FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 0z Nam is agonizing watching the moisture line be just to the south of Watauga for so many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 You got Namd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 New 3kNAM seems like there’s a chance of some thundersnow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 00Z NAM looks great for AVL to Boone! Much better wedge this run and substantial liquid QPF over 2.25". Mixing with sleet, if it happens, would be mid morning Sunday near tail end of the event....based on soundings analysis and not some silly colored algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just wanted to post MOB's thoughts on downstream convection and the "Fire Hose". NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...There are not a lot of changes from the previous forecast thinking. The primary forecast challenges continue to revolve around the upcoming heavy rain event and the associated potential for flooding impacts across our region, as well as on the potential for an isolated severe storm or two near the immediate coast Saturday into Saturday night. An upper level trough located near the vicinity of southwest Arizona and northern Baja this afternoon is forecast to translate eastward toward west Texas into Saturday morning, before lifting northeastward toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region through Saturday night. Surface low pressure will develop over southeast Texas tonight and track eastward, likely paralleling the immediate northern Gulf Coast through Saturday night. Deep moisture ahead of a shortwave trough translating over Lousiana and Mississippi will spread into northwestern portions of our area tonight, and we will carry a chance of rain over these zones, with the best chance mainly focused northwest of I-65. Short range model guidance remains in good agreement with bringing large scale ascent into our forecast area ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper level trough and surface low pressure system Saturday into Saturday night. The potential for locally heavier rainfall will spread into southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama Saturday morning, where likely to categorical POPs have been indicated between 6 AM and noon. Short range and available high resolution guidance then continues to indicate that heavy rain will spread across the remainder of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with potential QPF amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals possible across much of the region. Some short range and high resolution guidance continues to signal higher QPF amounts impacting portions of southwest/south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening, including locations that received very heavy rainfall last weekend. Given the saturated soils/antecedent conditions, we have opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for locations roughly south of a Mobile to Andalusia line for Saturday afternoon and evening. The severe weather potential otherwise continues to look very limited/marginal, and mainly across locations along the immediate coast where very weak instability may penetrate inland ahead of the approaching low pressure system, coincident with strong low level and deep layer shear. We will need to monitor for an isolated severe storm capable of damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the coast. A high risk of rip currents will exist along area Gulf beaches from Friday night through Sunday night. High surf, and minor coastal flooding will also be possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 That's a crazy run for the escarpment.. Over 2 feet in many places.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That's a crazy run for the escarpment.. Over 2 feet in many places.. Lines up perfectly with Euro and FV3. All models in excellent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: New 3kNAM seems like there’s a chance of some thundersnow... How are you determining this? What parameters/fields? Thunder snow is not usually done by upright convection (summer storms) but rather by slant wise convection which is hard to get model output on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HiRes NAM had a lot more mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: How are you determining this? What parameters/fields? Thunder snow is not usually done by upright convection (summer storms) but rather by slant wise convection which is hard to get model output on. Honestly was just eyeing it based on the upright coming through. Spoke too soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Ha. Mt Mitchell gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Honestly was just eyeing it based on the upright coming through. Spoke too soon! Not necessarily too soon. It can happen upright if it lines up just right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The 3.71in QPF mean is... wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 WeatherNC is chasing to Blowing Rock. I tried to give him a heads up about the park or somehwere over there with a sleigh ride hill. Sure his kid is in tow. So yall point him in right direction. Know I saw or read about several years ago totting my own clan up there for a visit. Just went on to sugar mtn instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: The 3.71in QPF mean is... wild! This includes heavy rain next Friday. And that’s a whole other issue. Flooding concerns go up dramatically next week as heavy rain falls on a deep and high liquid water content snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said: This includes heavy rain next Friday. And that’s a whole other issue. Flooding concerns go up dramatically next week as heavy rain falls on a deep and high liquid water content snowpack. Ah, crap! I should’ve noticed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Camped out here at 4650 on Beech. 29.3 currently with still 1-2 inches of snow on the ground from Wednesday. Just in the last hour a light breeze out of the east has started. DP is 26 currently. My location gets great wedge winds as I've clocked 50+ gusts twice this year from wedges. So the wedge is starting to develop just a bit. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Well, today’s the day. Just made a coffee and went out on the back porch and it’s lightly snowing. Sounds like a bit of sleet mixed in too maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Interesting spread in the latest warning from GSP: WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Most of the precipitation will be snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 18 inches are expected, with accumulations increasing from south to north and as elevation increases. Ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch are also expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Unf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Another busy day at work for me! I know there is a dedicated obs thread that you folks will want to use. Please post or re-post in this thread. The dedicated one is just to much for me me to wade thru. Good luck to all you folks with a special shout out to the old timers Joe, Jason, Mark, Thomas, & anyone else I forgot!, lots of pics and vids please! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The Canadian snowman looked good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Another busy day at work for me! I know there is a dedicated obs thread that you folks will want to use. Please post or re-post in this thread. The dedicated one is just to much for me me to wade thru. Good luck to all you folks with a special shout out to the old timers Joe, Jason, Mark, Thomas, & anyone else I forgot!, lots of pics and vids please! Game time is upon us here. High country puts some nice Wright Weather maps in the discussion thread a short while ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Here is the MOB morning disco. Gas meets fire for you guys upstream! .NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...A strong upper level shortwave will move eastward out of the southwest states today. An associated area of low pressure will move eastward along the coast this afternoon and evening with a warm front stretched eastward from the low along the coast. Ahead of the low, a strong low level jet of 50 to 60 knots is expected to develop and this will help bring an increase surge of Gulf moisture into the region by this afternoon. Precipitable water values are forecast to climb to near 1.9 inches just in advance of the low. The combination of the deep layer moisture and strong forcing downstream of the upper shortwave and sfc low will lead to development of heavy rain across the area primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Most areas can expect a general 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts before the rain exists the area late tonight. The severe weather potential continues to look very marginal and confined to areas along the immediate coast where weak instability may reach inland as the warm front moves north just ahead of the approaching low pressure system. We cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado or damaging wind gust due to the strong low level shear. However, the best potential for rotating storms will remain over the coastal waters. The primary threat will continue to be the potential for flash flooding in the watch area. In addition, rip currents and heavy surf can be expected at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible late this afternoon into tonight. There will be a very sharp temperature gradient along the warm front today with locations north of the warm front staying in the mid/ upper 40s and low 50s. Locations south of the warm front could reach into the upper 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions will also develop today, especially in areas south of the warm front along the coast where the higher momentum air aloft mix down to the surface. A wind advisory may be required later today. /13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hee haw lets get-er-done boys reel us in a big un lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Feel like looking at the weather while in a tree stand is a weird way to use time but ih well. Some encouraging runs for us northern guys. Let's see what happens. Time to really start watching the short range models. Todays the day boys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 37 and heavy rain when I went out about 630 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Kelly CassVerified account @kellycass 9m9 minutes ago We are tracking #WinterStormDiego on @AMHQ with live reports all day long. @ReynoldsWolf is in #Asheville expecting a big #snow event! Stay with @weatherchannel all day through tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Feel like looking at the weather while in a tree stand is a weird way to use time but ih well. Some encouraging runs for us northern guys. Let's see what happens. Time to really start watching the short range models. Todays the day boys. We used to come up and hunt on Nathan’s creek in Ashe county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Rainforrest said: We used to come up and on Nathan’s creek in Ashe county. I'm actually in that area right now, came home to take dad out to the woods before the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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