ncjoaquin Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Of course I get to move in to the new house in rain this weekend . Going to try to get most furniture in today after we close at lunch so all it is Saturday and Sunday is mainly boxes I have done that. It sucks. Hopefully, you hit a dry window. Congrats on the new house ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 53 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: I have done that. It sucks. Hopefully, you hit a dry window. Congrats on the new house ! Thanks, We will have help tomorrow and it’s not too far from driveway to door, so shouldn’t be too bad (knock on wood!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 Delayed spring seems to be the new normal. This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc. Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April. And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so. Incredible.Really hoping that delayed spring doesnt screw up the flowers again this year. It was a terrible photography season last spring with so much rain and so few blooms. Don't want to see that again for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 12z GFS says heavy precip switches to snow Tuesday night around WNC. It’s a long shot, but certainly still within the realm of possibilities. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I havent completely written off Wednesdays potential on some freezing rain sleet maybe some wet snow at onset. Especially if that hp to our north is in NY and a tick stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z GFS says heavy precip switches to snow Tuesday night around WNC. It’s a long shot, but certainly still within the realm of possibilities. I was just looking at that hopefully it will trend more toward the fv3 its been consistent with something wintry in that time-frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z GFS says heavy precip switches to snow Tuesday night around WNC. It’s a long shot, but certainly still within the realm of possibilities. While I would like the snow, accumulating snow followed by heavy rains the next few days after would just add fuel to the already potent flood danger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 12z Euro moves towards the 12z GFS. Wedge is stronger and surface temps are 5 degrees lower this run at @KAVL when heavy precip moves in. Euro also brings in precip later compared to the 0z run and that allows the wedge to build. This one is far from over. Will be interesting to see the EPS. Focus on the evolution of the overall pattern right now, not snowfall maps. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 21 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said: Delayed spring seems to be the new normal. This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc. Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April. And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so. Incredible. Yeah the wet pattern looks to stay around. Probably a miserable start to spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I know anything other than frozen precip gets crickets on this group, but check out these 15 day precip totals for Blairsville, GA from the 06Z GEFS. Could be epic flooding..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Cheeznado said: I know anything other than frozen precip gets crickets on this group, but check out these 15 day precip totals for Blairsville, GA from the 06Z GEFS. Could be epic flooding..... That don't look good Seems like flooding is becoming so frequent we are getting numb to it; I think the City of Asheville is considering giving up on the soccer fields at Azalea Park because they are getting flooded so often. The big wet thread in summer of 2013 was pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Kind of surprised no one is talking about the last few runs of the gfs and FV3. Shows some good accumulation for some of us in the mountains before the changeover to freezing rain and then rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I know that Hunter said to disregard accumulation maps with this, but I looked anyway lol. 12z with ~6" and around 15" up towards Boone. That's some heavy precip moving in at that time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 This one is going to be a difficult one to forecast. Need the NAM 3km to get in range. Look like some sleet or ZR could be possible tomorrow night above 3500’ around Boone tomorrow night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, Hvward said: This one is going to be a difficult one to forecast. Need the NAM 3km to get in range. Look like some sleet or ZR could be possible tomorrow night above 3500’ around Boone tomorrow night as well. Is it possible the High can be stronger for the Tues/Wed system... the Euro and GFS have shown hints of it and the CMC today shows an ICE STORM in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12z Euro is all rain outside the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12z Euro is all rain outside the Mountains. Check out the soundings around KAVL on the 12z Euro. Small details but they will make a huge difference in WNC. A meso high develops in NNC and that allows a frozen column to be in place around 8pm Tuesday evening. To compare to the 0z Euro at 8pm Tuesday which had 4c at 850mb. The 12z is shown as 0c on weatherbell at KAVL at 8pm. That’s nearly a 7 degree F difference. With this much volatility, it’s hard to speak in any certainties, but yes the high pressure could come in higher than models are showing, and we could be seeing models realize that. Lots of options still on the table with accumulating snowfall being one of them for WNC Tuesday into Wednesday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hvward said: Check out the soundings around KAVL on the 12z Euro. Small details but they will make a huge difference in WNC. A meso high develops in NNC and that allows a frozen column to be in place around 8pm Tuesday evening. To compare to the 0z Euro at 8pm Tuesday which had 4c at 850mb. The 12z is shown as 0c on weatherbell at KAVL at 8pm. That’s nearly a 7 degree F difference. With this much volatility, it’s hard to speak in any certainties, but yes the high pressure could come in higher than models are showing, and we could be seeing models realize that. Lots of options still on the table with accumulating snowfall being one of them for WNC Tuesday into Wednesday. Excellent Post! Thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GEFS snowfall map on the increase.6z12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hvward said: GEFS snowfall map on the increase. 6z 12z . Starting to come back to what it was showing the other day maybe? We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I hope I am wrong...but just not seeing the cold air...I'd love one more nice snow-or maybe two..but IMO where is the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, WeatherHawk said: I hope I am wrong...but just not seeing the cold air...I'd love one more nice snow-or maybe two..but IMO where is the cold air? I agree, the high pressure is in a perfect spot and the strength is good. However, the source region is just not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 hours ago, Hvward said: GEFS snowfall map on the increase. 6z 12z . 18z GEFS improved again to right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GEFS improved again to right? Hoping for E-18 .... but knowing it will probably verify as E-9. On a brighter note, every ensemble from the 18z run of the GFS has accumulating snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Image isn't showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Image isn't showing... double-click the link and let me know if it doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: double-click the link and let me know if it doesn't work. Yeah, it doesnt show on my end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Hoping for E-18 .... but knowing it will probably verify as E-9. On a brighter note, every ensemble from the 18z run of the GFS has accumulating snow in the mountains. You are linking an attachment you have to be logged in to see. Others who are not logged into that site will not be able to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Disc said: You are linking an attachment you have to be logged in to see. Others who are not logged into that site will not be able to see it. Gotcha.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Any other way you guys can show the 18z GFS Ensemble mean to compare with 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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