2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

[jburns]

1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Per the FV3, the Southern Escarpment is going to be the bullseye. Especially when you factor in some upslope potential. Could be historic. 

Enjoy it while you can boys. I still like snow but age can put a different turn on it.

[Tyler Penland]

EPS mean still a good storm. One thing we won't be lacking is moisture.

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[Tyler Penland]

Boone and Asheville meteograms for those interested.

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[strongwxnc]

EPS mean still a good storm. One thing we won't be lacking is moisture.

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That’s look good. So much liquid. Hopefully more frozen then not...


.

[NavarreDon]

I used to love GSP's LT disco's like this one when I lived in Weaverville! Some will be disappointed but some are going to cash big time unless there is a dramatic change with this set up.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast from
the 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a little
slower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier in
QPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfc
low track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru the
event. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of a
mixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runs
suggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partial
thickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot of
snow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, but
if the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lot
lower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it still
looks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of the
mountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south of
I-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday,
as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold air
damming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc high
builds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest
precip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but that
time may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps will
be tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too
warm within the heart of the CAD wedge.

[strongwxnc]

I used to love GSP's LT disco's like this one when I lived in Weaverville! Some will be disappointed but some are going to cash big time unless there is a dramatic change with this set up.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast fromthe 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a littleslower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier inQPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfclow track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru theevent. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of amixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runssuggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partialthickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot ofsnow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, butif the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lotlower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it stilllooks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of themountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south ofI-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday,as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold airdamming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc highbuilds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviestprecip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but thattime may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps willbe tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be toowarm within the heart of the CAD wedge.

I like this quote from the AFD

“I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too
warm within the heart of the CAD”


I’m here in the lee laying in wait...


.

[MotoWeatherman]

Getting flurries here at 4650 on Beech Mtn.  

[SnoJoe]

3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Getting flurries here at 4650 on Beech Mtn.  

Same here. Old timers say that if you get flurries on a Monday, you'll get a monster gulf low snow storm on Saturday. 

[NavarreDon]

Same here. Old timers say that if you get flurries on a Monday, you'll get a monster gulf low snow storm on Saturday. 

Just enough time for Woodfin priorities!!!


.

[MotoWeatherman]

1 hour ago, SnoJoe said:

Same here. Old timers say that if you get flurries on a Monday, you'll get a monster gulf low snow storm on Saturday. 

Lol...I like it.  I did hear thunder 2 days ago....while in GA.  So game on. 

[NCSNOW]

Done lost our coach today. Lets not loose the weekend bomb. Had a big snow about this same time last year. Mtns should get some more snow showers tomorow night as well. 

[HKY1894]

0z euro is a monster


.

[Itstrainingtime]

Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? 

I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. 

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it!

[strongwxnc]

42 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? 

I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. 

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it!

421 should be okay as you travel off I77. However, depending not he depth of this storm, the counties 421 runs through might have a time keeping up with the totals that "could" fall. The sooner she gets down the better on Saturday. 

[ncjoaquin]

So, the last several snowstorms, me, HT, Moonhowl, Hunter, Fritschy/Tacoma and others in the AVL area all have had good snow totals no matter what was forecast, no matter whether the models were showing us being dry slotted, or precip reduced by being in the valley or not. But, there was a stretch in the 90's where Asheville got dry slotted on EVERY snowstorm. It would start snowing hard and then just cut off like someone had put a ceiling on the sky. I mention this because the GFS and to a certain extent the FV3 are showing AVL being dry slotted or precip being drastically reduced because of the valley effect.

The Euro does not show this, thankfully. We have had a solid year of over performing precipitation events. But, it is disconcerting to see that being shown to such an extreme. It is just Tuesday and I will take having the Euro on our sides. But, if we get deluged with 70 inches of rain all year and then get an under performing snowstorm that hammers everyone else, annoyed would not be a strong enough word. 

So, anyway, there is still a long way to go. There will be a thousand changes, but just something else to watch.

 

 

 

[BMulkey]

56 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? 

I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. 

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it!

I would want to arrive before sunset Saturday, though an hour or two after sunset would probably be ok. Timing isn't nailed down yet, but the heavier stuff seems to start Saturday night through Sunday and possibly the first half of Monday. There are bridges and significant elevation gain between Wilkesboro and Boone (the last 45 minutes of the drive).

[BretWx]

Euro and FV3-GFS both still show a sizable storm. I don't recall ever seeing this much agreement in modeling this far out, up until now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

59 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

421 should be okay as you travel off I77. However, depending not he depth of this storm, the counties 421 runs through might have a time keeping up with the totals that "could" fall. The sooner she gets down the better on Saturday. 

 

26 minutes ago, BMulkey said:

I would want to arrive before sunset Saturday, though an hour or two after sunset would probably be ok. Timing isn't nailed down yet, but the heavier stuff seems to start Saturday night through Sunday and possibly the first half of Monday. There are bridges and significant elevation gain between Wilkesboro and Boone (the last 45 minutes of the drive).

Thanks a lot! Good luck down there.  

[BretWx]

31 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Euro and FV3-GFS both still show a sizable storm. I don't recall ever seeing this much agreement in modeling this far out, up until now. 

Probably just jinxed it by buying a small generator, but last year's storm gave us about 10 inches and we lost power for 2 days. Didn't have one then and it was a mistake... Oh well! 

[BretWx]

Just for fun, this is what it looked like here during last year's December storm. 

[HurricaneTracker]

1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

So, the last several snowstorms, me, HT, Moonhowl, Hunter, Fritschy/Tacoma and others in the AVL area all have had good snow totals no matter what was forecast, no matter whether the models were showing us being dry slotted, or precip reduced by being in the valley or not. But, there was a stretch in the 90's where Asheville got dry slotted on EVERY snowstorm. It would start snowing hard and then just cut off like someone had put a ceiling on the sky. I mention this because the GFS and to a certain extent the FV3 are showing AVL being dry slotted or precip being drastically reduced because of the valley effect.

The Euro does not show this, thankfully. We have had a solid year of over performing precipitation events. But, it is disconcerting to see that being shown to such an extreme. It is just Tuesday and I will take having the Euro on our sides. But, if we get deluged with 70 inches of rain all year and then get an under performing snowstorm that hammers everyone else, annoyed would not be a strong enough word. 

So, anyway, there is still a long way to go. There will be a thousand changes, but just something else to watch.

 

 

 

This particular storm we are watching does not seem to favor a dry slot (at the moment).  It is a classic overrunning situation with warm moist air being thrown back into the CAD wedge (which is very likely underdone on GFS).  Then as the the low gets going off the coast we get the 2nd punch.

We really need to be focusing on the QPF from each model at this point rather than if it is showing snow/ice/sleet, etc.  Those details will work themselves out in due course.  But...needless to say the liquid equivalent of whatever falls is unlike anything we have seen since December 2009 event that crushed the mountains (and I personally had no electricity for 5 consecutive days).  Perhaps a bit too early to discuss impacts as everyone is wowed with the clown maps, but our infrastructure simply cannot handle 20-30" of paste snow.  More to come on that later this week.  For now, watch the QPF and watch the signals in the SKEW-T's for a deep isothermal layer between the surface and 850mb.  That's our classic heavy wet paste snow signal around here.

[NavarreDon]

2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Good morning everyone. My wife and daughters will be driving from Central PA to Boone this weekend. They'll be coming down I-77 and then I think it's 421 from there all the way into Boone. What is 421 like in winter events? Is this a route that is usually kept pretty clear? Also...as of right now, what does the timing look like for onset of the steadiest snow? 

I'm trying to figure out if and when it would be best for her to travel. It's just about 500 miles from up here and i'm hoping to maximize her mileage in good weather. 

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out with advice. I appreciate it!

Sounds like you've gotten some good info but wanted to add a couple things. Your family is driving into the most prepared region in the South for handling winter weather & winter road maintenance. That being said it is probably nothing like you're used to in Central PA. If the snow, IP, ZR, comes in hard the roads pay the price of not enough equipment or manpower to keep up. Your family is also coming into a region with many micro climates (wide variations of weather over short distances). Finally what kind of vehicle they are traveling in will be critical also ie: 4WD, AWD, FWD, RWD. The Mets @ GSP & RNK are some of the best in the NWS due to dealing with the areas wide variety of weather and their disco's should be watched closely. Boone is under the RNK watch but with a storm riding in from the SW you should get a great idea about timing from GSP. As has been pointed out the best advice, in the area they will be traveling, is to beat the storm in! Good luck & safe travels.

[NavarreDon]

I'm over 4 years removed from Weaverville & reading a LT disco like this still gets me excited! Some of you guys are gonna be living the dream come the weekend! (Jason i agree with HT, I see no reason why the Asheville crew would get dry slotted with this one)

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday: Confidence continues to grow that a
significant winter storm will impact portions of the forecast area
beginning sometime Saturday and continuing in earnest Sunday and
possibly evening Monday. However, the details this far out are still
sketchy at best as any small changes in the track or strength of the
storm system or parent sfc high pressure to the north could make the
different be mostly a cold rain or significant ice/snow. The
greatest confidence in significant ice/snow accumulations continues
to be across the mountains and east facing foothills where WPC
continues to advertise a 50-70 percent chance of winter storm
warning level ice/snow accumulations. The latest forecast blends the
EC and GFS, leaning towards the slower EC in line with neighboring
offices and WPC. Now for the forecast details as they stand now.

Zonal flow will continue into the extended time frame Friday with
surface high pressure continue to exert its influence across the
region into Saturday. The net result will be fair skies with
reinforcing cool and dry air Friday night as air damming or a wedge
sets up east of the mountains Friday night, which will likely
persist through the weekend. This will set the stage for the
potentially significant winter storm as wet bulb temperatures fall
into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the FA Saturday. An amplified
upper trough will push through the southern Plains states into the
Deep South Friday into Saturday with an attendant sfc low pressure
system riding the Gulf of Mexico coastline before moving off the
Southeast coastline Sunday. The CAD and increasing clouds and precip
Saturday into Sunday will lock in cold temps with lows only in the
20s to 30s and highs only in the 30s to low 40s this weekend. This
scenario looks to favor mostly wintry precipitation and possibly
mostly snow across the mountains with a mix bag of precipitation
across the NC Piedmont with some combination of rain or mixed
precipitation further south into the Upstate of SC and northeast GA.
While its too early to get into precipitation type details, wouldn`t
be surprised to see more wintry look to precip across the region
near onset and towards the end with more rain or ice in between when
the storm is closest and pushes warmer air at mid levels (aka warm
nose) into the region. The heaviest precip currently looks to take
place Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the wintry this
weekend, model guidance shows some potential for significant snow on
the backside of the storm late Sunday into Monday. Now is the time
to put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for this and
future potential winter storms.

 

[FlatLander48]

Not going to lie, I'm still not buying the numbers, in terms of snowfall. temp profiles are close enough and are fluctuating enough even for us that things can change in a hurry. I did make an initial "snapchat" forecast with 6 to 8 for the storm, but I'm not budging from that til 2 days out, maybe 3, once we get the NAM and other short range models on board.

[Orangeburgwx]

Seeing as how I'm 4 hours SE of the mountains, I only came here for one reason...

 

No matter how much snow you get, stay safe and have fun guys! I wish you all the best of luck.

[HurricaneTracker]

Just for fun, here is the snow plume diagram for KAVL from the 12/04 06Z GFS.  The mean is 12.01" of snow...low of zero, max > 30" (HA!).  But just another tool to consider.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

26 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Just for fun, here is the snow plume diagram for KAVL from the 12/04 06Z GFS.  The mean is 12.01" of snow...low of zero, max > 30" (HA!).  But just another tool to consider.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

 

December 09 redux.

[SnoJoe]

27 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Just for fun, here is the snow plume diagram for KAVL from the 12/04 06Z GFS.  The mean is 12.01" of snow...low of zero, max > 30" (HA!).  But just another tool to consider.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

 

What is the blue line?

[BretWx]

FWIW. 

[HurricaneTracker]

10 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

What is the blue line?

Blue line is the operational (control) run of the GFS.