BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, HurricaneTracker said: They based it off of the lower QPF values from the GFS. Didn't even look at or mention the Euro. Didn't mention the Euro but changed their entire forecast based off the 1 model that won't outlive the snow mounds in the local Wal-Mart parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Yea, even up into Boone. Ah ok. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 “"Snow" totals have declined by a few inches over the northern GA/SC zones and in the more western NC mtns, as more of the QPF is now expected to fall as sleet.” From GSP...what??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: “"Snow" totals have declined by a few inches over the northern GA/SC zones and in the more western NC mtns, as more of the QPF is now expected to fall as sleet.” From GSP...what??? What gets me is that Charlotte is still sitting at 10 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BretWheatley said: What gets me is that Charlotte is still sitting at 10 inches.... More than Mt. Mitchell. Lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: More than Mt. Mitchell. Lol.... Yeah, I got nothing for that one... lmao. Was not expecting that. Makes me feel more sane for feeling sort of bummed at this morning's NAM. Hell, they went ALL IN on one warm model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 WSW up - WTF at the below... 1-8 inches. I need a beer, ASAP. * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 8 inches are possible. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Really not liking how long it takes precip to get to the northern mountains, may be able to make breakfast Sunday morning before it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BretWheatley said: WSW up - WTF at the below... 1-8 inches. I need a beer, ASAP. * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 8 inches are possible. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are also possible. and they gave no nod to the FV3 (which has liquid to > 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just for s***s and giggles, I superimposed the NWS Blacksburg's totals to align with where it meets GSP's. Somebody is way off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Maybe the Nam is on to something, Icon isn't great for snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 When the Euro is showing 20-30 inches less than 48 hours out... I listen. Edit: Sorry, just really annoyed that the triad mentions getting 10 inches and we... well, lol. * WHAT...Significant accumulations of snow combined with sleet and freezing rain is expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches combined with ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. The greatest snow amounts are likely to be in the Triad, where amounts could approach 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Really not liking how long it takes precip to get to the northern mountains, may be able to make breakfast Sunday morning before it starts. Yeah. We always have to wait when systems come in from the south and southwest. Sometimes it seems like forever for it to start. But the SW mountains cut off before we do so I guess it works out in the end. I remember last Dec. storm, Rainforest had about three inches before I had my first flake. Me and you were getting pissed. We might get some snow but the idea of this being a "generational" event is ridiculous. But since I'm old enough to cover several generations I might be expecting too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoJoe said: Yeah. We always have to wait when systems come in from the south and southwest. Sometimes it seems like forever for it to start. But the SW mountains cut off before we do so I guess it works out in the end. I remember last Dec. storm, Rainforest had about three inches before I had my first flake. Me and you were getting pissed. We might get some snow but the idea of this being a "generational" event is ridiculous. But since I'm old enough to cover several generations I might be expecting too much. I don't want to even think about last year I was so mad. Lol idk what to think anymore about this storm, everything was consistent for a week and now it's getting wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 When freaking Blacksburg has us getting over a foot, and it’s 48+ hours out, it’s probably going to be a big event. They are conservative to say the least, though that’s not always unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 After 8 years of lurking here this always happens we always loose the storm if it still looks like this tommrow i would be concerned just my 2 cent carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 WTH is GSP doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If GSP is expecting ice to cut into our snowfall accumulations, how was this map generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, SnoJoe said: If GSP is expecting ice to cut into our snowfall accumulations, how was this map generated? They said they're expecting sleet to cut our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: WTH is GSP doing? This is the most insane map I’ve ever seen... lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18Z GFS is pretty nice improvement. Over 9 inches in AVL so far with some sleet/ice on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: They said they're expecting sleet to cut our totals. And ice. From the WSW... WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 8 inches are possible. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are also possible. The most I see on that map in WNC is .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: 18Z GFS is pretty nice improvement. Over 9 inches in AVL so far with some sleet/ice on top Great. That just means more GSP waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: This is the most insane map I’ve ever seen... lmfao That explains it. They didn't have enough time to look at the Euro because they spent all afternoon using MS Paint to make this catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z GFS looks like 10-15 for me down here. However, now expecting 1 inch. Time for a beer. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Can GSP issue an emergency interim discussion after that 18Z suite of the GFS, NAM, and CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Maybe GSP thought it would be fun to bust 1 year after they did last year. They never did catch up last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Maybe GSP thought it would be fun to bust 1 year after they did last year. They never did catch up last year. less than a 50% chance of 1in woke up to 9 december 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Maybe GSP thought it would be fun to bust 1 year after they did last year. They never did catch up last year. They play catch up all the time. Amateurs on this board write up better discussions and put out better call maps than them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I have to say, in my 30+ years of tracking storms here in WNC, this one really has me baffled and apparently the the NWS as well. To see the two snow total maps they have put out today is just stunning. I have a lot of respect for the folks at GSP and they know a heck of a lot more than I do weather wise, but I’m really perplexed by the this evenings maps and warnings. Still have a hard time believing that some areas of the Piedmont smoke the mountains in snow totals out of this system. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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