BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HT is a professional. Let's make sure not to discount his contributions simply because it's not what we want to here. I do want to remain hopeful however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 A few flakes this morning and that's about it. Temps on the rise from a low of 27.8 to 31.3 here. Looks like my call of 4 to 6 here is definitely in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 RAP and HRRR which are usually very toasty so no sign of a warm nose. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Ex-wife sent me this photo from 8 am in Glenville, NC.Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Pouring big white fatty’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Not sure if anyone saw the 6z RGEM, it's a beauty, especially for NW portions with snow going through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 2:45 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: HT is a professional. Let's make sure not to discount his contributions simply because it's not what we want to here. I do want to remain hopeful however. Expand Great post !!!! He definitely knows more than we know. We should be thankful whether it is good or negative information. I appreciate it either way. He can't just make it up to make us happy, lol. Keep it coming HT. PLUS, it is not like he controls it. If he did, we would all have 3 feet of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I have been thinking warm nose the entire time; per HT the gulf has nothing to do with the warm nose so I certainly have much to learn about the origin of the warmth of the warm nose. To be honest I don't mind the sleet because those snow totals were giving me falling tree anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just started snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 RGEM another huge run for NW parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 RGEM looks like NAM through 18 hours. Warm nose surging north on 50-60 knot low-level jet. edit - massive warm nose tomorrow at 7am on RGEM. Snow totals seriously in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Per the RGEM I barely stay all snow here. Caveat to that, heaviest precip is usually right along the transition line. Tight rope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Question becomes which short-term hi-res model is best? 3km NAM, HRRR, or RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:05 PM, HurricaneTracker said: RGEM looks like NAM through 18 hours. Warm nose surging north on 50-60 knot low-level jet. edit - massive warm nose tomorrow at 7am on RGEM. Snow totals seriously in question. Expand How much snow before the change over? Can we squeeze out 6 inches. Of course, sleet produces it's own problems. It definitely does not melt as quickly. Still would produce quite the winter mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:11 PM, HurricaneTracker said: Question becomes which short-term hi-res model is best? 3km NAM, HRRR, or RGEM? Expand Let the games begin. I know the setup is different, but wondering how they performed to the west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:11 PM, ncjoaquin said: How much snow before the change over? Can we squeeze out 6 inches. Of course, sleet produces it's own problems. It definitely does not melt as quickly. Still would produce quite the winter mess. Expand Yeah worst case road conditions would be a snow pack with a couple inches of sleet on top and a glaze of freezing rain as the cherry on top. Nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:13 PM, BretWheatley said: Let the games begin. I know the setup is different, but wondering how they performed to the west so far. Expand NAM has been horrific out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:14 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: NAM has been horrific out west. Expand And this needs to be watched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:11 PM, HurricaneTracker said: Question becomes which short-term hi-res model is best? 3km NAM, HRRR, or RGEM?I had read somewhere (maybe this site) that the HRRR is good with moisture, the NAM is good with temperature and the RGEM is good with airflow, does that still hold true? or is that just one viewpoint? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:16 PM, strongwxnc said: And this needs to be watched... Expand NAM has been horrible but the RGEM is showing the warm nose too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Ht is correct. That is a nasty warm nose. Let's hope those hi res models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 2:50 PM, LiQuiDBuD said: Ex-wife sent me this photo from 8 am in Glenville, NC. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Expand Where at In glenville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:20 PM, franklin NCwx said: Ht is correct. That is a nasty warm nose. Let's hope those hi res models are wrong. Expand We can hope but we are within 12-18 hours of the event. Doubt the models are wrong on this. That warm nose is as stout as the lower cold air wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The warm nose always been modeled for my area most of the week. However, Im pulling for some high totals for yall boys. With that said, like all SE systems, we still don't know $hit until game time. Crack a beer, and enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:14 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: NAM has been horrific out west. Expand Busting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:23 PM, strongwxnc said: The warm nose always been modeled for my area most of the week. However, Im pulling for some high totals for yall boys. With that said, like all SE systems, we still don't know $hit until game time. Crack a beer, and enjoy the ride! Expand Is it bad that I’ve already cracked one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Bee Tree Road On 12/8/2018 at 3:21 PM, franklin NCwx said: Where at In glenville?Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:24 PM, BretWheatley said: Busting? Expand Yes. Was way too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:26 PM, BretWheatley said: Is it bad that I’ve already cracked one? Cheers! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On 12/8/2018 at 3:27 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yes. Was way too far north Expand We will see. RGEM matched it. Now we wait to see if GFS has the warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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