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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

Tyler Penland

By Tyler Penland,
in Southeastern States

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Just wanted to post MOB's thoughts on downstream convection and the "Fire Hose". 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...There are not a lot of changes
from the previous forecast thinking. The primary forecast challenges
continue to revolve around the upcoming heavy rain event and the
associated potential for flooding impacts across our region, as well
as on the potential for an isolated severe storm or two near the
immediate coast Saturday into Saturday night.

An upper level trough located near the vicinity of southwest Arizona
and northern Baja this afternoon is forecast to translate eastward
toward west Texas into Saturday morning, before lifting northeastward
toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region through Saturday
night. Surface low pressure will develop over southeast Texas
tonight and track eastward, likely paralleling the immediate
northern Gulf Coast through Saturday night. Deep moisture ahead of a
shortwave trough translating over Lousiana and Mississippi will
spread into northwestern portions of our area tonight, and we will
carry a chance of rain over these zones, with the best chance mainly
focused northwest of I-65. Short range model guidance remains in
good agreement with bringing large scale ascent into our forecast
area ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper level trough and
surface low pressure system Saturday into Saturday night. The
potential for locally heavier rainfall will spread into southeast
Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama Saturday morning, where
likely to categorical POPs have been indicated between 6 AM and
noon. Short range and available high resolution guidance then
continues to indicate that heavy rain will spread across the
remainder of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening, with potential QPF amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally
higher totals possible across much of the region. Some short range
and high resolution guidance continues to signal higher QPF amounts
impacting portions of southwest/south central Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening, including
locations that received very heavy rainfall last weekend. Given the
saturated soils/antecedent conditions, we have opted to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for locations roughly south of a Mobile to
Andalusia line for Saturday afternoon and evening.

The severe weather potential otherwise continues to look very
limited/marginal, and mainly across locations along the immediate
coast where very weak instability may penetrate inland ahead of the
approaching low pressure system, coincident with strong low level
and deep layer shear. We will need to monitor for an isolated severe
storm capable of damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the
coast. A high risk of rip currents will exist along area Gulf
beaches from Friday night through Sunday night. High surf, and minor
coastal flooding will also be possible Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
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BretWx

BretWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

How are you determining this?  What parameters/fields?  Thunder snow is not usually done by upright convection (summer storms) but rather by slant wise convection which is hard to get model output on. 

 Honestly was just eyeing it based on the upright coming through. Spoke too soon! 

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Camped out here at 4650 on Beech.  29.3 currently with still 1-2 inches of snow on the ground from Wednesday.  Just in the last hour a light breeze out of the east has started.  DP is 26 currently.  My location gets great wedge winds as I've clocked 50+ gusts twice this year from wedges.  So the wedge is starting to develop just a bit.

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BretWx

BretWx

Posted
Posted

Interesting spread in the latest warning from GSP: 

WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Most of the
precipitation will be snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to
18 inches are expected, with accumulations increasing from
south to north and as elevation increases. Ice accumulations
of around a tenth of an inch are also expected.

 

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Another busy day at work for me! I know there is a dedicated obs thread that you folks will want to use. Please post or re-post in this thread. The dedicated one is just to much for me me to wade thru. Good luck to all you folks with a special shout out to the old timers Joe, Jason, Mark, Thomas, & anyone else I forgot!, lots of pics and vids please!

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Another busy day at work for me! I know there is a dedicated obs thread that you folks will want to use. Please post or re-post in this thread. The dedicated one is just to much for me me to wade thru. Good luck to all you folks with a special shout out to the old timers Joe, Jason, Mark, Thomas, & anyone else I forgot!, lots of pics and vids please!

Game time is upon us here.

High country puts some nice Wright Weather maps in the discussion thread a short while ago. 

 

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Here is the MOB morning disco. Gas meets fire for you guys upstream! 

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...A strong upper level
shortwave will move eastward out of the southwest states today.
An associated area of low pressure will move eastward along the
coast this afternoon and evening with a warm front stretched
eastward from the low along the coast. Ahead of the low, a strong
low level jet of 50 to 60 knots is expected to develop and this
will help bring an increase surge of Gulf moisture into the
region by this afternoon. Precipitable water values are forecast
to climb to near 1.9 inches just in advance of the low. The
combination of the deep layer moisture and strong forcing
downstream of the upper shortwave and sfc low will lead to
development of heavy rain across the area primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. Most areas can expect a general 2 to
4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts before the rain
exists the area late tonight.

The severe weather potential continues to look very marginal and
confined to areas along the immediate coast where weak instability
may reach inland as the warm front moves north just ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. We cannot completely rule out an
isolated tornado or damaging wind gust due to the strong low level
shear. However, the best potential for rotating storms will remain
over the coastal waters. The primary threat will continue to be the
potential for flash flooding in the watch area. In addition, rip
currents and heavy surf can be expected at the beaches. Minor
coastal flooding will also be possible late this afternoon into
tonight.

There will be a very sharp temperature gradient along the warm front
today with locations north of the warm front staying in the mid/
upper 40s and low 50s. Locations south of the warm front could reach
into the upper 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions will also develop
today, especially in areas south of the warm front along the coast
where the higher momentum air aloft mix down to the surface. A
wind advisory may be required later today. /13
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Rainforrest

Rainforrest

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Feel like looking at the weather while in a tree stand is a weird way to use time but ih well. Some encouraging runs for us northern guys. Let's see what happens. Time to really start watching the short range models. Todays the day boys.

We used to come up and hunt on Nathan’s creek in Ashe county. 

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