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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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Just now, HurricaneTracker said:

We will see. RGEM matched it. Now we wait to see if GFS has the warm nose

I’m not discounting it, I just need to see it on more than one run. If 18Z has it, especially more pronounced, then it’s trouble for some areas especially west of escarpment. 

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On the Big Ridge side a half mile in. NOAA now has us progged for 14-25" in the point forecast in Cashiers. Yeah!

How far up? I'm from cashiers.  Lived there till I was 16. I  remember the blizzard of 93 well. We had almost 3 feet up there.


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I think almost everyone goes to sleet except for Avery up through Watauga then up in VA. I likely go over here too in VA. I still think a good 6-12 front end thump for most maybe more in Northern foothills. Then inch or 2 of sleet and glaze of zr on top. Big time winter storm

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7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Just got a text from my brother 4100’ South Central Jackson county near Transylvania border “getting pounded!”

 

 

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So it’s elevation dependent at the moment. Looks like 3000’+ is where you need to be to see snow.  French Broad Valley just too warm at the moment. Low 40s!  Supports rain as HRRR indicated. Problem is, HRRR keeps AVL all rain until 9pm. Further cuts snow totals.  GSP afternoon update will be difficult to say the least. But really need to think about reducing totals...perhaps dramatically.

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5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

So it’s elevation dependent at the moment. Looks like 3000’+ is where you need to be to see snow.  French Broad Valley just too warm at the moment. Low 40s!  Supports rain as HRRR indicated. Problem is, HRRR keeps AVL all rain until 9pm. Further cuts snow totals.  GSP afternoon update will be difficult to say the least. But really need to think about reducing totals...perhaps dramatically.

Hendersonville is dumping which isn't dependent on elevation. Could it be it's closer proximity to the escapement and the wedge?

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7 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

So it’s elevation dependent at the moment. Looks like 3000’+ is where you need to be to see snow.  French Broad Valley just too warm at the moment. Low 40s!  Supports rain as HRRR indicated. Problem is, HRRR keeps AVL all rain until 9pm. Further cuts snow totals.  GSP afternoon update will be difficult to say the least. But really need to think about reducing totals...perhaps dramatically.

Rain has started in West Asheville, and currently at 40 degrees.

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