jburns Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Per the FV3, the Southern Escarpment is going to be the bullseye. Especially when you factor in some upslope potential. Could be historic. Enjoy it while you can boys. I still like snow but age can put a different turn on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS mean still a good storm. One thing we won't be lacking is moisture. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Boone and Asheville meteograms for those interested. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS mean still a good storm. One thing we won't be lacking is moisture. Sent from my SM-G960U using TapatalkThat’s look good. So much liquid. Hopefully more frozen then not... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I used to love GSP's LT disco's like this one when I lived in Weaverville! Some will be disappointed but some are going to cash big time unless there is a dramatic change with this set up. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast from the 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a little slower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier in QPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfc low track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru the event. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of a mixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runs suggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partial thickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot of snow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, but if the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lot lower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it still looks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of the mountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south of I-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday, as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold air damming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc high builds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest precip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but that time may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps will be tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too warm within the heart of the CAD wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I used to love GSP's LT disco's like this one when I lived in Weaverville! Some will be disappointed but some are going to cash big time unless there is a dramatic change with this set up..LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast fromthe 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a littleslower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier inQPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfclow track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru theevent. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of amixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runssuggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partialthickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot ofsnow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, butif the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lotlower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it stilllooks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of themountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south ofI-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday,as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold airdamming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc highbuilds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviestprecip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but thattime may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps willbe tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be toowarm within the heart of the CAD wedge.I like this quote from the AFD“I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too warm within the heart of the CAD” I’m here in the lee laying in wait... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Getting flurries here at 4650 on Beech Mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Getting flurries here at 4650 on Beech Mtn. Same here. Old timers say that if you get flurries on a Monday, you'll get a monster gulf low snow storm on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Same here. Old timers say that if you get flurries on a Monday, you'll get a monster gulf low snow storm on Saturday. Just enough time for Woodfin priorities!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoJoe said: Same here. Old timers say that if you get flurries on a Monday, you'll get a monster gulf low snow storm on Saturday. Lol...I like it. I did hear thunder 2 days ago....while in GA. So game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Done lost our coach today. Lets not loose the weekend bomb. Had a big snow about this same time last year. Mtns should get some more snow showers tomorow night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 0z euro is a monster . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it! 421 should be okay as you travel off I77. However, depending not he depth of this storm, the counties 421 runs through might have a time keeping up with the totals that "could" fall. The sooner she gets down the better on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So, the last several snowstorms, me, HT, Moonhowl, Hunter, Fritschy/Tacoma and others in the AVL area all have had good snow totals no matter what was forecast, no matter whether the models were showing us being dry slotted, or precip reduced by being in the valley or not. But, there was a stretch in the 90's where Asheville got dry slotted on EVERY snowstorm. It would start snowing hard and then just cut off like someone had put a ceiling on the sky. I mention this because the GFS and to a certain extent the FV3 are showing AVL being dry slotted or precip being drastically reduced because of the valley effect. The Euro does not show this, thankfully. We have had a solid year of over performing precipitation events. But, it is disconcerting to see that being shown to such an extreme. It is just Tuesday and I will take having the Euro on our sides. But, if we get deluged with 70 inches of rain all year and then get an under performing snowstorm that hammers everyone else, annoyed would not be a strong enough word. So, anyway, there is still a long way to go. There will be a thousand changes, but just something else to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 56 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it! I would want to arrive before sunset Saturday, though an hour or two after sunset would probably be ok. Timing isn't nailed down yet, but the heavier stuff seems to start Saturday night through Sunday and possibly the first half of Monday. There are bridges and significant elevation gain between Wilkesboro and Boone (the last 45 minutes of the drive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro and FV3-GFS both still show a sizable storm. I don't recall ever seeing this much agreement in modeling this far out, up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 59 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 421 should be okay as you travel off I77. However, depending not he depth of this storm, the counties 421 runs through might have a time keeping up with the totals that "could" fall. The sooner she gets down the better on Saturday. 26 minutes ago, BMulkey said: I would want to arrive before sunset Saturday, though an hour or two after sunset would probably be ok. Timing isn't nailed down yet, but the heavier stuff seems to start Saturday night through Sunday and possibly the first half of Monday. There are bridges and significant elevation gain between Wilkesboro and Boone (the last 45 minutes of the drive). Thanks a lot! Good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 31 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Euro and FV3-GFS both still show a sizable storm. I don't recall ever seeing this much agreement in modeling this far out, up until now. Probably just jinxed it by buying a small generator, but last year's storm gave us about 10 inches and we lost power for 2 days. Didn't have one then and it was a mistake... Oh well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just for fun, this is what it looked like here during last year's December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said: So, the last several snowstorms, me, HT, Moonhowl, Hunter, Fritschy/Tacoma and others in the AVL area all have had good snow totals no matter what was forecast, no matter whether the models were showing us being dry slotted, or precip reduced by being in the valley or not. But, there was a stretch in the 90's where Asheville got dry slotted on EVERY snowstorm. It would start snowing hard and then just cut off like someone had put a ceiling on the sky. I mention this because the GFS and to a certain extent the FV3 are showing AVL being dry slotted or precip being drastically reduced because of the valley effect. The Euro does not show this, thankfully. We have had a solid year of over performing precipitation events. But, it is disconcerting to see that being shown to such an extreme. It is just Tuesday and I will take having the Euro on our sides. But, if we get deluged with 70 inches of rain all year and then get an under performing snowstorm that hammers everyone else, annoyed would not be a strong enough word. So, anyway, there is still a long way to go. There will be a thousand changes, but just something else to watch. This particular storm we are watching does not seem to favor a dry slot (at the moment). It is a classic overrunning situation with warm moist air being thrown back into the CAD wedge (which is very likely underdone on GFS). Then as the the low gets going off the coast we get the 2nd punch. We really need to be focusing on the QPF from each model at this point rather than if it is showing snow/ice/sleet, etc. Those details will work themselves out in due course. But...needless to say the liquid equivalent of whatever falls is unlike anything we have seen since December 2009 event that crushed the mountains (and I personally had no electricity for 5 consecutive days). Perhaps a bit too early to discuss impacts as everyone is wowed with the clown maps, but our infrastructure simply cannot handle 20-30" of paste snow. More to come on that later this week. For now, watch the QPF and watch the signals in the SKEW-T's for a deep isothermal layer between the surface and 850mb. That's our classic heavy wet paste snow signal around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it! Sounds like you've gotten some good info but wanted to add a couple things. Your family is driving into the most prepared region in the South for handling winter weather & winter road maintenance. That being said it is probably nothing like you're used to in Central PA. If the snow, IP, ZR, comes in hard the roads pay the price of not enough equipment or manpower to keep up. Your family is also coming into a region with many micro climates (wide variations of weather over short distances). Finally what kind of vehicle they are traveling in will be critical also ie: 4WD, AWD, FWD, RWD. The Mets @ GSP & RNK are some of the best in the NWS due to dealing with the areas wide variety of weather and their disco's should be watched closely. Boone is under the RNK watch but with a storm riding in from the SW you should get a great idea about timing from GSP. As has been pointed out the best advice, in the area they will be traveling, is to beat the storm in! Good luck & safe travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm over 4 years removed from Weaverville & reading a LT disco like this still gets me excited! Some of you guys are gonna be living the dream come the weekend! (Jason i agree with HT, I see no reason why the Asheville crew would get dry slotted with this one) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM Tuesday: Confidence continues to grow that a significant winter storm will impact portions of the forecast area beginning sometime Saturday and continuing in earnest Sunday and possibly evening Monday. However, the details this far out are still sketchy at best as any small changes in the track or strength of the storm system or parent sfc high pressure to the north could make the different be mostly a cold rain or significant ice/snow. The greatest confidence in significant ice/snow accumulations continues to be across the mountains and east facing foothills where WPC continues to advertise a 50-70 percent chance of winter storm warning level ice/snow accumulations. The latest forecast blends the EC and GFS, leaning towards the slower EC in line with neighboring offices and WPC. Now for the forecast details as they stand now. Zonal flow will continue into the extended time frame Friday with surface high pressure continue to exert its influence across the region into Saturday. The net result will be fair skies with reinforcing cool and dry air Friday night as air damming or a wedge sets up east of the mountains Friday night, which will likely persist through the weekend. This will set the stage for the potentially significant winter storm as wet bulb temperatures fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the FA Saturday. An amplified upper trough will push through the southern Plains states into the Deep South Friday into Saturday with an attendant sfc low pressure system riding the Gulf of Mexico coastline before moving off the Southeast coastline Sunday. The CAD and increasing clouds and precip Saturday into Sunday will lock in cold temps with lows only in the 20s to 30s and highs only in the 30s to low 40s this weekend. This scenario looks to favor mostly wintry precipitation and possibly mostly snow across the mountains with a mix bag of precipitation across the NC Piedmont with some combination of rain or mixed precipitation further south into the Upstate of SC and northeast GA. While its too early to get into precipitation type details, wouldn`t be surprised to see more wintry look to precip across the region near onset and towards the end with more rain or ice in between when the storm is closest and pushes warmer air at mid levels (aka warm nose) into the region. The heaviest precip currently looks to take place Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the wintry this weekend, model guidance shows some potential for significant snow on the backside of the storm late Sunday into Monday. Now is the time to put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for this and future potential winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Not going to lie, I'm still not buying the numbers, in terms of snowfall. temp profiles are close enough and are fluctuating enough even for us that things can change in a hurry. I did make an initial "snapchat" forecast with 6 to 8 for the storm, but I'm not budging from that til 2 days out, maybe 3, once we get the NAM and other short range models on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Seeing as how I'm 4 hours SE of the mountains, I only came here for one reason... No matter how much snow you get, stay safe and have fun guys! I wish you all the best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just for fun, here is the snow plume diagram for KAVL from the 12/04 06Z GFS. The mean is 12.01" of snow...low of zero, max > 30" (HA!). But just another tool to consider. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Just for fun, here is the snow plume diagram for KAVL from the 12/04 06Z GFS. The mean is 12.01" of snow...low of zero, max > 30" (HA!). But just another tool to consider. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html December 09 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Just for fun, here is the snow plume diagram for KAVL from the 12/04 06Z GFS. The mean is 12.01" of snow...low of zero, max > 30" (HA!). But just another tool to consider. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html What is the blue line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: What is the blue line? Blue line is the operational (control) run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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