McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Very tricky forecast to say the least! Been watching this thing for a week being right on the escarpment im praying sleet and heavy rates will limit any ice and keep my power on. That used to not bother me if the power went out but as i have a son now ill pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Shows some decent ice accumulation before the changeover though. Still nice to have it washed away. The 3K Nam shows a changeover to rain for basically everyone as the heaviest precip is rolling through.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Tyler Penland said: Shows some decent ice accumulation before the changeover though. Still nice to have it washed away. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Yea especially along the 81 corridor up in VA. 3k nam clown map is just stupid lol trying to signify its intent on laying down some significant ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The Blue Ridge south of Roanoke into NW NC are gonna be the "winners" here. Floyd County, VA does ice really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Yea especially along the 81 corridor up in VA. 3k nam clown map is just stupid lol trying to signify its intent on laying down some significant ice accretion. Keep in mind it has a tendency to overdo precip by quite a bit, especially in CAD events right along the escarpment. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Disc said: The Blue Ridge south of Roanoke into NW NC are gonna be the "winners" here. Floyd County, VA does ice really well. What’s your call based off what you’ve seen here ice accretion wise and do you think the CAD is still underplayed? Also does Blacksburg go ahead and issue winter storm watches due to the time of the year with the afternoon package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: Keep in mind it has a tendency to overdo precip by quite a bit, especially in CAD events right along the escarpment. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Oh absolutely. I’ve watched these things unfold time in and time out with the nam but even half of that with the temps where they are progged to be has a recipe for a surprise in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 RGEM is absolute worst scenario for anyone west of 77 in NC. Gets the foothills down to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: What’s your call based off what you’ve seen here ice accretion wise and do you think the CAD is still underplayed? Also does Blacksburg go ahead and issue winter storm watches due to the time of the year with the afternoon package? I think we can cut what the models are spitting out by as much as 60 to 70 percent. Even doing that, that's still a significant amount of ice. Rates are heavy and accretion is not efficient with temps 30-32. Start getting temps into the 20s, then that's a different story. This is a very anomalous storm and there's really not much in the analogs to compare it to. As for headlines, they can be issued, but I can't disclose if they will/will not be issued. Current forecast as of 5am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, Disc said: I think we can cut what the models are spitting out by as much as 60 to 70 percent. Even doing that, that's still a significant amount of ice. Rates are heavy and accretion is not efficient with temps 30-32. Start getting temps into the 20s, then that's a different story. This is a very anomalous storm and there's really not much in the analogs to compare it to. As for headlines, they can be issued, but I can't disclose if they will/will not be issued. Current forecast as of 5am: 12z RGEM has most areas in the upper 20s at hour 48. Seeing some 26-27 readings. That would be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Winter storm watches out for the mountains. Let's get this winter started. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z RGEM going bonkers again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Pair these temps...with this. That could be some serious icing around the BRP with this setup, maybe even mid 20's for a couple of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Winter storm watches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Good luck guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Good luck guys! How you doin man it ain't the same without ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: How you doin man it ain't the same without ya. I have been better really and I do miss the mountains. I have a lot of family stuff going on so I'll be back the second week in December for as long as I can see. It will be good to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Met1985 said: I have been better really and I do miss the mountains. I have a lot of family stuff going on so I'll be back the second week in December for as long as I can see. It will be good to be back. I hate to hear that ill be praying for ya I know I speak for all of us ur missed greatly it ain't the mtn crew without ya and theres light at the end of that tunnel I promise ya that brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 What's interesting is that the RGEM actually has 850's sub freezing for most of the mountains during the heart of the event which would probably keep it as sleet rather than freezing rain. Wish there were soundings available somewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: I hate to hear that ill be praying for ya I know I speak for all of us ur missed greatly it ain't the mtn crew without ya and theres light at the end of that tunnel I promise ya that brother. Thanks man I greatly appreciate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: What's interesting is that the RGEM actually has 850's sub freezing for most of the mountains during the heart of the event which would probably keep it as sleet rather than freezing rain. Wish there were soundings available somewhere. I am down here in the foothills. Hopefully, I will escape most of the onslaught this storm will bring. Good luck to you guys higher up.... hope you get a sleet-fest instead of all that freezing rain that is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 A little bit of light sleet bouncing off my truck as I walked by with an armful of firewood. Just realized I'm sitting at 30.2°/28.4° currently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Gonna be rough tomorrow night regardless, gonna stock up on the essentials; Coronas. Anyways, the FV3 or whatever it's called has some interesting gulf lows at the end of the month, this is shaping up to possibly be a big start to winter, maybe not just this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Gonna be rough tomorrow night regardless, gonna stock up on the essentials; Coronas. Anyways, the FV3 or whatever it's called has some interesting gulf lows at the end of the month, this is shaping up to possibly be a big start to winter, maybe not just this week. I agree I haven't been this excited. Since 09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I also can’t believe how little talk there is about tomorrow night. Almost no one is talking about it that I’ve seen whether on social media or news. I think many will be surprised Thursday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Had a neighbor tell me today that she remembers a pretty bad ice storm around Thanksgiving in the early 80’s around Boone. She was thinking 82 or 83. Anyone remember that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Is it me or did the 0z NAM nest (3k, 12k, 32k) look a little less significant for the NC mountains? Seems to have shifted a little bit more north and doesn’t have that extended icing. 0z RGEM is a whole other beast and is almost a carbon copy of its 18z predecessor. I really believe the RGEM always tends to overdo the CAD setups but not to say it’s never been spot on either. Some form of a blend naturally seems in order. I just never trust the GFS in these setups because it doesn’t have the low level superiority the NAM does to sniff these things out a little better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Warnings are up! ...Heavy mixed precipitation expected above 2500 feet. Mixed precipitation expected below 2500 feet. Above 2500 feet, total sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected. Below 2500 feet, total sleet accumulations of up to one quarter inch and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 hours ago, AirNelson39 said: Had a neighbor tell me today that she remembers a pretty bad ice storm around Thanksgiving in the early 80’s around Boone. She was thinking 82 or 83. Anyone remember that one? Nothing in the NCSU winter storm database, but I'm sure there have been storms that have been overlooked up in the mountains. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, BretWheatley said: Warnings are up! ...Heavy mixed precipitation expected above 2500 feet. Mixed precipitation expected below 2500 feet. Above 2500 feet, total sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected. Below 2500 feet, total sleet accumulations of up to one quarter inch and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected. At this point the mountains are in the crosshairs; particularly the higher valleys. **which may be worse than the higher peaks My son is at App State and my wife's family live in Boone. I told them to get ready for lots of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now