Tyler Penland Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM much wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: NAM much wetter. And substantially colder. Now aligns perfectly with Euro, FV3, and CMC. What worries me greatly is 55 knot winds at 850mb Sunday morning in the mountains. Exceptionally dangerous situation may be unfolding! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: And substantially colder. Now aligns perfectly with Euro, FV3, and CMC. What worries me greatly is 55 knot winds at 850mb Sunday morning in the mountains. Exceptionally dangerous situation may be unfolding! Dangerous is our middle name in the mountains. Bring it all at once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 34 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I'm back gang! Let's do this! Ok, so you came back to where you belong. Congrats? At least now I have somebody to explain this crap to me. Welcome home Brother. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Its warmer out this way than the fvs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On a serious note the winds with heavy wet snowfall will be a recipe for disaster with power outages and trees coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Its warmer out this way than the fvs and euro. This is probably correct. Intense warm nose by deep southerly fetch of moisture riding north on 50kt LLJ and you guys are almost always tucked away from the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Ok, so you came back to where you belong. Congrats? At least now I have somebody to explain this crap to me. Welcome home Brother. Yes this is where I belong for sure! Thank you Joe! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 36 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: This is probably correct. Intense warm nose by deep southerly fetch of moisture riding north on 50kt LLJ and you guys are almost always tucked away from the wedge. Yeah, cad doesn't usually work it's way west of the balsams or highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: WTH is GSP doing? I love GSP but they are taking a brutal beating on twitter for this map. I'm willing to bet this one may go into the closet, never to be seen again! On a more serious note I have concerns that some places (eastern facing & above 3500') may be close to blizzard conditions during the event at times. I really feel like you will see some different maps, forecasts overnight & especially tomorrow from the crew in Greer if things hold the way they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS looks pretty good for yall. Not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Oh Canada!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The GFS and the Canadian both came in with bigger totals from the balsam range west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I've been trying really hard to go to sleep, 0z runs prevented that. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I've been trying really hard to go to sleep, 0z runs prevented that. Wow. This season is turning into 2009-2010 . Gonna be wore out from tracking so much this season. Have yall stopped and thought its only 1st week of Dec and look how much has Already happened up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just woke up and checked the 00zs... beautiful. Edit: Also see the GEFS WPF mean is now over 3 inches... Getting better and better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Thanks for the map looks good 21 inches right over me and Morganton . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: Can’t sleep either...hurry and get your milk sandwiches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: Can’t sleep either...hurry and get your milk sandwiches . Does anyone have a ETA for this storm? Saturday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 And.... we’re back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Gfs control run appears to remain an outlier. Ensemble mean now 20+ inches in asheville 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Such a good look from everything right now. Someone’s getting 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Yup. The expected snowfall average out of Rutherford has jumped up to around 11" depending on location in county. Most cities were around 7" at the last update. As for GSP info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Would really love to see the Euro nail this one. Not being selfish, I swear. Hell, even the GFS is about a foot near Hendersonville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... .Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate to heavy precipitation will fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the region. Accumulations are expected to be greatest in western North Carolina. NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-071730- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.181208T1800Z-181210T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch expected. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the upper French Broad Valley to the Northern Mountains and Northern Foothills. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as Saturday evening, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during periods of heavy snow. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Nice!....giddy up!!! .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday: Confidence is high enough on significant snow/wintry precip in the heart of the expected cold air damming, that after collaboration with WFO RNK, portions of the watch have been upgraded to a winter storm warning. The rest of the watch will be left as is, as there is still some time to fine tune details. Overall, no big surprises in the 00z guidance. If anything, they`ve trended a little wetter. Adequate QPF for winter storm warning criteria accums is not an issue. The two biggest concerns are the evolution of a warm nose above the CAD, and the sfc-based warm layer around the periphery of the wedge. These will determine the p-type thru the event. I opted to take a 50/50 blend of the GFS/NAM profiles. The NAM has the much stronger warm nose, bringing it even into the central NC mountains for a time on Sunday. So precip should start expanding north and east across the forecast area during the day on Saturday. Thermal profiles suggest most of the precip will start out as rain, except in the central and northern mountains and adjacent foothills in NC. By early Saturday evening, CAD should be really strengthening across the Piedmont, as precip rates will be at their highest and the ~1036 mb parent high reaches PA. The wedge looks to advect enough cold/dry air to wet-bulb temps down into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the entire Piedmont by daybreak Sunday. This will be about the time the warm nose will punch in from the east, resulting in a wintry mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile, most of the I-40 corridor looks to remain all snow. The sfc low will track from the FL panhandle east to off the Georgia coast by Sunday aftn. The NAM has a dry air punching in from the southwest, which could cut off ice nuclei activation and turn snow/sleet to freezing rain/drizzle. However, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all seem to keep deeper moisture within a developing deformation zone thru Sunday night. For now, I keep ice nuclei active thru the event. This allows snow totals to continue to pile up. Finally, Sunday night thru Monday, as the sfc low deepens off the Carolina coast, cold air spills in behind the circulation and should erode the warm nose aloft. Thermal profiles turn into ra/sn, with some snow possible across even in the southern Upstate. However, precip rates should be very light by this point. Temps will hover mainly in the 28-35 deg range Sunday thru Sunday night, then rebound slightly on the back side of the system on Monday to the upper 30s to lower 40s. We have expanded the watch to include the GA and SC mountains, along with a tier of zones from Pickens to York County in SC, where climatologically in CAD events should get higher wintry accums. While the rest of the GA and SC Piedmont is still too low confidence for a watch, but may need an advisory once the event is within 24 hours. Given the upward trend in QPF. Impacts from the combination of what is expected to be a very wet snow, and icing in some areas, look to be significant. Very windy conditions are expected Saturday night and most of Sunday, which makes falling trees and power lines likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well, it feels like we have been following this for a month. But, we could be seeing some flakes in 24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 hours ago, BretWheatley said: This can't be right... ? 12 hours ago, NavarreDon said: Wanted to say a couple things about GSP. 1st off you have different Mets writing AFD’s and they have different perspectives. While they collaborate the lead forecaster has the most input. 2nd. This is essentially their 1st call map and will change at least 4 more times before the storm arrives. 3rd they are some of the best in the business but are human and prone to error (anyone remember the farmer reference in the AFD from the Christmas 2010 storm). I would much rather have them bust calling for less and getting more than vice versa. Take a breath and let’s see where it goes. . 1 hour ago, BretWheatley said: And.... we’re back! I did want to post this and just say remeber to take a deep breath when things don't go your way & there's still time for change. Things may change again but the chase is a huge part of the fun. Try to make sure your highs aren't to high & your lows aren't to low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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