cold air aloft Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 51 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Please don't do away with the Area Forecast Discussions. We live by them ! Agreed. IMO GSP and Blacksburg offices do a fantastic job with their respective AFD's especially with the terrain and elevation variables that make our area so unique and hard to pin down forecast wise at times. Also, it's kind of fun when Mets personalities are revealed sometimes when major weather systems are approaching. You can tell they genuinely love what they do. On the flip side, I would be disappointed if I lived in East Tennessee. The AFD is virtually nonexistent from the Knoxville office 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I'm spending the evening on the porch with a glass of wine watching the sunset. I know we all want snow, but for now, this is honestly perfect weather while we wait. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm spending the evening on the porch with a glass of wine watching the sunset. I know we all want snow, but for now, this is honestly perfect weather while we wait. I absolutely agree. Perfect weather currently. Cold nights and average daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 13 hours ago, isohume said: The AFD is kind of a dinosaur product. It was designed well before the internet and public access to coordinate thoughts and forecasts between the media, EMs, and surrounding WFOs. All the coordination is now done through AWIPS collaboration or NWSChat. The average public doesn't even know the AFD exists nor has a need for it. I imagine with "Evolve", the AFD will go away within the next 5-10 years. No, No, ..... don't retire the AFD's. We all look forward to reading your thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Man the weenies are running wild in here lol. It still looks like we may see some snow from Friday night into Saturday morning but it does not look like much currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Although tonight's NAM looks much juicier than the GFS did at 18z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 For our snow chances coming up the 6z NAM does not look as impressive because it delays the cold coming in so the totals are cut back a bit. The 6z GFS looks pretty good from what it had been showing. Looks like a couple of slushy inches currently with the highest accumulation near Roan mountain and right along the boarder in the SW mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 It will be really hard to get any sort of solid accumulation after 2 inches+ of rain unless it is coming down at a really good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It will be really hard to get any sort of solid accumulation after 2 inches+ of rain unless it is coming down at a really good clip. Maybe but we still have some snow in areas believe it or not. The ground is still relatively cold with us having freezes the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: Maybe but we still have some snow in areas believe it or not. The ground is still relatively cold with us having freezes the last several days. Yeah down into the ground is frozen but the top layer would not be as it’s pouring the rain as I type this. Hard to overcome puddles. Just a caveat, I’m not one of those people who preach ground temps but rain to snow is hard to do most times and have a decent accumulation aside from a slush puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yeah down into the ground is frozen but the top layer would not be as it’s pouring the rain as I type this. Hard to overcome puddles. Just a caveat, I’m not one of those people who preach ground temps but rain to snow is hard to do most times and have a decent accumulation aside from a slush puppy. Oh yeah I hear yeah. Yeah its pouring the rain here also. Nice cool rainy day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 How are we feeling about the Euro's short range accuracy? Has it performed decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I'm not sure about the Euro snow maps short term but the 18z NAM has beefed up totals along the boarder again... So I think this has merit to watch closely especially this coming in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I am very confident that we will at least see some sort of advisory or even maybe a watch coming soon to the boarder counties because of what had been issued for the TN side of the mountains... Accumulating Snow Across the Higher Elevations Of The East Tennessee Mountains Friday And Friday Night... .Rain will continue tonight into Friday, but colder air moving in on Friday will gradually change the rain to snow across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Snow showers will then linger in these areas Friday night. Significant snow accumulations can be expected, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet. TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-210430- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0018.181221T1500Z-181222T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Mountain City, Cosby, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Roan Mountain, Cades Cove, Gatlinburg, and Coker Creek 319 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 6 inches expected at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts will be possible across the highest elevations. * WHERE...Higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. * WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3km Nam is a hammer job for the higher elevations along the NC/TN border. Wouldn't be surprised to see somewhere (Clingmans Dome) get over a foot. Good luck to those of you in the higher elevations. Thinking that we see some flakes make it into Asheville as well with winds gusting to 40mph tomorrow night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Here we go!!!!! SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FT... .As a low pressure system tracks northeast of the area, northwesterly flow will bring in cold air and lingering moisture to the Southern Appalachians on Friday. Precipitation will start out as all rain Friday morning, then snow levels will start to drop during the afternoon hours to the valley floors by early Friday evening. Snow showers will gradually taper off early Saturday morning. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-210445- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0020.181221T1700Z-181222T1700Z/ Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, and Tuckasegee 343 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with up to 6 inches possible in the highest elevations of the Smokies. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500 ft near the Tennessee border in western North Carolina. * WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 With those winds and the snow we could see whiteout conditions in the favored areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Normally not one to ask for IMBY info, but any thoughts on when the transition occurs tomorrow for a place like Mt Leconte (approx. 6600 ft)? I'm going to head up there to try and get in on the action. My guess was that the change over would happen around 11 AM, so hoping to start hiking around 10 or so, but don't have much experience figuring out timing with what models show at elevation. Trying to time things so that I get back to my car afterwards just as the snow level gets to around 4000 feet (hopefully by 3 PM or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Normally not one to ask for IMBY info, but any thoughts on when the transition occurs tomorrow for a place like Mt Leconte (approx. 6600 ft)? I'm going to head up there to try and get in on the action. My guess was that the change over would happen around 11 AM, so hoping to start hiking around 10 or so, but don't have much experience figuring out timing with what models show at elevation. Trying to time things so that I get back to my car afterwards just as the snow level gets to around 4000 feet (hopefully by 3 PM or so). 3km NAM has the switchover occurring around 7-8am in the highest elevations of Swain Co. Switchover should occur around noon-2pm for locations around 4000’. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The new GFS drops the hammer on wnc don’t no how much stock I would put in it but fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 8:15 AM, isohume said: The AFD is kind of a dinosaur product. It was designed well before the internet and public access to coordinate thoughts and forecasts between the media, EMs, and surrounding WFOs. All the coordination is now done through AWIPS collaboration or NWSChat. The average public doesn't even know the AFD exists nor has a need for it. I imagine with "Evolve", the AFD will go away within the next 5-10 years. Count me in as one that would hate to see the AFD go away. Not sure what "Evolve" is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said: The new GFS drops the hammer on wnc don’t no how much stock I would put in it but fun to look at Yeah I see that. The changeover would have to be fast and furious for that to happen. Will be interesting to see if it is onto something or it's off its rocket. The old GFS has some impressive totals but is not as uniform with snow accumulations as the NAM is... Will be interesting to see who wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/18/2018 at 11:20 PM, The Alchemist said: Off topic again... but wanted to thank you guys, Just home now from Bristol speedway, and a grand time was had by all, my daughter was terrorizing everyone in the Christmas village with her deft wheelchair antics!!! Also, Funnel cakes and hot chocolate were involved, would have been worth it at twice the price!!! Interesting though, we've got more fallen snow on the ground here in Saluda than anywhere along the way up there... Love this post...our main goal in this life is to help people...because we never know when the 'shoe' will switch. I hope that this AMWX site will contribute to our society, where we can help each other via forecasting, communication, and genuine care for each other, no matter what's happening IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 0z Nam upping the ante yet again even juicer then the 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Not sure I buy the higher totals the nam is pushing out. seems like we had an event earlier where the NAM increased totals then pulled back at the last second. Think it was a NWFS event or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Yeah the 00z NAM looked impressive for sure. We will have to see how things turn out as this is very moisture latend but we really need the cold air to rush in here to get a sizable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 41 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the 00z NAM looked impressive for sure. We will have to see how things turn out as this is very moisture latend but we really need the cold air to rush in here to get a sizable snow. Hrrr looks interesting. Over done on some aspects. But should fill in over GA AL TN etc. Multiple surface lows in GOM/Fl. At least 3. Judging by radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 hours ago, FLweather said: Hrrr looks interesting. Over done on some aspects. But should fill in over GA AL TN etc. Multiple surface lows in GOM/Fl. At least 3. Judging by radar too. The HRRR that just ran could be a warning shot for those below 4k feet. It has precip stopping around 02Z (9PM). Still clocks the really high elevations but not much precip left for the rest of the mtns after it’s cold enough. We’ll see if it’s a trend or blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Well this morning's runs go like this. The GFS is the least impressive with regards to snow accumulations. It has a few inches right along the boarder counties and that's it, the FV3 goes nuts for snow accumulations. It has some places getting a foot over the SW mountains and hammers a good portion of the boarder counties with decent snowfall amounts. The NAM has switched to have the majority of the heavy snow up near Roan mountain and right along the boarder and not much for the SW mountains... This is a very unique situation we have with the low so far south and not having a good air mass to work with behind it. Also it will be very windy so that is a factor and this will very much be an elevation defendant snow I think for the most part. So we will see how things go. I know one thing it is absolutely hammering the rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 GSP not impressed and they pretty much nail these nwf events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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