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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

Tyler Penland

By Tyler Penland,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Well I know the entire sub forum will be glad to have you back for this one.

Thank you Ashe! I will be glad to get back. I went on a journey and I succeeded but sometimes you must come back home. Yall have done an excellent job in here and look forward to brining it big time this winter.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

No automatic alt text available.

Just popped up on my facebook that someone shared. People are going nuts. Rightfully so I guess, but basing everything off of an automated forecast is a recipe for disaster.

That is when this forum and this thread shines.  We are prone to getting at least a one foot storm a season. We are level headed and not to easy to jump off the cliff or onto some bizarre forecast.  

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Here ya go folks! 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday: Still expecting a potentially significant
winter storm starting Saturday and possibly continuing into Monday.
However, the models continue to waffle a bit on the details. The
latest forecast blends the 12z ECMWF and GFS, which have both
trended a little south with the sfc low track across the Gulf
Coast/Deep South, resulting in slightly colder thicknesses. The 12z
guidance has generally trended upward on QPF, as has WPC. This looks
like a fairly heavy QPF event, if trends hold. The WPC days 4-7
winter outlook now shows 70-90 percent chance of winter storm
warning criteria ice/snow accumulations across portions of the NC
mountains from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday, with additional amounts
likely from 12z Sunday to 12z Monday. One of the reasons the models
have trended wetter is that they show a strong secondary shortwave
that dives in behind the main southern stream wave on Monday. This
keeps a deformation zone over the area thru the day on Monday, with
thicknesses supporting mostly snow.

The set up still looks the same...a split flow regime across the
western CONUS with confluent flow and a northern stream trough in
the East. Sfc high pressure of 1032-1038 mb elongated east-west
across the Great Lakes supports classic/strong CAD. As the southern
stream wave ejects from the Four Corners region to the Southern
Plains, strong upglide and frontogenesis coupled with upper level
divergence should spread precip into the area sometime on Saturday.
The models continue to delay the onset a little with each run. The
brunt of the precip and strong CAD looks to be Saturday night thru
Sunday (again these times may slip further). The 12z ECMWF has a
very strong easterly jet on the north side of the low, resulting in
strong moisture transport. So this has a lot going for it, QPF-wise.
As for temperatures/thicknesses, it`s still so borderline with sfc
wetbulb temps and warm nose position and strength. Went with a
blend of 12Z ECMWF/GFS for the partial thickness nomogram technique.
Still looks like a wintry mix for much of the area, with possibly
heavy snow in the mountains and northern Foothills. Depending on the
strength of the CAD, Freezing rain could also be a bigger concern
across the Piedmont. Hopefully, things start converging on a
solution as we get closer to this weekend. But anyway, now is the
time to put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for
this upcoming and future potential winter storms.
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Let's not forget about the snow coming in tonight along the boarder.  WWA put into affect.  

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck,
and Waynesville
250 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of one to two inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...North Carolina mountain counties along the Tennessee
  border.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions from brief
  heavy snow showers and temperatures falling into the teens and
  lower 20s. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute.
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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

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Posted
Let's not forget about the snow coming in tonight along the boarder.  WWA put into affect. 
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck,and Waynesville250 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.* WHERE...North Carolina mountain counties along the Tennessee border.* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions from brief heavy snow showers and temperatures falling into the teens and lower 20s. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Had a nice coat on the car this morning. Certainly gonna do better than that tonight.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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cold air aloft

cold air aloft

Posted
Posted

Like Met mentioned, I'm looking forward to tonight's mini-event. My neck of the woods usually doesn't fare too well with NW flow events, but some of us look to have a good night.

Heck, I was pleasantly surprised this morning. Went out to walk my dog around 6 am to find the ground covered with a dusting of snow and a few flakes still flying. Wasn't expecting that at all. Nice start to Winter!

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, cold air aloft said:

Like Met mentioned, I'm looking forward to tonight's mini-event. My neck of the woods usually doesn't fare too well with NW flow events, but some of us look to have a good night.

Heck, I was pleasantly surprised this morning. Went out to walk my dog around 6 am to find the ground covered with a dusting of snow and a few flakes still flying. Wasn't expecting that at all. Nice start to Winter!

Yeah Maggie is on or off with NW flow. The flow has to be just right for yall to get a good bit. You will do very well this weekend. 

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McDowell_Weather

McDowell_Weather

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Any ideas about the winds w/ this weekend’s system? 

To add, Jason on WLOS said we can expect a “solid 6-10 inches with many places over a foot” ... 

Im anxious to find out with heavy enough rates you dont need to much wind just a breez can cause whiteout conditions i sure would love to experience blizzard conditions imby without having to ride to roan mtn

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

For some if the old timers on the board Robert (Foothills) says their are some details as usual to get worked out but........This one has the potential to be truly historic for the Mnt. region!

Yeah this could be a special event. Shoot they are all special but yeah this is a chance to be very high in the QPF category. 

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted
GSP seems to think it will only be all snow Sunday night. Leads me to believe we'll have temp issues here. We might be a little to far away from the CAD region. Anyhow, we'll see how it shakes out. Hope everyone sees something wintry. Looks like a nice little tease tonight before the bigger event this weekend. 
 
 
 
Saturday
A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 3pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 7pm, then snow between 7pm and 2am, then snow and freezing rain after 2am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow and sleet likely before 11am, then rain and sleet likely between 11am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:
GSP seems to think it will only be all snow Sunday night. Leads me to believe we'll have temp issues here. We might be a little to far away from the CAD region. Anyhow, we'll see how it shakes out. Hope everyone sees something wintry. Looks like a nice little tease tonight before the bigger event this weekend. 
 
 
 
Saturday
A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 3pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 7pm, then snow between 7pm and 2am, then snow and freezing rain after 2am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow and sleet likely before 11am, then rain and sleet likely between 11am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Joe I wouldn't bother with the PC forecast currently because we are several days away and the system is just now entering California. 

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Moonhowl

Moonhowl

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Any ideas about the winds w/ this weekend’s system? 

To add, Jason on WLOS said we can expect a “solid 6-10 inches with many places over a foot” ... 

Jason just showed a map indicating 18" in Asheville.  Surprised to see this after he wasn't on board with the last two significant snowfalls.  Maybe he is slapping the jinx on it.

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BretWx

BretWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Moonhowl said:

Jason showed a map indicating 18" in Asheville.  Surprised to see this after he wasn't on board with the last two significant snowfalls.  Maybe he is slapping the jinx on it.

Yeah I just saw they updated the map to show the 18”... Ingles should be fun from now until then... 

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:
GSP seems to think it will only be all snow Sunday night. Leads me to believe we'll have temp issues here. We might be a little to far away from the CAD region. Anyhow, we'll see how it shakes out. Hope everyone sees something wintry. Looks like a nice little tease tonight before the bigger event this weekend. 
 
 
 
Saturday
A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 3pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 7pm, then snow between 7pm and 2am, then snow and freezing rain after 2am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow and sleet likely before 11am, then rain and sleet likely between 11am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Joe, I expect this forecast to be fine tuned many times before the event. At this point GSP is covering all the bases. I hope you've made a Woodfin run or are able to in short order. If I didn't have to work so damn much I'd be hitting you up for room and board during the event!!! Highly likely you will be giddy as a schoolgirl on a first date for this one!

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted
Jason just showed a map indicating 18" in Asheville.  Surprised to see this after he wasn't on board with the last two significant snowfalls.  Maybe he is slapping the jinx on it.

Straight up gfs run for Jason. He did not show any other models. But same as you, surprised he dropped that tonight.

 

 

.

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


Straight up gfs run for Jason. I did not show any other models. But same as you, surprised he dropped that tonight.


.

I have grown to like Jason... not just because he has my name. I think he really does try to get it right. He is probably a little conservative, but when someone does 41 minutes on Facebook explaining everything, they are pretty decent in my book.   

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted
I have grown to like Jason... not just because he has my name. I think he really does try to get it right. He is probably a little conservative, but when someone does 41 minutes on Facebook explaining everything, they are pretty decent in my book.   

Same here. He has grown on me over the last few years. Good dude!


.
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