BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Newest 3k NAM looks nasty as hell. Let’s hope it’s too cold. Sitting at 33/20 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 12z 3k NAM would be a mess along the escarpment assuming those qpf values verified. Worth noting it greatly overdid those areas last month and the cutoff on the other side wasn't nearly as significant as it modeled either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Newest 3k NAM looks nasty as hell. Let’s hope it’s too cold. Sitting at 33/20 now. It is too cold. Was off by 3-4 degrees too cold on min temps this morning. The low is also tracking 75-100 miles further north across the Midwest, giving Chicago 2-4" of snow (when their forecast was zero just last night). This means we here will see a more robust warm nose. Score one for the GFS - mostly non-event here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: It is too cold. Was off by 3-4 degrees too cold on min temps this morning. The low is also tracking 75-100 miles further north across the Midwest, giving Chicago 2-4" of snow (when their forecast was zero just last night). This means we here will see a more robust warm nose. Score one for the GFS - mostly non-event here in the mountains. Sounds good to me. I’d rather have that than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just had a few snow flakes fly by with a temp of 34.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Don't know if it can be believed but the last HRRR is a primarily snow event for Boone with some brief swaps to sleet/zr. Narrow zone of zr/ip in the southern mountains along the best CAD zones. Anybody know how it's handling thermals currently? I seem to recall it showing this before and failing miserably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just started raining here. Sounds like sleet is mixing in. Sitting at 33/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Now the HRRR is on board w/ all freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Now the HRRR is on board w/ all freezing rain. Yep each hrrr run is colder and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yep each hrrr run is colder and wetter Looks like it's quick hit and done though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Looks like it's quick hit and done though! .75-1 of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 ZR just started in Boone. Hope the roads hold up for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: ZR just started in Boone. Hope the roads hold up for a while. Thought we would start out as snow. Kinda surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 I've seen some sleet pellets and snowflakes mix in. Not much yet. Coming down decent at Walmart right now. Thought we would start out as snow. Kinda surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ZR has begun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Tyler Penland said: I've seen some sleet pellets and snowflakes mix in. Not much yet. Coming down decent at Walmart right now. Are you buying the HRRR at all? Keeps us as snow for a decent amount of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: ZR has begun here. 34/28 here in southwest Buncombe. All rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Not really. I think we'll go to sleet but I doubt snow for very long. Some spots north of town up towards lansing/whitetop probably have a better chance for staying snow longer. I expect most folks west of town to go to rain at some point too if Boone itself doesn't. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised by a few inches of white in the morning though. Are you buying the HRRR at all? Keeps us as snow for a decent amount of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Solid steady freezing rain at 4650 on Beech. Half inch of snow this morning is just about gone. Temp is 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Closest station near is reporting 32 - I’m near the highest elevation, about 2300’ - light glaze on things already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Mostly rain but some sleet here in Haywood. I'll pass on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 My driveway was already nearly impossible to walk on when I got home. Solid glaze on everything. Gonna be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Well, well, well. 32 degrees and freezing rain in Maggie Valley of all places. We were forecasted to reach 40 degrees today, but my thermometer never got above 33. I’m sure the warm nose will make it’s presence felt soon, but I’m kind of enjoying this novelty right now. It’s been several years since we’ve had ZR IMBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 30/27 with steady light ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32 freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32 and zr imby as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 This wedge means business folks. Just got home from Clemson. When I got off 85 it was 42 degrees, 33 and sleet in Marion now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 28 and zr/ip mix. Everything icing up solid now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 My automated rain gauge continues to measure the precipitation. This tells me it continues to be all rain here in southwest Buncombe. 32.3°, dew point 31. No more room left for evaporative cooling. Rain gauge at 0.08” and counting. Minimal to no ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: My automated rain gauge continues to measure the precipitation. This tells me it continues to be all rain here in southwest Buncombe. 32.3°, dew point 31. No more room left for evaporative cooling. Rain gauge at 0.08” and counting. Minimal to no ZR. 31 here in West Asheville. The deck and car is frozen. Nothing on any paved surfaces. Precip has been light so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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