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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Not going to lie, I'm still not buying the numbers, in terms of snowfall. temp profiles are close enough and are fluctuating enough even for us that things can change in a hurry. I did make an initial "snapchat" forecast with 6 to 8 for the storm, but I'm not budging from that til 2 days out, maybe 3, once we get the NAM and other short range models on board.

Yall are Golden up there. The moisture is there for the hefty totals. Models are emphatic and the pattern at h5 screams what they are suggesting as an end result. They only way to screw the pooch on this one is thermal profiles. And Id say Im highly confident up your way thats nothing to fret. 

But I UNDERSTAND CAUTIOUS OPTIMISIM. Life lessons chasing snow in the SE. With tonights appetizer and this weekends potential Historic Mauler on top of an active November, you guys could end up with an all time great this season from start to finish. LR forecast are out of this world for second half winter

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Um...this latest GFS run was incredible.  And VERY VERY wet!!  CAD wedge was intense.  Throw out the snow maps because they are useless at this range...but focus on the QPF.  MANY AREAS ARE WELL OVER 2.00" of liquid and there is a good portion of the mountains nearing 3.00" of liquid.  You do the math...

If this continues to be the forecast...y'all better start preparing.  Get your winter kits set up and stocked.  And your chainsaws ready.

gfs_qpf_120418.PNG

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5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Um...this latest GFS run was incredible.  And VERY VERY wet!!  CAD wedge was intense.  Throw out the snow maps because they are useless at this range...but focus on the QPF.  MANY AREAS ARE WELL OVER 2.00" of liquid and there is a good portion of the mountains nearing 3.00" of liquid.  You do the math...

If this continues to be the forecast...y'all better start preparing.  Get your winter kits set up and stocked.  And your chainsaws ready.

gfs_qpf_120418.PNG

That is incredible. Absolutely incredible.

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster.

After this run, I'm glad I pulled the trigger on getting a generator this morning. 

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4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster.

Yep, already warning my parents as they have an infant at the house to get out of Ashe.

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12 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster.

I'll be splitting firewood this afternoon; now how many times is said that firewood warms you...

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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Yea, um, about that tendency to for over-suppression.

All in all, we're sitting pretty no matter which model you look at.

I know I'm excited. Never before have I told friends that my first forecast would be 6-8 inches, and have that be conservative lol. there's still some cards on the table, like the CMC still showing the miller B changeover, but regardless we still get hit good.

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5 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

At this stage it’s hard not to get excited about this potential. 

For us (not everyone else in the main forum, just us) We're running out of ways quickly that this thing could go bust. Been almost a week since a model showed anything up or west of the Apps besides the Miller B's, and suppression is not a concern. Unless this makes a last minute straight north jog from Texas, I think we are in for a good one.

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