BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6z GFS still a widespread 10-20 for most. Shows snow from hr 60-126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Early estimates continue to place snow amounts between 10 and 20 inches across the mountains, foothills Piedmont northwest of I-85. Local 20+ amounts are possible across higher east facing mountain and foothill locations. Dangerous freezing rain and sleet accumulations in excess of one half an inch continue to be possible with the high totals and therefore impacts between I-85 and I-40 outside of the mountains. Although latest model trends suggest areas closer to I-85 might have the most cause for concern. Good lord Almighty that some strong language! 10-20" NW of I85... Wow I just wonder how much fighting on the lower level some will need to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Big jump down on the CMC finally. Editing to say the FV3 looks.... spectacular. 48+ hours of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Some stats from 00Z Euro for KAVL: Probability of 12” of snow = 100% Probability of 24” of snow = 44% Whoa! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, HurricaneTracker said: Some stats from 00Z Euro for KAVL: Probability of 12” of snow = 100% Probability of 24” of snow = 44% Whoa! Sweet Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 48 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Interesting start times now with it being bumped up to Saturday AM. That aligns with what HT alluded to yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Some stats from 00Z Euro for KAVL: Probability of 12” of snow = 100% Probability of 24” of snow = 44% Whoa!Wow! Does it have an output for KFQD? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just ran a meteogram for Asheville and it is showing a model average of 4.5 inches (it was showing over 8 inches yesterday); don't know if it is out to lunch or really what to make of it (link below): [sleet-freezing rain cutting totals along with lower QPF?] http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kavl&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 That fv3 snowfall map looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Hope I didn't jinx anything by taking a personal day tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, Moonhowl said: Just ran a meteogram for Asheville and it is showing a model average of 4.5 inches (it was showing over 8 inches yesterday); don't know if it is out to lunch or really what to make of it (link below): [sleet-freezing rain cutting totals along with lower QPF?] http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kavl&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Ignore this. Look at QPF instead, then do your own 7:1 ratio. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 36 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Wow! Does it have an output for KFQD? . Yes sir! Probability of 12" of snow is 84%. Greater than 24" is 12% chance. BTW, Euro ensemble mean for KAVL is 22", with the upper end being 28" and the lowest being 15". Boone mean snowfall is 17", with a range of 7 to 27". Rutherfordton mean snowfall is 17" with a range of 9 to 27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Booked a 2 night stay in AVL, should be fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Im really worried about mixing for the foothills. Especially below 2500 feet mcdowell burke and Rutherford are all in an isothermal belt to me if the nam holds it screams sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Booked a 2 night stay in AVL, should be fun. Id go to bursville higher elevation US 19 takes you to 26 within a few miles hard to beat for a higher elevation the french broad valley gets dry slotted too to me its worth driving 20 mins up the road to somewhere along 19 in the high country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: Id go to bursville higher elevation US 19 takes you to 26 within a few miles hard to beat for a higher elevation the french broad valley gets dry slotted too to me its worth driving 20 mins up the road to somewhere along 19 in the high country. Generally with this setup, the French Broad River Valley only gets dry slotted around N AVL heading into Madison County. In Transylvania County heading into NW Henderson County, those people usually get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Generally with this setup, the French Broad River Valley only gets dry slotted around N AVL heading into Madison County. In Transylvania County heading into NW Henderson County, those people usually get hammered. I feel pretty lucky to live on the east side of Stoney Mountain in Henderson (near Hendersonville). From what I know, it's about 2800 feet up, I'm about 3/4ths the way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z NAM already trying to throw moisture our way at hr 30.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Not liking this Nam run...at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 We may have just gotten NAMed. Don't fall for it yet. Wait to see if GFS/UKMET adjust warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, HurricaneTracker said: We may have just gotten NAMed. Don't fall for it yet. Wait to see if GFS/UKMET adjust warmer. and the qpf was WAY lower as well, basically everything that could have went wrong on this run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Me after the NAM run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: and the qpf was WAY lower as well, basically everything that could have went wrong on this run did. Well, guess the QPF is still coming down at the end of the run. NAM is slower, which is also not good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well, that's the first time I've felt like that since this thing started. Onward and UPWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Me after the NAM run: Lol... and dry slotted ftw..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3K NAM looked really good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Let’s hope this is just the NAM being the NAM. We really haven’t had any of the models “lose” the storm yet and we are around that 3 day window where we typically get some funky runs. Might as well be the NAM that does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, AirNelson39 said: Let’s hope this is just the NAM being the NAM. We really haven’t had any of the models “lose” the storm yet and we are around that 3 day window where we typically get some funky runs. Might as well be the NAM that does it. That's where I find solace right now. If it were one of the global models, I'd have one foot over Looking Glass. However, it was the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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