BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like the 12z GFS is about to come in big for most of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Not going to lie, I'm still not buying the numbers, in terms of snowfall. temp profiles are close enough and are fluctuating enough even for us that things can change in a hurry. I did make an initial "snapchat" forecast with 6 to 8 for the storm, but I'm not budging from that til 2 days out, maybe 3, once we get the NAM and other short range models on board. Yall are Golden up there. The moisture is there for the hefty totals. Models are emphatic and the pattern at h5 screams what they are suggesting as an end result. They only way to screw the pooch on this one is thermal profiles. And Id say Im highly confident up your way thats nothing to fret. But I UNDERSTAND CAUTIOUS OPTIMISIM. Life lessons chasing snow in the SE. With tonights appetizer and this weekends potential Historic Mauler on top of an active November, you guys could end up with an all time great this season from start to finish. LR forecast are out of this world for second half winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 No need to post a pic since they are all over the main thread, but the 12z GFS created a few tears of joy. that was beautiful for us. *most* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: No need to post a pic since they are all over the main thread, but the 12z GFS created a few tears of joy. that was beautiful for us. *most* Truly beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said: Blue line is the operational (control) run of the GFS. The blue line is about where I would like to be. Around 5 or 6" is a good snow without too many problems; not fond of power outages and trees coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Um...this latest GFS run was incredible. And VERY VERY wet!! CAD wedge was intense. Throw out the snow maps because they are useless at this range...but focus on the QPF. MANY AREAS ARE WELL OVER 2.00" of liquid and there is a good portion of the mountains nearing 3.00" of liquid. You do the math... If this continues to be the forecast...y'all better start preparing. Get your winter kits set up and stocked. And your chainsaws ready. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z GFS, widespread 20-30 inches for all. Unbelievable. Won't buy in until it's showing this Thursday though... Don't remember seeing these totals run after run after run like this before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Um...this latest GFS run was incredible. And VERY VERY wet!! CAD wedge was intense. Throw out the snow maps because they are useless at this range...but focus on the QPF. MANY AREAS ARE WELL OVER 2.00" of liquid and there is a good portion of the mountains nearing 3.00" of liquid. You do the math... If this continues to be the forecast...y'all better start preparing. Get your winter kits set up and stocked. And your chainsaws ready. That is incredible. Absolutely incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster. After this run, I'm glad I pulled the trigger on getting a generator this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It’s been a lonnnnnnng time since we’ve had a storm as currently modeled. We are way overdue for an old fashioned HEAVY WET SNOW! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster. Yep, already warning my parents as they have an infant at the house to get out of Ashe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster. I'll be splitting firewood this afternoon; now how many times is said that firewood warms you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Moonhowl said: I'll be splitting firewood this afternoon; now how many times is said that firewood warms you... Twice. 3x if you have to stack it. Now get to splittin'...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's looking like we'll be able to add another 12z FC3-GFS under our belt as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: It's looking like we'll be able to add another 12z FC3-GFS under our belt as well. CMC, although a different solution, still throwing out a foot and a half. I'll take it to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: CMC, although a different solution, still throwing out a foot and a half. I'll take it to. At this point, is there any model not giving us a good thump? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: At this point, is there any model not giving us a good thump? Hell, even the ICON threw 10-16 inches our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: At this point, is there any model not giving us a good thump? NAVGEM barely gets moisture into Boone lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: NAVGEM barely gets moisture into Boone lol Yea, um, about that tendency to for over-suppression. All in all, we're sitting pretty no matter which model you look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Yea, um, about that tendency to for over-suppression. All in all, we're sitting pretty no matter which model you look at. I know I'm excited. Never before have I told friends that my first forecast would be 6-8 inches, and have that be conservative lol. there's still some cards on the table, like the CMC still showing the miller B changeover, but regardless we still get hit good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 LOL, parents text me back after I sort of warn them about the storm "Well, as long as we have power, we'll be alright." Well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At this stage it’s hard not to get excited about this potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: At this stage it’s hard not to get excited about this potential. For us (not everyone else in the main forum, just us) We're running out of ways quickly that this thing could go bust. Been almost a week since a model showed anything up or west of the Apps besides the Miller B's, and suppression is not a concern. Unless this makes a last minute straight north jog from Texas, I think we are in for a good one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Brad. P is on board rather early for him. Via his Facebook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 KAVL mean ticked up to 12.01 (highest up to 33.26 - phew) http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: KAVL mean ticked up to 12.01 (highest up to 33.26 - phew) http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Boone is up to over 15 inches on the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 One thing to note. On the GEFS, the mean snowfall has yet to go down since the whole storm is in picture, the average has climbed every single run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Brad. P is on board rather early for him. Via his Facebook. This is a carbon copy of the WPC's %'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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