2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Can GSP issue an emergency interim discussion after that 18Z suite of the GFS, NAM, and CMC?

I wouldn't even admit I pit that out on purpose. 

I'd just come out and pretend it was by accident. 

'Sorry folks, Phil spilled coffee on his keyboard.....'

[Tyler Penland]

SkewT for the NAM at the one frame it shows sleet for Boone. Entire column well below freezing at 69 and 75 so I would think any sleet would be very brief and fairly easily overcome by rates.

 

[McDowell_Weather]

 I respect gsp but todays maps and disscussions could have been handled way better imo...

[Hvward]

SkewT for the NAM at the one frame it shows sleet for Boone. Entire column well below freezing at 69 and 75 so I would think any sleet would be very brief and fairly easily overcome by rates.

 

 

 

There better be a hell of a lot of energy to melt at 700mb, if GSP is basing their forecast on the skew-t.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

5 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

 I respect gsp but todays maps and disscussions could have been handled way better imo...

All joking aside, I completely agree. That was simply too much inconsistency and waffling on their part for an 8 hour period at this juncture. They should have at least waited until after the 18z. At least. 

[Casualbrain]

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

SkewT for the NAM at the one frame it shows sleet for Boone. Entire column well below freezing at 69 and 75 so I would think any sleet would be very brief and fairly easily overcome by rates.

Elevation is your friend!  3333 ft. ASL is a bonus as warm nose can't quite get over the mountain.
Blowing Rock will do slightly better as well based on my observations after years living there.

[McDowell_Weather]

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

All joking aside, I completely agree. That was simply too much inconsistency for an 8 hour period at this juncture. They should have at least waited until after the 18z. At least. 

The puplic pays attention especially with facebook no need to cause panic to say gotcha a few hours later

[snowbird1230]

Historic Bust

[McDowell_Weather]

Idk guys ive definitely lowered expectations for big totals i cant shake feb 2014

[SnoJoe]

17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Can GSP issue an emergency interim discussion after that 18Z suite of the GFS, NAM, and CMC?

I guess they could, but they won't this far out. I just saw some posts on facebook saying "looks like we might dodge the bullet". I good amount of mountain folks won't think twice about a "1 to 8 inch" storm. Overhyping can be a bad thing, but so can under-hyping. But who knows, they might be right.

10 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Maybe GSP thought it would be fun to bust 1 year after they did last year. They never did catch up last year.

Just went back and read a few pages of that storm in our thread and nobody got it right. They do try and are one of the best offices I've seen out there, so maybe they're on to something.

 

Boyer just jumped on the warm wagon. He said more rain and sleet now.  Said he was "lowering his expectations".

[BretWx]

4 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Idk guys ive definitely lowered expectations for big totals i cant shake feb 2014

Likewise. Of course, a better way to go into these things. Honestly half the fun is the week leading up to it. This has been the fastest in recent memory! 

[NavarreDon]

Wanted to say a couple things about GSP. 1st off you have different Mets writing AFD’s and they have different perspectives. While they collaborate the lead forecaster has the most input. 2nd. This is essentially their 1st call map and will change at least 4 more times before the storm arrives. 3rd they are some of the best in the business but are human and prone to error (anyone remember the farmer reference in the AFD from the Christmas 2010 storm). I would much rather have them bust calling for less and getting more than vice versa. Take a breath and let’s see where it goes.


.

[BretWx]

FV3 looking great. I know things will change tomorrow. Enjoying the ride! 

[HKY1894]

Yeah way to early to call bust especially northern mountains globals all look absolutely great right now only bad model is nam and it’s not even bad in mountains still drop 14 or more in Boone. More worrisome for Asheville area but if globals are closer to reality even you guys are gonna get hit hard. The NAM past 48 hours has been a total joke in the Midwest with this even so it’s laughable to even consider it right now


.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I guess they could, but they won't this far out. I just saw some posts on facebook saying "looks like we might dodge the bullet". I good amount of mountain folks won't think twice about a "1 to 8 inch" storm. Overhyping can be a bad thing, but so can under-hyping. But who knows, they might be right.

Just went back and read a few pages of that storm in our thread and nobody got it right. They do try and are one of the best offices I've seen out there, so maybe they're on to something.

 

Boyer just jumped on the warm wagon. He said more rain and sleet now.  Said he was "lowering his expectations".

 Boyer said that because of the mess that was put out at GSP

[ncjoaquin]

35 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I guess they could, but they won't this far out. I just saw some posts on facebook saying "looks like we might dodge the bullet". I good amount of mountain folks won't think twice about a "1 to 8 inch" storm. Overhyping can be a bad thing, but so can under-hyping. But who knows, they might be right.

Just went back and read a few pages of that storm in our thread and nobody got it right. They do try and are one of the best offices I've seen out there, so maybe they're on to something.

 

Boyer just jumped on the warm wagon. He said more rain and sleet now.  Said he was "lowering his expectations".

You are right about that Joe. GSP is the best. This seems odd, but I am sure they have sound reasoning.  Plus, I am a fellow reporter of what is going on. That is my main skill that I have held with you over time. 

23 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Wanted to say a couple things about GSP. 1st off you have different Mets writing AFD’s and they have different perspectives. While they collaborate the lead forecaster has the most input. 2nd. This is essentially their 1st call map and will change at least 4 more times before the storm arrives. 3rd they are some of the best in the business but are human and prone to error (anyone remember the farmer reference in the AFD from the Christmas 2010 storm). I would much rather have them bust calling for less and getting more than vice versa. Take a breath and let’s see where it goes.


.

Correct Don. I think they are the best. I guess time will tell if they are on the right track or not. I have always appreciated their forecasts.

[Tyler Penland]

4 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Yeah way to early to call bust especially northern mountains globals all look absolutely great right now only bad model is nam and it’s not even bad in mountains still drop 14 or more in Boone. More worrisome for Asheville area but if globals are closer to reality even you guys are gonna get hit hard. The NAM past 48 hours has been a total joke in the Midwest with this even so it’s laughable to even consider it right now


.

The skew-t's for the Asheville area don't really show a major warm nose on the NAM. Literally looks like it takes part of the column above 850 just *barely* above freezing. Still easily overcome by even decent rates IMO. 

[HKY1894]

The skew-t's for the Asheville area don't really show a major warm nose on the NAM. Literally looks like it takes part of the column above 850 just *barely* above freezing. Still easily overcome by even decent rates IMO. 

Agreed, feel like GSP got nervous from low QPF runs of 12z gfs/nam


.

[HurricaneTracker]

Good evening everyone.  I wanted to take a moment and give y’all an update in light of the disastrous communications issue that is unfolding before our eyes.

1. Overall things have NOT changed that much since this time yesterday.  Euro came in with a swath of 20”+ from KAVL to KTNB and consistent liquid equivalents around 2.50”.  Duly noted is that the Euro was NOT mentioned in the afternoon discussion by GSP.   It has been absolutely rock solid on this storm system since last Saturday!  To boot, we added the CMC model today with a lot of liquid equivalent, too.  And now the 18Z FV3 (which we should all be looking at since it IS our future!), comes in with at least 2.00” of liquid (minimum QPF in Bristol, TN but that is expected given the setup).

2. 12Z NAM was a dumpster fire and has since corrected itself at 18Z (more corrections coming too, I suspect).  12Z GFS was a dumpster fire (just ridiculously low QPF) and p-type issues abound.  Yet, this is the model of choice today by GSP.  Oh but wait there’s more!  18Z GFS self-corrected and came in with more QPF and colder wedging solution.  You want to hang your hat on the GFS?  Better be ready to make more changes to the snowfall forecast as the GFS shifts.

3. Let’s talk warm nose.  Does it exist?  YES.  Someone in the main thread said NE Georgia was out of the snow.  I agree.  This is climatology.  Even parts of the favored escarpment areas will see sleet for a time being Sunday morning.  What is confusing the models is the isothermal layer in the soundings. My eye sees the isothermal layer as a deep layer of snow, since dendrites will be falling into this isothermal layer. ALL MODELS say that even at 850mb temperature of 0.1 deg F this melts the flakes.  I just completely and utterly disagree.  In all my years of forecasting, deep isothermal layers that hover on the 0 deg isotherm (and are below freezing either side of this layer) tend to run as all snow. Watch for this in the next 24 hours.

4. Do we need to cut down snow amounts?  Maybe. But don’t forget we are using a 7:1 ratio anyway to start with (see my post from yesterday).  So instead of 2.50” of liquid coming out to 17.5” of cement, maybe we go 2.00” of liquid and 14” of snow.   I’m currently most comfortable going with a range of 8-12” for KAVL and the eastern escarpment.  Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose.  So instead of 17” there, I think 8-12” also applies to them.

Hang in there folks.  Watch the 00Z trends.  Can’t ignore the intense dynamics and the fire hose that is our deep tropical moisture connection!

[strongwxnc]

Soundings off the 18gfs for my location show a very shallow layer of warm area at 54 . By 66 it’s 0.0 at the surface. Upper levels are in the negative.
Rates will over come


.

[BretWx]

4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Good evening everyone.  I wanted to take a moment and give y’all an update in light of the disastrous communications issue that is unfolding before our eyes.

1. Overall things have NOT changed that much since this time yesterday.  Euro came in with a swath of 20”+ from KAVL to KTNB and consistent liquid equivalents around 2.50”.  Duly noted is that the Euro was NOT mentioned in the afternoon discussion by GSP.   It has been absolutely rock solid on this storm system since last Saturday!  To boot, we added the CMC model today with a lot of liquid equivalent, too.  And now the 18Z FV3 (which we should all be looking at since it IS our future!), comes in with at least 2.00” of liquid (minimum QPF in Bristol, TN but that is expected given the setup).

2. 12Z NAM was a dumpster fire and has since corrected itself at 18Z (more corrections coming too, I suspect).  12Z GFS was a dumpster fire (just ridiculously low QPF) and p-type issues abound.  Yet, this is the model of choice today by GSP.  Oh but wait there’s more!  18Z GFS self-corrected and came in with more QPF and colder wedging solution.  You want to hang your hat on the GFS?  Better be ready to make more changes to the snowfall forecast as the GFS shifts.

3. Let’s talk warm nose.  Does it exist?  YES.  Someone in the main thread said NE Georgia was out of the snow.  I agree.  This is climatology.  Even parts of the favored escarpment areas will see sleet for a time being Sunday morning.  What is confusing the models is the isothermal layer in the soundings. My eye sees the isothermal layer as a deep layer of snow, since dendrites will be falling into this isothermal layer. ALL MODELS say that even at 850mb temperature of 0.1 deg F this melts the flakes.  I just completely and utterly disagree.  In all my years of forecasting, deep isothermal layers that hover on the 0 deg isotherm (and are below freezing either side of this layer) tend to run as all snow. Watch for this in the next 24 hours.

4. Do we need to cut down snow amounts?  Maybe. But don’t forget we are using a 7:1 ratio anyway to start with (see my post from yesterday).  So instead of 2.50” of liquid coming out to 17.5” of cement, maybe we go 2.00” of liquid and 14” of snow.   I’m currently most comfortable going with a range of 8-12” for KAVL and the eastern escarpment.  Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose.  So instead of 17” there, I think 8-12” also applies to them.

Hang in there folks.  Watch the 00Z trends.  Can’t ignore the intense dynamics and the fire hose that is our deep tropical moisture connection!

Supposedly I’m out of reactions for the day, but THANK YOU! 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Good evening everyone.  I wanted to take a moment and give y’all an update in light of the disastrous communications issue that is unfolding before our eyes.

1. Overall things have NOT changed that much since this time yesterday.  Euro came in with a swath of 20”+ from KAVL to KTNB and consistent liquid equivalents around 2.50”.  Duly noted is that the Euro was NOT mentioned in the afternoon discussion by GSP.   It has been absolutely rock solid on this storm system since last Saturday!  To boot, we added the CMC model today with a lot of liquid equivalent, too.  And now the 18Z FV3 (which we should all be looking at since it IS our future!), comes in with at least 2.00” of liquid (minimum QPF in Bristol, TN but that is expected given the setup).

2. 12Z NAM was a dumpster fire and has since corrected itself at 18Z (more corrections coming too, I suspect).  12Z GFS was a dumpster fire (just ridiculously low QPF) and p-type issues abound.  Yet, this is the model of choice today by GSP.  Oh but wait there’s more!  18Z GFS self-corrected and came in with more QPF and colder wedging solution.  You want to hang your hat on the GFS?  Better be ready to make more changes to the snowfall forecast as the GFS shifts.

3. Let’s talk warm nose.  Does it exist?  YES.  Someone in the main thread said NE Georgia was out of the snow.  I agree.  This is climatology.  Even parts of the favored escarpment areas will see sleet for a time being Sunday morning.  What is confusing the models is the isothermal layer in the soundings. My eye sees the isothermal layer as a deep layer of snow, since dendrites will be falling into this isothermal layer. ALL MODELS say that even at 850mb temperature of 0.1 deg F this melts the flakes.  I just completely and utterly disagree.  In all my years of forecasting, deep isothermal layers that hover on the 0 deg isotherm (and are below freezing either side of this layer) tend to run as all snow. Watch for this in the next 24 hours.

4. Do we need to cut down snow amounts?  Maybe. But don’t forget we are using a 7:1 ratio anyway to start with (see my post from yesterday).  So instead of 2.50” of liquid coming out to 17.5” of cement, maybe we go 2.00” of liquid and 14” of snow.   I’m currently most comfortable going with a range of 8-12” for KAVL and the eastern escarpment.  Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose.  So instead of 17” there, I think 8-12” also applies to them.

Hang in there folks.  Watch the 00Z trends.  Can’t ignore the intense dynamics and the fire hose that is our deep tropical moisture connection!

Once again, knocked it out of the park!

[Boonelight]

19 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Good evening everyone.  I wanted to take a moment and give y’all an update in light of the disastrous communications issue that is unfolding before our eyes.

1. Overall things have NOT changed that much since this time yesterday.  Euro came in with a swath of 20”+ from KAVL to KTNB and consistent liquid equivalents around 2.50”.  Duly noted is that the Euro was NOT mentioned in the afternoon discussion by GSP.   It has been absolutely rock solid on this storm system since last Saturday!  To boot, we added the CMC model today with a lot of liquid equivalent, too.  And now the 18Z FV3 (which we should all be looking at since it IS our future!), comes in with at least 2.00” of liquid (minimum QPF in Bristol, TN but that is expected given the setup).

2. 12Z NAM was a dumpster fire and has since corrected itself at 18Z (more corrections coming too, I suspect).  12Z GFS was a dumpster fire (just ridiculously low QPF) and p-type issues abound.  Yet, this is the model of choice today by GSP.  Oh but wait there’s more!  18Z GFS self-corrected and came in with more QPF and colder wedging solution.  You want to hang your hat on the GFS?  Better be ready to make more changes to the snowfall forecast as the GFS shifts.

3. Let’s talk warm nose.  Does it exist?  YES.  Someone in the main thread said NE Georgia was out of the snow.  I agree.  This is climatology.  Even parts of the favored escarpment areas will see sleet for a time being Sunday morning.  What is confusing the models is the isothermal layer in the soundings. My eye sees the isothermal layer as a deep layer of snow, since dendrites will be falling into this isothermal layer. ALL MODELS say that even at 850mb temperature of 0.1 deg F this melts the flakes.  I just completely and utterly disagree.  In all my years of forecasting, deep isothermal layers that hover on the 0 deg isotherm (and are below freezing either side of this layer) tend to run as all snow. Watch for this in the next 24 hours.

4. Do we need to cut down snow amounts?  Maybe. But don’t forget we are using a 7:1 ratio anyway to start with (see my post from yesterday).  So instead of 2.50” of liquid coming out to 17.5” of cement, maybe we go 2.00” of liquid and 14” of snow.   I’m currently most comfortable going with a range of 8-12” for KAVL and the eastern escarpment.  Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose.  So instead of 17” there, I think 8-12” also applies to them.

Hang in there folks.  Watch the 00Z trends.  Can’t ignore the intense dynamics and the fire hose that is our deep tropical moisture connection!

Great information man, and I definitely appreciate it. I’m fairly new in Boone, and as much as I’d love to get 17” here, I’ll take the 8-12” and be happy. @AsheCounty48 warned about possible sleet earlier too.  I’ve spent the last 20 years in Columbia, so it’s definitely an improvement!

[BretWx]

The weather channel just mentioned the blizzard of 1886, referencing Asheville, and even pulled the map up and said “history does repeat itself”.... lol 

[FlatLander48]

18z FV3 GFS out here throwing close to 30 inch totals again

[Tyler Penland]

Holy hell the 18z fv3 is juiced up.

[Tyler Penland]

Wowzers.

[HurricaneTracker]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Holy hell the 18z fv3 is juiced up.

Finally looks like Euro

[BooneWX]

I just don’t know what to make of the FV3....I mean it’s supposed to be the new GFS in a few months, but I mean...30 inches. I hope so, but dang that’s hard to buy. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Finally looks like Euro

So do we toss GSP? Lol.