Kilgore Trout Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 NWS hourly forecast has Asheville above freezing until 8 pm, BUT it currently states we should be at 35 degrees right now and we are at 40. No bueno. But it's going to be a long storm so I will just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: So it’s elevation dependent at the moment. Looks like 3000’+ is where you need to be to see snow. French Broad Valley just too warm at the moment. Low 40s! Supports rain as HRRR indicated. Problem is, HRRR keeps AVL all rain until 9pm. Further cuts snow totals. GSP afternoon update will be difficult to say the least. But really need to think about reducing totals...perhaps dramatically. They updated the warning shortly before 11 and increased totals here. But I am in a more favorable CAD area being east of the escarpment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Down to 35 here and coming down nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said: NWS hourly forecast has Asheville above freezing until 8 pm, BUT it currently states we should be at 35 degrees right now and we are at 40. No bueno. But it's going to be a long storm so I will just be patient. Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said: Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share. Hate to say it and you’ve seen it before but the French broad river valley is not the ideal place when it’s a CAD situation. The warmer air just tunnels down that valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said: Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share. 21 years here in Asheville, and yep, seen plenty of screw jobs. But reading the GSP forecast discussion and looking at the hourly forecast, they seem to account for this somewhat, and it won't be until tonight when the real action starts. Crossing my fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said: Uh oh. 3km NAM has 4-6 hours of sleet for Asheville overnight tonight, during the period of best forcing and maximum moisture. Bye bye snow totals. Time to sound the alarms. This is not an epic event or once in a generation event. Oh and 12Z NAM cuts QPF by 40-50% as well. Damn. sorry HT, just disappointed I guess, didn't won't to hear that, very let down, I do appreciate your input muchly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Hate to say it and you’ve seen it before but the French broad river valley is not the ideal place when it’s a CAD situation. The warmer air just tunnels down that valley. True, but we have overcome that many a storm to have higher totals than anybody else. So, your point is valid, but it is definitely not always the case. But, also, I guess we haven't prime time for when the snow was to be the best anyway. Hopefully, you, and us and everybody else cashes in eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HRRR still looking good, keeping the NAM on the back burner for this one. I would be more worried except for the fact it was absolutely atrocious out in the west, so I'm not weighing on it as much...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said: 21 years here in Asheville, and yep, seen plenty of screw jobs. But reading the GSP forecast discussion and looking at the hourly forecast, they seem to account for this somewhat, and it won't be until tonight when the real action starts. Crossing my fingers. Very true. I haven't given up hope yet. I got 54 years here in Asheville, lol, so I have seen so many different ways to get screwed, it would make most people blush. But, you make a great point. Patience is a good idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This looks good for everyone in our subforum. The only thing I don't like is how light the precip looks in the mountains, not sure how well upslope and topography reads on the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said: True, but we have overcome that many a storm to have higher totals than anybody else. So, your point is valid, but it is definitely not always the case. But, also, I guess we haven't prime time for when the snow was to be the best anyway. Hopefully, you, and us and everybody else cashes in eventually. Yes sir. Best of luck to everyone. Let’s bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just plain old rain down here in Old Fort. Trying to hold out some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 One thing to note, during the height of the precip, snow ratios on the NAM are around 12:1 for the mountains, just know that really hasn't been mentioned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, westmc9th said: Just plain old rain down here in Old Fort. Trying to hold out some hope Hold out hope? Old fort may jackpot. The snow was never forecasted to begin here until after dark. Patience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Hold out hope? Old fort may jackpot. The snow was never forecasted to begin here until after dark. Patience Patience is virtue not many possess during storms! Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, westmc9th said: Patience is virtue not many pos Truth!!! One I definitely don't possess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, westmc9th said: Patience is virtue not many possess during storms! Haha. Reminds me of last year when it took hours to get snow up to Boone and Ashe, learned my lesson for this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, westmc9th said: Patience is virtue not many possess during storms! Haha. Thought about heading up to my grandparents house at the foot of gateway. Thinking he may get raked up there. Plus he has wood stove! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Already a good dusting on everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BretWheatley said: Already a good dusting on everything here. Yeah. Really starting to add up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We have a bit of a mix here in Haywood. If this is going to be more of a CAD event then we are screwed in Haywood but this is only beginning so as posted above I'll take my dose of patience lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Drove out to the continental divide in Edneyville. 33 degrees and dumping. Seems AVL proper and north may fall victim to the French Broad River valley letting in too much warm air from Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HRRR aligns with reports we're seeing right now. Snow along southern escarpment, AVL and points north struggling to cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just not much moisture here it seems just yet. Flurries are all I've got going for the last half hour.Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Euro is bad news folks. It also has the dreaded warm nose all the way to Hickory. +1 at 700mb. Damn. AVL liquid on Euro is 1.90" and we lose some to sleet/rain. First run in 5 days to show reduced snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Euro is bad news folks. It also has the dreaded warm nose all the way to Hickory. +1 at 700mb. Damn. Warmest 700 mb frame. Foothills look ok, mtns not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Been mixing here for the past 30 minutes. Gradually seeing more snow. I'm a few miles South of downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12k NAM with 2 ft for Boone still at a 10:1 ratio....given ratios during the height will be higher than that. *As I mentioned earlier, still discounting the 12z Nam slightly altogether* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Euro is bad news folks. It also has the dreaded warm nose all the way to Hickory. +1 at 700mb. Damn. AVL liquid on Euro is 1.90" and we lose some to sleet/rain. First run in 5 days to show reduced snow amounts. Not good trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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