Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm actually in that area right now, came home to take dad out to the woods before the storm hits. It’s a pretty area to hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 39 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Here is the MOB morning disco. Gas meets fire for you guys upstream! .NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...A strong upper level shortwave will move eastward out of the southwest states today. An associated area of low pressure will move eastward along the coast this afternoon and evening with a warm front stretched eastward from the low along the coast. Ahead of the low, a strong low level jet of 50 to 60 knots is expected to develop and this will help bring an increase surge of Gulf moisture into the region by this afternoon. Precipitable water values are forecast to climb to near 1.9 inches just in advance of the low. The combination of the deep layer moisture and strong forcing downstream of the upper shortwave and sfc low will lead to development of heavy rain across the area primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Most areas can expect a general 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts before the rain exists the area late tonight. The severe weather potential continues to look very marginal and confined to areas along the immediate coast where weak instability may reach inland as the warm front moves north just ahead of the approaching low pressure system. We cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado or damaging wind gust due to the strong low level shear. However, the best potential for rotating storms will remain over the coastal waters. The primary threat will continue to be the potential for flash flooding in the watch area. In addition, rip currents and heavy surf can be expected at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible late this afternoon into tonight. There will be a very sharp temperature gradient along the warm front today with locations north of the warm front staying in the mid/ upper 40s and low 50s. Locations south of the warm front could reach into the upper 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions will also develop today, especially in areas south of the warm front along the coast where the higher momentum air aloft mix down to the surface. A wind advisory may be required later today. /13 Always nice to confirm upstream obs. Fire hose is primed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Heads up! High pressure centered in Illinois is 1039.2mb! This is the strongest it has been and bests all model expectations from the last several runs. Something to watch as the day unfolds. Edit - note the temperatures BELOW ZERO in Wisconsin. Teens in central Illinois. GFS was too warm by 10-15 degrees in this area of Wisconsin, but NAM not too far off. NAM and GFS about 1 mb too low on the strength of the high though. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Morning folks! Busiest day my store has ever seen yesterday. Crazy stuff. I see the 6z NAM was super juicy for the northern mountains. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Heads up! High pressure centered in Illinois is 1039.2mb! This is the strongest it has been and bests all model expectations from the last several runs. Something to watch as the day unfolds. Edit - note the temperatures BELOW ZERO in Wisconsin. Teens in central Illinois. GFS was too warm by 10-15 degrees in this area of Wisconsin, but NAM not too far off. NAM and GFS about 1 mb too low on the strength of the high though. Thanks for the real time data! This is good news! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Morning everyone! I’ll be posting in this thread this weekend. Leaving now from Atlanta and should be in Hendersonville around 11. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I haven’t been this excited about a storm since January 2016, lived in NYC, got to experience that 27-30 inches. Most amazing thing I’ve ever experienced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Down to 33.8 from 34.5 in the last half hour here in Cashiers, NC with steady light rain. Should be seeing some mixing soon according to WYFF radar estimates but nothing IRL on the ground as of yet. Hoping to see winter weather shortly!Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Heads up! High pressure centered in Illinois is 1039.2mb! This is the strongest it has been and bests all model expectations from the last several runs. Something to watch as the day unfolds. Edit - note the temperatures BELOW ZERO in Wisconsin. Teens in central Illinois. GFS was too warm by 10-15 degrees in this area of Wisconsin, but NAM not too far off. NAM and GFS about 1 mb too low on the strength of the high though. Thanks for all your updates HT. I appreciate all your information. Anything that points to no(or at least less) sleet or freezing rain is what I like to hear. I really hope we get a foot, and then hope for bonus snow after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 59 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Feel like looking at the weather while in a tree stand is a weird way to use time but ih well. Some encouraging runs for us northern guys. Let's see what happens. Time to really start watching the short range models. Todays the day boys. Feel free to post all tree stand observations here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Got reports of wet snow and sleet falling across the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We've got snow mixing in now!Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We've got snow mixing in now!Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TapatalkThat was quick! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 No doubt, much earlier than progged. Me likey!That was quick! .Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Light snow in Haywood fellas! Let the fun begin! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Yeah baby, enjoy! I love daytime snow storms. Light snow in Haywood fellas! Let the fun begin!Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Got a couple of live cameras up on my site for those interested in watching the event unfold.Downtown Asheville Live Camera: https://www.ashevillewx.com/gtadowntownashevillecamCandler/Mt Pisgah Live Camera: https://www.ashevillewx.com/mt-pisgah-live-camera 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Yeah baby, enjoy! I love daytime snow storms. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Oh yeah! Especially early season snow storms! Going to be a great weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just went outside already a slushy coating on the cars. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Noice! Just went outside already a slushy coating on the cars. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Just went outside already a slushy coating on the cars. Wow.That is nice to hear. Still nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Just went outside already a slushy coating on the cars. So you are saying we got a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: So you are saying we got a chance We got a chance. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Rainforrest said: We got a chance. Lol I think your area may get a rather remarkable amount of snow unless sleet etc knocks the totals down. The orographic lift will be intense. Please keep us all updated on what transpires in your vicinity. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I think Tom Petty sums it up perfectly. The waiting IS the hardest part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, MikeGold said: I think your area may get a rather remarkable amount of snow unless sleet etc knocks the totals down. The orographic lift will be intense. Please keep us all updated on what transpires in your vicinity. Thanks! Will do. We have over performed with every system this year precipitation wise so I don’t see why this system should be any different. We’re right at 130” of rain for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Flurries here in wolf already and 30°...warmest morning this week by far! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Will do. We have over performed with every system this year precipitation wise so I don’t see why this system should be any different. We’re right at 130” of rain for the year. Wow, 75” a year is classified as rainforest. You are nearly double that(or 55” above rainforest classification).. astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamabuilder86 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I’m posted up at Black Mountain after a 7 hour drive... we clearly love the snow. Only staying at around 2500ft, wanted to play it safe just in case cause I can’t stay past Monday. I’ll keeo you guys updated. I imagine I’m going to get all I want and then some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 So far I've seen 3 more does than snowflakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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