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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland
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51 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Please don't do away with the Area Forecast Discussions.   We live by them !

 

Agreed. IMO GSP and Blacksburg offices do a fantastic job with their respective AFD's especially with the terrain and elevation variables that make our area so unique and hard to pin down forecast wise at times. Also, it's kind of fun when Mets personalities are revealed sometimes when major weather systems are approaching. You can tell they genuinely love what they do.

On the flip side, I would be disappointed if I lived in East Tennessee. The AFD is virtually nonexistent from the  Knoxville office

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13 hours ago, isohume said:

The AFD is kind of a dinosaur product. It was designed well before the internet and public access to coordinate thoughts and forecasts between the media, EMs, and surrounding WFOs. All the coordination is now done through AWIPS collaboration or NWSChat. The average public doesn't even know the AFD exists nor has a need for it. I imagine with "Evolve", the AFD will go away within the next 5-10 years.      

No, No, ..... don't retire the AFD's. We all look forward to reading your thoughts.

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For our snow chances coming up the 6z NAM does not look as impressive because it delays the cold coming in so the totals are cut back a bit. The 6z GFS looks pretty good from what it had been showing.  Looks like a couple of slushy inches currently with the highest accumulation near Roan mountain and right along the boarder in the SW mountains. 

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

It will be really hard to get any sort of solid accumulation after 2 inches+ of rain unless it is coming down at a really good clip. 

Maybe but we still have some snow in areas believe it or not. The ground is still relatively cold with us having freezes the last several days. 

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4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Maybe but we still have some snow in areas believe it or not. The ground is still relatively cold with us having freezes the last several days. 

Yeah down into the ground is frozen but the top layer would not be as it’s pouring the rain as I type this. Hard to overcome puddles. Just a caveat, I’m not one of those people who preach ground temps but rain to snow is hard to do most times and have a decent accumulation aside from a slush puppy. 

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13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah down into the ground is frozen but the top layer would not be as it’s pouring the rain as I type this. Hard to overcome puddles. Just a caveat, I’m not one of those people who preach ground temps but rain to snow is hard to do most times and have a decent accumulation aside from a slush puppy. 

Oh yeah I hear yeah. Yeah its pouring the rain here also. Nice cool rainy day.

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I am very confident that we will at least see some sort of advisory or even maybe a watch coming soon to the boarder counties because of what had been issued for the TN side of the mountains...

 

 

 

Accumulating Snow Across the Higher Elevations Of The East
Tennessee Mountains Friday And Friday Night...

.Rain will continue tonight into Friday, but colder air moving in
on Friday will gradually change the rain to snow across the higher
elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Snow showers will then
linger in these areas Friday night. Significant snow accumulations
can be expected, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-210430-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0018.181221T1500Z-181222T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Mountain City, Cosby, Cedar Creek, Erwin,
Roan Mountain, Cades Cove, Gatlinburg, and Coker Creek
319 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 6 inches
  expected at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts
  will be possible across the highest elevations.

* WHERE...Higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.
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3km Nam is a hammer job for the higher elevations along the NC/TN border.  Wouldn't be surprised to see somewhere (Clingmans Dome) get over a foot.  Good luck to those of you in the higher elevations.  Thinking that we see some flakes make it into Asheville as well with winds gusting to 40mph tomorrow night.

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Here we go!!!!!

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FT...

.As a low pressure system tracks northeast of the area,
northwesterly flow will bring in cold air and lingering moisture
to the Southern Appalachians on Friday. Precipitation will start
out as all rain Friday morning, then snow levels will start to
drop during the afternoon hours to the valley floors by early
Friday evening. Snow showers will gradually taper off early
Saturday morning.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-210445-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0020.181221T1700Z-181222T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville,
and Tuckasegee
343 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches with up to 6 inches possible in the highest
  elevations of the Smokies. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50
  mph.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 ft near the Tennessee border in
  western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.
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Normally not one to ask for IMBY info, but any thoughts on when the transition occurs tomorrow for a place like Mt Leconte (approx. 6600 ft)? I'm going to head up there to try and get in on the action. My guess was that the change over would happen around 11 AM, so hoping to start hiking around 10 or so, but don't have much experience figuring out timing with what models show at elevation. Trying to time things so that I get back to my car afterwards just as the snow level gets to around 4000 feet (hopefully by 3 PM or so).

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Normally not one to ask for IMBY info, but any thoughts on when the transition occurs tomorrow for a place like Mt Leconte (approx. 6600 ft)? I'm going to head up there to try and get in on the action. My guess was that the change over would happen around 11 AM, so hoping to start hiking around 10 or so, but don't have much experience figuring out timing with what models show at elevation. Trying to time things so that I get back to my car afterwards just as the snow level gets to around 4000 feet (hopefully by 3 PM or so).

 

 

3km NAM has the switchover occurring around 7-8am in the highest elevations of Swain Co. Switchover should occur around noon-2pm for locations around 4000’.

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On 12/19/2018 at 8:15 AM, isohume said:

The AFD is kind of a dinosaur product. It was designed well before the internet and public access to coordinate thoughts and forecasts between the media, EMs, and surrounding WFOs. All the coordination is now done through AWIPS collaboration or NWSChat. The average public doesn't even know the AFD exists nor has a need for it. I imagine with "Evolve", the AFD will go away within the next 5-10 years.      

Count me in as one that would hate to see the AFD go away.  Not sure what "Evolve" is...

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1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said:

The new GFS drops the hammer on wnc don’t no how much stock I would put in it but fun to look at

Yeah I see that. The changeover would have to be fast and furious for that to happen. Will be interesting to see if it is onto something or it's off its rocket. The old GFS has some impressive totals but is not as uniform with snow accumulations as the NAM is... Will be interesting to see who wins out. 

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On 12/18/2018 at 11:20 PM, The Alchemist said:

 

 

Off topic again... but wanted to thank you guys, Just home now from Bristol speedway, and a grand time was had by all, my daughter was terrorizing everyone in the Christmas village with her deft wheelchair antics!!!  Also, Funnel cakes and hot chocolate were involved, would have been worth it at twice the price!!!  Interesting though, we've got more fallen snow on the ground here in Saluda than anywhere along the way up there...

Love this post...our main goal in this life is to help people...because we never know when the 'shoe' will switch.  I hope that this AMWX site will contribute to our society, where we can help each other via forecasting, communication, and genuine care for each other, no matter what's happening IMBY :)  

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41 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the 00z NAM looked impressive for sure. We will have to see how things turn out as this is very moisture latend but we really need the cold air to rush in here to get a sizable snow.

Hrrr  looks interesting. Over done on some aspects. 

But should fill in over GA AL TN etc. Multiple surface lows in GOM/Fl. At least 3.  Judging by radar too.

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5 hours ago, FLweather said:

Hrrr  looks interesting. Over done on some aspects. 

But should fill in over GA AL TN etc. Multiple surface lows in GOM/Fl. At least 3.  Judging by radar too.

The HRRR that just ran could be a warning shot for those below 4k feet. It has precip stopping around 02Z (9PM). Still clocks the really high elevations but not much precip left for the rest of the mtns after it’s cold enough.  We’ll see if it’s a trend or blip. 

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Well this morning's runs go like this. The GFS is the least impressive with regards to snow accumulations.  It has a few inches right along the boarder counties and that's it, the FV3 goes nuts for snow accumulations.  It has some places getting a foot over the SW mountains and hammers a good portion of the boarder counties with decent snowfall amounts.  The NAM has switched to have the majority of the heavy snow up near Roan mountain and right along the boarder and not much for the SW mountains... This is a very unique situation we have with the low so far south and not having a good air mass to work with behind it. Also it will be very windy so that is a factor and this will very much be an elevation defendant snow I think for the most part. So we will see how things go. I know one thing it is absolutely hammering the rain this morning. 

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