WeatherHawk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 slow gentle flakes falling here ATM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Moderate snow with about 1/2" on the ground up here. 21.1°/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 No appreciable snow here, but I guess that could change overnight. I’m getting worried about this weekend, as my GF and daughter are leaving Sunday morning to go to Columbia. Anybody have any insight on how well maintained 421 to I77 is? And further south from there? She’s driving a Subaru, btw. I know we’re just starting to get a handle on this system and things could definitely change, but the trends point to a big snow here and a mess further down into the CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Boonelight said: No appreciable snow here, but I guess that could change overnight. I’m getting worried about this weekend, as my GF and daughter are leaving Sunday morning to go to Columbia. Anybody have any insight on how well maintained 421 to I77 is? And further south from there? She’s driving a Subaru, btw. I know we’re just starting to get a handle on this system and things could definitely change, but the trends point to a big snow here and a mess further down into the CLT area. It's way to early for specifics. If she is driving a Subaru then she should be fine but its everyone else that is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: It's way to early for specifics. If she is driving a Subaru then she should be fine but its everyone else that is the problem. Thanks for the reply Met, I appreciate it. I agree about all the others being most of the problem, and I know it’s going to change from here until the event. They’ll probably need to leave earlier than later in the morning to avoid the worst of it though. I’ll definitely keep an eye on the developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Boonelight said: Thanks for the reply Met, I appreciate it. I agree about all the others being most of the problem, and I know it’s going to change from here until the event. They’ll probably need to leave earlier than later in the morning to avoid the worst of it though. I’ll definitely keep an eye on the developments. Yeah probably earlier than later. It really depends on how this all evolves. A lot can and will change with this system from now until this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah probably earlier than later. It really depends on how this all evolves. A lot can and will change with this system from now until this weekend. Yep, I completely agree with that. We will just have to see how it evolves. Thanks again man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not a bad run on the Euro. Widespread 10-20 inches. 3 days out? I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, BretWheatley said: Not a bad run on the Euro. Widespread 10-20 inches. 3 days out? I’ll take it. It trended warmer and that's a concern if it keeps up. End of the nam (not very reliable) is very cold!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It trended warmer and that's a concern if it keeps up. End of the nam (not very reliable) is very cold!. Low 20s all the way into the upstate in looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, BretWheatley said: Low 20s all the way into the upstate in looks like. Mid level temps. 850's are not as cold and there is probably a warm nose between 850 and 700 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Overnight runs outside of Nam... Warmer...still have 3 days to go to crap, hopefully this thing sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Overnight runs outside of Nam... Warmer...still have 3 days to go to crap, hopefully this thing sticks. Anddddd 6z GFS says were back to normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Anddddd 6z GFS says were back to normal. Yeah it does. Widespread 15-20 inches for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good Morning folks! When I read this LT disco from GSP it does nothing but tell me you guys are in for some early season fun.....buckle up!!! .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 AM Wednesday: Above normal confidence exists for a significant winter storm across at least portions of the forecast area this weekend and possibly lingering into early next week. This is due to unusually good consistency between models and from run to run really for several days now despite the storm system now pushing into the southwest U.S. This has occurred in the past, especially for unusually significant storms. This storm may fall in the unusual significant category, especially across the mountains and foothills as it seems to have all the necessary ingredients for a high impact winter storm. This being said, below average confidence continues in the exact forecast details and related potential impacts as relatively minor shifts to the storm track or strength can lead to significant changes where and how long wintry precip sets up. High pressure will continue to nose into the Mid-Atlantic states Friday night behind the cold front before wedging down east of the mountains during the day Saturday, supporting colder and drier low levels, ahead of this weekends storm system. The storm is expected to slide along the Gulf of Mexico coastline Friday into Saturday before turning the corner near the Southeast U.S. coastline by late in the day Sunday. Increasing mid to high level clouds late Friday night into Saturday will likely assist the CAD in locking in cold temperatures with highs only in the 30s to around 40 or 15-20 degrees below normal. Increasing moist southerly flow enhanced by isentropic lift up and over the established cold dome at the surface will support increasing precip changes from the southwest through the day. Saturday night into Sunday may be the most significant precipitation of the storm as strong southeasterly 30 to 40 kt 850 mb winds originating from the Gulf of Mexico enhance moisture transport. This flow is also perpendicular to the cold dome continue to be supported by a 1030+ mb high to the north as well as the perpendicular to the mountains which will enhance lift and therefore precipitation intensity and totals across the region. Precipitation types across the region is the most challenging aspect of this storm as it appears areas along and northwest of I-85 will likely see at least some wintry precip to the mountains which may experience mostly snow and ice. Warmer air aloft (warm nose) may try to work into the region with the heaviest precipitation Sunday into Sunday evening leading to greater ice/rain potential at least briefly across the region. The duration of precipitation types will be critical as current liquid precipitation continues to fall in the 1- 2 inch range with uplope areas possibly seeing up to 3 inches. The take home message is that were are potentially dealing with a dangerous storm with significant snow and ice accumulation now likely across the mountains and foothills and possible anywhere along and northwest of I-85. Early estimates place a potential for snowfall amounts in excess of 6 inches across the mountains and NC foothills with ice accumulations possibly in excess of 1/2 of an inch across NC foothills/piedmont, especially north of I-40. Now is the time to put your winter weather plan together and prepare for this potentially significant upcoming winter storm. The low is expected to intensify fairly rapidly off and slow down or stall off the NC/VA coast Monday guidance continues to show a reinforcing short wave diving into the trough. This may support enhancement of precipitation on the backside of the storm early next week, leading to potentially additional wintry precip across the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I wouldn't be alarmed at all to see the models do this. Wobble a bit here and there only to come back a day or two to look great for use. Shoot I wouldn't be surprised if the mountains areas only saw snow from this since it's so early in the season. To me you have to be very cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GEFS mean still at 12.62 based on 0z data. So, still looking in good shape. Anything over 10 inches would be a win in my opinion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ncjoaquin said: GEFS mean still at 12.62 based on 0z data. So, still looking in good shape. Anything over 10 inches would be a win in my opinion. Oh yeah I agree especially for early December. I still think we are in the prime spot for this in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Oh yeah I agree especially for early December. I still think we are in the prime spot for this in WNC. You are right. This is probably bonus snow this early in the winter. Good to have you here Met1985! You are our backbone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ncjoaquin said: You are right. This is probably bonus snow this early in the winter. Good to have you here Met1985! You are our backbone. Gonna be a good one for you Jason! Wouldn't trade the beach move for anything but, times like these I wish I was still on New Stock Rd! You're right it's great to see 85 sticking his pretty mug in this thread! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: You are right. This is probably bonus snow this early in the winter. Good to have you here Met1985! You are our backbone. Yeah I absolutely agree with you on the early bonus snow especially with such an amped up system. This has been a strange Fall for yall down here. Thank you! I am excited to be back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: GEFS mean still at 12.62 based on 0z data. So, still looking in good shape. Anything over 10 inches would be a win in my opinion. last night euro totals. I feel that my area in the foothills is going to fight the warming from 925-850 very hard come game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Gonna be a good one for you Jason! Wouldn't trade the beach move for anything but, times like these I wish I was still on New Stock Rd! You're right it's great to see 85 sticking his pretty mug in this thread! If I could get hammered with a big snow , then be on the beach, that would be perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z FV3-GFS looks very nice. Will be interesting to see how it plays out w/ this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said: GEFS mean still at 12.62 based on 0z data. So, still looking in good shape. Anything over 10 inches would be a win in my opinion. Looks like it ticked back up to 15.51, higher QPF. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Slick drive into work this morning. Hate these little coatings on the road. Poor truck in front of me was sideways half the way down the hill on 321/421 towards TN. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 " of new snow this morning at 4400' in Wolf and it is coming down pretty good still. 18.3°/17 I feel... optimistic...about this weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I've got a solid 2.5 to 3 inches here. Just had a rather intense squall a few minutes ago that laid down about a half inch. It's 19.2 here with a few flurries at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Having fun reading the tread from last year's storm, same time. Seems the GFS is the on who got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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