Hvward Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 PM, Hvward said: Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds. Expand I feel like the surface maps the last couple runs of the NAM nest have warmed and the HP system is sliding a little too fast to the east than what would be ideal. Should we take into account the fact that models usually tend to erode the CAD too quickly in this instance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 PM, Hvward said: Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds. Expand To add to this, there are some "negative" factors working against ice accumulations. First is that the scenario is rain changing to sleet/freezing rain. It is very hard to accrete ice when the transition is warm to cold (whereas ice is easier to accrete starting out cold and then warming to a rain). There is just residual latent heat in the rain, even on tree branches, that must be overcome before freezing rain can even begin. Then there are the very heavy precip rates which are expected tonight during the peak window of maximum CAD. Heavy rates offset cooling and can actually lead to less ice accretion. Yes NAM and RGEM are cold. GFS is not. It has zero (!) freezing rain. NAM always seems to portray doomsday scenarios for ZR when reality is closer to GFS. Will there be pockets of freezing rain and ice accumulations? Sure. Widespread? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 PM, Hvward said: Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds. Expand Hey man hope all is well. How good is the wrf model 0z showed pockets of sub 850s and 700mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Oh and the 12Z NAM just came in a ton warmer at the surface. It has a very narrow window of sub-freezing surface temperatures between 1am and 4am before rapidly warming as the precip comes to an end. Overall, the system looks sped up to me. Less QPF and much less ice (even by NAM standards). 850 temps are above freezing from AVL southwest (and just barely below 0 northeast). NAM has consequently greatly scaled back the ZR ice accumulation forecast. Just about a non-event at this point. Interesting trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Avery County schools are dismissing early. Incredible. Mountain counties are getting reallllly bad for missing or dismissing over non events. Haven’t seen anything showing temps getting below freezing any sooner than 7-8pm if not later than that. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z 3k NAM totals. Still looks pretty rough on the mountains even if you reduce those totals. Very brief change to rain in the worst areas near the end of the event but it shows more wraparound snow than previous runs now. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dewpoint down to 32 from 40 just a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 7:15 PM, BretWheatley said: Dewpoint down to 32 from 40 just a little while ago. Expand That's a good dip your area closer to the blue ridge can get a lot of ice thank goodness its November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 HRRR is mostly snow/sleet on the mountain. Looks like fun. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 10:31 PM, Tyler Penland said: HRRR is mostly snow/sleet on the mountain. Looks like fun. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Expand How does the HRRR usually handle these situations? Do the soundings support the snow output shown on the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 10:53 PM, NC_WX10 said: How does the HRRR usually handle these situations? Do the soundings support the snow output shown on the maps? Expand No. Soundings support sleet and freezing rain. Elevation dependent which affects the depth of the cold layer. My experience is the HRRR does poorly in these setups. Just look at its runs today - all over the place from one run to another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Getting close - 33.4 with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 31.7/30.2 and rn/ip beginning to mix a little up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 It’s 33 here, waiting on the ice and sleet. I’m about 8 miles east of Boone, between Rutherwood and Deep Gap. I’m new here, but I’d love to be a part of the mountain crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 1:28 AM, Boonelight said: It’s 33 here, waiting on the ice and sleet. I’m about 8 miles east of Boone, between Rutherwood and Deep Gap. I’m new here, but I’d love to be a part of the mountain crew! Expand Welcome aboard, im heath btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 1:28 AM, Boonelight said: It’s 33 here, waiting on the ice and sleet. I’m about 8 miles east of Boone, between Rutherwood and Deep Gap. I’m new here, but I’d love to be a part of the mountain crew! Nice! I’m right in Boone myself! Welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 1:34 AM, McDowell_Weather said: Welcome aboard, im heath btw. Expand On 11/15/2018 at 1:38 AM, AirNelson39 said: Nice! I’m right in Boone myself! Welcome to the board. Expand Hey guys, thanks for the welcome! I do appreciate it. I come from the midlands of SC to this winter wonderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 1:44 AM, Boonelight said: Hey guys, thanks for the welcome! I do appreciate it. I come from the midlands of SC to this winter wonderland.Boy will it be a change of pace for you. How long have you been up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 1:46 AM, AirNelson39 said: Boy will it be a change of pace for you. How long have you been up here? Expand We moved up here in late March. It has been quite a change, for sure! It’s one that we wanted when we moved up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 This isn’t a banter thread though, so I’ll return it to the regular people. Just wanted to introduce myself and hope I can contribute to the community. 33° 8m E Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 2:08 AM, Boonelight said: This isn’t a banter thread though, so I’ll return it to the regular people. Just wanted to introduce myself and hope I can contribute to the community. 33° 8m E Boone Expand This is our own thread say whatever you want bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 1:44 AM, Boonelight said: Hey guys, thanks for the welcome! I do appreciate it. I come from the midlands of SC to this winter wonderland. Expand Welcome man! I moved to Asheville from the midlands the day of the flood and bought a house in Wolf Laurel last June. Just wait, winter is great up here! My name is Timm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Backside snow flurries/showers look possible for most everyone in WNC tomorrow evening per 0z 3km NAM. 850mb temps drop below freezing around 5pm with moisture streaming in from the W, then NW. Highest elevations could see a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 2:18 AM, McDowell_Weather said: This is our own thread say whatever you want bud. Expand GRRRR.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 2:36 AM, jburns said: GRRRR..........:) Expand Didn't expect to see you in here..... By the way just rain and 39 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 2:18 AM, McDowell_Weather said: This is our own thread say whatever you want bud.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 2:38 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Didn't expect to see you in here..... By the way just rain and 39 degrees.Lol. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Deck is slick and elevated surfaces have a glaze of ice in Todd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boonelight Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 2:18 AM, McDowell_Weather said: This is our own thread say whatever you want bud. Expand On 11/15/2018 at 2:24 AM, Buckethead said: Welcome man! I moved to Asheville from the midlands the day of the flood and bought a house in Wolf Laurel last June. Just wait, winter is great up here! My name is Timm. Expand Heath, Timm, good to meet you. I’m David. Timm, I lived in Forest Acres when the floods came. I’ve never witnessed such destruction. Forest Drive was a river. I’m so looking forward to winter here. 32° here with light sleet and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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