

Scotty Lightning (SD)____6-1

wxdude64 ____________ 6-4

hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below)

DonSutherland1 ________4-1

wxallannj _____________3-0

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

Tom _________________ 0-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

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# wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.