Buckethead Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Beat goes on from last night: Ski slopes ought to be licking their chops about an early start. I'm starting to get excited about this one. Time to get the tubes out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 It is really quiet in here considering we may have our first measurable snow in less than a week. Where is everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Buckethead said: It is really quiet in here considering we may have our first measurable snow in less than a week. Where is everyone? I'm biding my time, definitely not getting sucked in too early yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Would like to see a lot better orientation of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 8 hours ago, Buckethead said: It is really quiet in here considering we may have our first measurable snow in less than a week. Where is everyone? I am here...feel like it is a coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12z icon with what I believe is a more realistic picture with maybe some passing snow showers on the 14th. Fun to track, but I'm not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Yeah looks like a NWF only event to me. Encouraging seeing these gulf systems so early on though. 12z icon with what I believe is a more realistic picture with maybe some passing snow showers on the 14th. Fun to track, but I'm not expecting much.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12z GFS, with a much different look out west, but similar results. Except for the MOST favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 This setup is not a typical NW flow setup. It is primarily a system with cold air crashing in behind it. The flow behind the main batch of moisture is kind of a westerly flow. These setups are very hard to predict for the mountains because if you get a delay in the cold air it is a cold chasing moisture type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 See if I can help yall out: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Looks like a two wave ordeal per the Euro. First wave sets the stage with a 50/50 low and then the second wave moves in Thursday am from the Gulf. The two wave setup is the way Asheville will get anything more than a dusting from the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 54 minutes ago, Hvward said: Looks like a two wave ordeal per the Euro. First wave sets the stage with a 50/50 low and then the second wave moves in Thursday am from the Gulf. The two wave setup is the way Asheville will get anything more than a dusting from the pattern. Thats a nice size ice storm all of NW NC down the foothills 77 coridor in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Temp - 22.4 Partly Cloudy Wind - 16/G31 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Down to 18.6 this morning. I'm eating breakfast by the fireplace! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Glad I didn;t get too caught up with next weeks system, looks like trends have gone away from what we want. However, the oz GFS spit out this solution for the 15th, and the FV3 had a bit of a wintry solution, though not as pronounced as this. Short lived, but still have some hope for some wintry weather. Also...decent lake effect next weekend possibly showing up??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Glad I didn;t get too caught up with next weeks system, looks like trends have gone away from what we want. However, the oz GFS spit out this solution for the 15th, and the FV3 had a bit of a wintry solution, though not as pronounced as this. Short lived, but still have some hope for some wintry weather. Also...decent lake effect next weekend possibly showing up??? Get use to seeing that this winter. Plenty of moisture and a 1035 H in NY. You get that look in Jan and it’s lights out east of the blue ridge with the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Euro still advertising a wintery start with the second wave around some parts of WNC. Surface temps are below freezing as the precip begins. 850mb temps are warm but surface temps could support sleet for a couple of hours Thursday. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 7 hours ago, Hvward said: Euro still advertising a wintery start with the second wave around some parts of WNC. Surface temps are below freezing as the precip begins. 850mb temps are warm but surface temps could support sleet for a couple of hours Thursday. . Yeah the 12z shows around 0.5-0.6"QPF falling with surface temps below freezing. Should be interesting through mid-morning. Temps start off in the low/mid-20's and never get above 36 in Boone during the event. Cold, cold rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 12km NAM looking like a zr/ip event end to end.Also the 6z fv3 says hold on tight with several chances. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 12km NAM looking like a zr/ip event end to end.Also the 6z fv3 says hold on tight with several chances. Sent from my SM-G960U using TapatalkYeah NAM has been very interesting, especially considering it gets the job done with a 1034mb hp and the Euro shows a 1037mb hp in position as precip begins. Will be interesting to see if the high strengthens on the NAM on future runs. These are decent high pressures and could push enough cold air into WNC to keep things wintry for a while Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 12z NAM seems a lot more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 It was 40° here at 7am. 35.4°/31.2° and heavy rain currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 37 when I left the house with rain. Its 39 and raining on Fontana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Nice cold rain today.. would love a shield like this moving in around freezing! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just left my house at 4360' with a current temp of 41.4. At my office, 5 minutes away at 3225' it's currently 33.8. That's a pretty impressive drop in just 1000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Had some sleet this morning around 10a at 39°F as the precip moved in. Looks like the mnts/foothills are in for some more frozen stuff overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12 hours ago, strongwxnc said: Nice cold rain today.. would love a shield like this moving in around freezing! . yep...cold rain all day here in Boone and MBY...nasty day indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6z RGEM has me nervous. This doesn't change over for most of the forum though 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The 3K Nam shows a changeover to rain for basically everyone as the heaviest precip is rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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