BlunderStorm Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 Well it's certainly good to be back! Anyway, it would seem we have some more activity in the tropics to monitor starting with Kirk. 310 WTNT42 KNHC 221436 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center. Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward. The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 8.3N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 8.8N 25.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 9.3N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 9.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 9.6N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 10.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 11.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 12.5N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 Yes really glad WE ARE BACK as I tried to login since yesterday,,,that said Kirk is indeed out there and bears watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rescuedpup68 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 It seems to be on a similar track as Isaac. And Isaac encountered a lot of shear. I am learning so please be patient... so has shear decreased? Are environmental factors more favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 24, 2018 Author Share Posted September 24, 2018 14 hours ago, rescuedpup68 said: It seems to be on a similar track as Isaac. And Isaac encountered a lot of shear. I am learning so please be patient... so has shear decreased? Are environmental factors more favorable? Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 The Caribbean as a whole has been pretty unfavorable this year. Not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rescuedpup68 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 On 9/24/2018 at 9:25 AM, BlunderStorm said: Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development. Got bumped back up to 70%. Look like if it stays around 10N it might have a chance to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 I'm not sure if the convection is around the center of low pressure but there seems to be some impressive -80C cloud tops showing up on Goes 16 IR from the remnants of Kirk. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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