strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Mean up over 9” for KAVL on the 12z EPS. Got a link for this? Thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, Hvward said: Mean up over 9” for KAVL on the 12z EPS. Got numbers for boone? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just eyeing it from the weatherbell model, the charts should be out around 4:30. Boone avg looks to be around 10” or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Dont forget Franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said: I’ll just leave this here. This would definitely be a bucket list snow for me here in the NE GA mountains. This is the stuff dreams are made of. I know this is almost certainly not going to happen in my lifetime but man is it pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Boone EPS. Pretty big differences in timing which is interesting to me. Mean just under 10". Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Dont forget Franklin If this setup stays consistent, southern upslope areas will take. From Franklin, Highlands to Hendersonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 A little concerned about too much suppression for those of us in the northern mountains. Trends are definitely in the favor of SW NC imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: A little concerned about too much suppression for those of us in the northern mountains. Trends are definitely in the favor of SW NC imo. You just killed AsheCounty48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Hey guys!, Just wanted to jump in and say.....raise those eyebrows. This has the makings of a Mountain special. It will be interesting to watch the placement of the key players as time progresses. Right now it looks like the typical set up for big Southern low snow. I will be bumping in with some thoughts periodically. If I was most of you I'd be pretty excited to track this. As always there is the bust potential but someone should cash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: A little concerned about too much suppression for those of us in the northern mountains. Trends are definitely in the favor of SW NC imo. Synoptics & climo might argue against this. I'd be really leery of a cold rain in the Hayesville, Murphy area. Maybe even a rain to snow event in the Franklin area (elevation dependent in the SW). Central & Northern Mountains could get clobbered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 38 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: If this setup stays consistent, southern upslope areas will take. From Franklin, Highlands to Hendersonville. It would be nice to kick off the season well on the plus side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Having a hard time believing that suppression will be an issue this early in December. I’ve seen crazier things though. Suppression will obviously hurt us NW folks vs you guys in SW mtns. Also, here’s a link to check out some awesome aerial footage from the big ASU win yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 A little concerned about too much suppression for those of us in the northern mountains. Trends are definitely in the favor of SW NC imo.If I had a nickel for every time I heard that... These storms almost always come NW as we get closer. Don't worry. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Having a hard time believing that suppression will be an issue this early in December. I’ve seen crazier things though. Suppression will obviously hurt us NW folks vs you guys in SW mtns. Also, here’s a link to check out some awesome aerial footage from the big ASU win yesterday. Awesome job man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 38 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: If I had a nickel for every time I heard that... These storms almost always come NW as we get closer. Don't worry. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk And even if for whatever reason it didn't it's December 9th or whatever date it does hit. We should all be glad we have a storm of this potential magnitude this early in the season. It's going to be a long season, and everyone is going to get their share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We saw a drone during the game and I told those folks thats that air nelson guy I bet. Went through whole spill explaining who you are. Thanks for sharing and recharge for next weekends snow. You do an awesome job and really enjoy your work. Looking forward to tracking this storm. Hope it ends up being a Murphy To Manteo crusher for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We saw a drone during the game and I told those folks thats that air nelson guy I bet. Went through whole spill explaining who you are. Thanks for sharing and recharge for next weekends snow. You do an awesome job and really enjoy your work. Looking forward to tracking this storm. Hope it ends up being a Murphy To Manteo crusher for us all.Thanks man I appreciate it! I was glad we had a break in the weather to be able to get the shots. Caught it between the rain and the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro shows a day 7 3 footer. We can call this winter official. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Fellas i would be lying if i said i wasent excited lol As long as we dont start trending toward the cmc im good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Pretty darn exciting LT disco by GSP for this far out! .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely remain below normal. The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location of the low would support continued increasing clouds with precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day. Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC. Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this potentially significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Still looking good - kind of hard not to get hopes up. Of course, would love to have this look on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Also worth noting another extended period of flurries/showers for the mountain counties starting tonight. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Hard not to get excited I just saw the 6z GEFS and it had a mean of 5-10 inches through the mountains. that’s surprising still being 5-6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 well the 12z GFS was a shit show for the northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Don't get hung up on the details. The ingredients are there and that's what we have to look to with 5-6 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 No way that low track doesn't throw more moisture up this way. Stupid model. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3- GFS appears like it's going to be a monster for WNC (Southern Mnts especially). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Wow. Still not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Per the FV3, the Southern Escarpment is going to be the bullseye. Especially when you factor in some upslope potential. Could be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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