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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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9 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Of course I get to move in to the new house in rain this weekend :thumbsdown:.  Going to try to get most furniture in today after we close at lunch so all it is Saturday and Sunday is mainly boxes

I have done that. It sucks. Hopefully, you hit a dry window. Congrats on the new house !

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Delayed spring seems to be the new normal.  This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc.  Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April.  And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so.  Incredible.

Really hoping that delayed spring doesnt screw up the flowers again this year. It was a terrible photography season last spring with so much rain and so few blooms. Don't want to see that again for a long time.

 

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19 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z GFS says heavy precip switches to snow Tuesday night around WNC. It’s a long shot, but certainly still within the realm of possibilities.

 

While I would like the snow, accumulating snow followed by heavy rains the next few days after would just add fuel to the already potent flood danger.

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12z Euro moves towards the 12z GFS. Wedge is stronger and surface temps are 5 degrees lower this run at @KAVL when heavy precip moves in. Euro also brings in precip later compared to the 0z run and that allows the wedge to build. This one is far from over. Will be interesting to see the EPS. Focus on the evolution of the overall pattern right now, not snowfall maps.

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21 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Delayed spring seems to be the new normal.  This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc.  Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April.  And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so.  Incredible.

Yeah the wet pattern looks to stay around.  Probably a miserable start to spring. 

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2 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

I know anything other than frozen precip gets crickets on this group,  but check out these 15 day precip totals for Blairsville, GA from the 06Z GEFS. Could be epic flooding.....

 

That don't look good :(  Seems like flooding is becoming so frequent we are getting numb to it; I think the City of Asheville is considering giving up on the soccer fields at Azalea Park because they are getting flooded so often.  The big wet thread in summer of 2013 was pretty epic.

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21 minutes ago, Hvward said:

This one is going to be a difficult one to forecast. Need the NAM 3km to get in range. Look like some sleet or ZR could be possible tomorrow night above 3500’ around Boone tomorrow night as well.

 

Is it possible the High can be stronger for the Tues/Wed system... the Euro and GFS have shown hints of it and the CMC today shows an ICE STORM in VA

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12z Euro is all rain outside the Mountains. 

 

Check out the soundings around KAVL on the 12z Euro. Small details but they will make a huge difference in WNC. A meso high develops in NNC and that allows a frozen column to be in place around 8pm Tuesday evening. To compare to the 0z Euro at 8pm Tuesday which had 4c at 850mb. The 12z is shown as 0c on weatherbell at KAVL at 8pm. That’s nearly a 7 degree F difference. With this much volatility, it’s hard to speak in any certainties, but yes the high pressure could come in higher than models are showing, and we could be seeing models realize that. Lots of options still on the table with accumulating snowfall being one of them for WNC Tuesday into Wednesday.

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14 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 

Check out the soundings around KAVL on the 12z Euro. Small details but they will make a huge difference in WNC. A meso high develops in NNC and that allows a frozen column to be in place around 8pm Tuesday evening. To compare to the 0z Euro at 8pm Tuesday which had 4c at 850mb. The 12z is shown as 0c on weatherbell at KAVL at 8pm. That’s nearly a 7 degree F difference. With this much volatility, it’s hard to speak in any certainties, but yes the high pressure could come in higher than models are showing, and we could be seeing models realize that. Lots of options still on the table with accumulating snowfall being one of them for WNC Tuesday into Wednesday.

Excellent Post! Thank you!

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29 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

 

63fcace2-191f-444d-9362-4ef4c54ae38e-png.15829

Hoping for E-18 .... but knowing it will probably verify as E-9. On a brighter note, every ensemble from the 18z run of the GFS has accumulating snow in the mountains.

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