Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

[UMB WX]

What makes all the snow up there most impressive to me is the amount of system snow vs LES fluff.  The water content of that snowpack must be pretty robust.

 

Ninja!

[weatherbo]

It's F'n deep up here

[Stebo]

On 2/20/2019 at 11:11 PM, weatherbo said:

It's F'n deep up here

Yeah that is worrisome.

[mimillman]

On 2/19/2019 at 9:29 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Its one of the most frustrating winters in a while here. The end result still isnt disaster or anywhere near futility, but between the northern suburbs getting several surprise heavy bands that evaded us south of Detroit, and the heavy snows to the west and north (the upper peninsula is having an epic snowpack the last 2 months), its frustration for sure. As i said in another thread...only 2 of the previous 11 seasons had below average snowfall here, we were due. Doesnt mean im not going to complain lol. And likewise...just because Iowa and Minnesota are getting hit over and over and over again, considering theyve had several subpar snow seasons the last decade, i will not hold this epic stretch for them as a "you cant complain" card when future misses hit there. 

They’ve had a couple good ones in a row now. I’d argue the northern Indiana/central Illinois/Chicago crews have gotten the shaft the past several winters in a row. What’s even more frustrating is when your snow total is overstated time and time again by a certain airport 17 miles to my northwest...

[RCNYILWX]

They’ve had a couple good ones in a row now. I’d argue the northern Indiana/central Illinois/Chicago crews have gotten the shaft the past several winters in a row. What’s even more frustrating is when your snow total is overstated time and time again by a certain airport 17 miles to my northwest...

Pretty sure you're overstating futility there. Midway 3SW had 39.1" last year (more than ORD's 36.1) and will finish above normal for this season too with 38.3" so far, vs. 41.2" at ORD. Even if you're lower than MDW 3SW, I'd bet you're over 30" for this season, which is still near normal to date.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Pretty sure you're overstating futility there. Midway 3SW had 39.1" last year (more than ORD's 36.1) and will finish above normal for this season too with 38.3" so far, vs. 41.2" at ORD. Even if you're lower than MDW 3SW, I'd bet you're over 30" for this season, which is still near normal to date.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I understand where he's coming from but agree that he is overstating it a bit.  

Going back to the winter of 2015-16... considering it was a super Nino, the final result could've been worse imby.  Had the November storm which was respectable for the calendar but didn't get the huge pounding that ORD and north/west received.  The sleet storm in December was interesting even though I've come to hate sleet lol.  Then there was the late February storm, which focused on northwest IN.  Downtown Chicago struggled big time in the November storm and the February storm had the heavier snow just south.  All in all, that was a bad winter for the downtown area but a bit less bad here.

2016-17 had that awful futility streak during the winter even though the final total was not near a record low.  2017-18 was pretty forgettable imo outside of that stretch in early February.  This winter has been very ordinary so far.  Hopefully we get a big one yet, preferably targeting downtown and into northwest IN. 

 

[Chambana]

This winter has had more fog and 33 degree rain events than I can ever recall. Ordinary winter for these parts, the highlight by far was the -45 windchills in late January. Actually a chance this winter could end up slightly warmer than normal for here anyway. 

[DaveNay]

The 10 day is downright depressing. Sub zero temps should not be in the forecast for early March.

[RogueWaves]

11 hours ago, DaveNay said:

The 10 day is downright depressing. Sub zero temps should not be in the forecast for early March.

 

Must pay for our December to remember 

[Harry]

5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

 

Must pay for our December to remember 

 

Back here to say no more of this bs storm track nw of or into Michigan!

 

I think i need to post here more to get rid of this disgusting storm track we have had to endure this winter!

[mimillman]

Potentially below zero and bare ground. Pass on this winter. It’s been pretty terrible.

[madwx]

If it's March 15 and were still having high temps 20 degrees below average I'll start posting in this thread

[RCNYILWX]

Potentially below zero and bare ground. Pass on this winter. It’s been pretty terrible.

I'm sorry to keep harping on it, but the map posted on the main Feb thread shows your standards are pretty high. 125-150% of normal snowfall since January 1st is objectively not terrible. December 1st to early January objectively was terrible. Of course it's been better north and west of us this month and we've missed some fun. But it's been very active since mid January and we had a very good stretch of snow from the January 12th system through Feb 1 and close to normal snow this month. Plus one of the most significant ice storms downtown in years (decades?) on Feb 12th.

 

 

 

[mimillman]

8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm sorry to keep harping on it, but the map posted on the main Feb thread shows your standards are pretty high. 125-150% of normal snowfall since January 1st is objectively not terrible. December 1st to early January objectively was terrible. Of course it's been better north and west of us this month and we've missed some fun. But it's been very active since mid January and we had a very good stretch of snow from the January 12th system through Feb 1 and close to normal snow this month. Plus one of the most significant ice storms downtown in years (decades?) on Feb 12th.

 

 

 

I know there have been some good events, but for some reason it doesn’t feel that way. Perhaps it’s the comparison to areas just north and west, I just feel like we’ve been skipped over, as well as lower Michigan.

[RogueWaves]

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I know there have been some good events, but for some reason it doesn’t feel that way. Perhaps it’s the comparison to areas just north and west, I just feel like we’ve been skipped over, as well as lower Michigan.

My part of SMI has actually had it worse. That nice stretch from Jan 12 to Feb 1st didn't start here until the 18th, then was promptly washed away a few days later. This Nina-esque pattern here has resembled hard come-easy go vs the more typical easy come-easy go seen with a true Nina. If it wasn't for a rare snowy Nov, I'd be considerably below normal during MET winter.  

[RogueWaves]

In addition, we've not been in the jack-zone since the Dec 2016 storm. Getting fringed (see next event) for multiple seasons is taking it's toll on winter weenie morale, lol

[Baum]

8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm sorry to keep harping on it, but the map posted on the main Feb thread shows your standards are pretty high. 125-150% of normal snowfall since January 1st is objectively not terrible. December 1st to early January objectively was terrible. Of course it's been better north and west of us this month and we've missed some fun. But it's been very active since mid January and we had a very good stretch of snow from the January 12th system through Feb 1 and close to normal snow this month. Plus one of the most significant ice storms downtown in years (decades?) on Feb 12th.

 

 

 

Yes, it has been a good run. The persistent track directly over our area has sort of left us with a "what could have been" feeling even this weeks fronto set up just north sort of stings a bit. Was hoping for one last decent event before the cold air hits. But I do suspect it's going to go cold and dry and than I look for winter to ease off by mid month...which is fine by my standards. But since mid January it's been non stop tracking. Perhaps we can pull one more out before a hopefully early spring.

[Cary67]

Doubts about an early spring;guess that depends on your definition. I figure mid April is typical for sustained warmth.ie 50's Unfortunate cutter pattern didn't yield the results here it could have. Not sure how many winters yield that kind of pattern (2007/2008)so need to cash in when its there. Cold next couple weeks then moderation with a pattern that may set up like February just further west with the cold air and snow prospects.

[tuanis]

11 hours ago, mimillman said:

Potentially below zero and bare ground. Pass on this winter. It’s been pretty terrible.

This has been a particularly challenging winter just 35 miles to your north. It has really tested me and my house. We’ve lost power twice this winter, which never happened before. For two days during the November dump (when I had a brand new week old baby in the house) and the night in late January that the deep cold was pouring in on stiff winds. December was easy peasy. The frequency of events in January tested my snowblower - I have fired it up more this season than any since I bought it four years ago and it looks like I’m not done yet. We’ve had deep snow on two occasions, the deepest being about 20”. The dangerous cold seriously tested my furnace and bank account - set a new record high gas bill. We had limited ice here thankfully, but even the big wind event Sunday had me nervous about the mature trees surrounding my house. It’s been an especially active and difficult winter.

We have also had continuous snowcover since the first January event. We almost lost it during the early-Feb thaw, but managed to scrape by. I’m ready for some bare ground (just kidding!).

[hlcater]

The launch of the FV3 has been delayed in order to try and correct the significant cold bias.

[CoalCityWxMan]

7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The launch of the FV3 has been delayed in order to try and correct the significant cold bias.

Beat me to it

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

In addition, we've not been in the jack-zone since the Dec 2016 storm. Getting fringed (see next event) for multiple seasons is taking it's toll on winter weenie morale, lol

We were in the jackpot zone several times since that, however youve definitely had a better winter than us this year. Been a frustrating winter but i guess everyone gets their turn lol. Most of the areas that have had a great winter have had a lot more frustration than us in recent years. Still, it doesnt mean we cant complain lol.

[beavis1729]

18 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm sorry to keep harping on it, but the map posted on the main Feb thread shows your standards are pretty high. 125-150% of normal snowfall since January 1st is objectively not terrible. December 1st to early January objectively was terrible. Of course it's been better north and west of us this month and we've missed some fun. But it's been very active since mid January and we had a very good stretch of snow from the January 12th system through Feb 1 and close to normal snow this month. Plus one of the most significant ice storms downtown in years (decades?) on Feb 12th.

 

 

 

Of course my comments below not directed at you specifically.  And, I truly truly appreciate your contributions to the board and at LOT. 

With that said...this is the type of comment that drives winter weather lovers crazy.  I guess our standards are pretty high relative to climo...but that's because a climo DJF here is not "winter".  So, for people who love winter, they can't tolerate an average DJF.  Very simple. 

Total snowfall is only one of many metrics on which winter should be judged.  Sure, ORD is technically above normal snowfall...but there is no snow cover...and it has been that way for the majority of the winter.  That is what matters. And "very active" doesn't mean anything if most of the "active" part does not involve a wintry feel.  Winter is not event-driven; it's a season, a tenor, and a mood.  And that has not existed this winter in Chicago...and, to be honest, it very rarely does in any year.  This is even true this season in the northern suburbs, even though it has been a bit better than ORD and the city itself.  Sure, there have been a couple of decent snowstorms and the 2-day cold wave...but thaws have been way way way way way too frequent.  ORD has only had 22 days in DJF with 2+" of snow cover.  In other words, about 25% of the days.  That is pathetic and is not winter. Meanwhile, you go to Wausau WI (a mere 4 hours north by car) and they've had 48" of snow in Feb, with a current 30" snow depth.  Really not that far away as the crow flies.  

Hypothetically, if Dallas TX had their coldest DJF on record this season, it doesn't mean that Dallas had a wintry DJF. It just means they were colder and snowier than normal.  But that doesn't really matter. Winter is objective criteria, not "relative to climo".

I have a met degree from NIU and I know our horrific climo way too well, regardless of how much I don't accept it.  And I was fortunate enough to intern at LOT in 1995, during the July heat wave.  A great experience with great people.  I am saying this not because having a met degree matters a lot to the dialogue here...but to illustrate that, if anything, it makes the non-winters around here all the more painful because I realize too well how Chicago is on the southern edge of the winter gradient in North America.  It is maddening, especially because the entire public (and even the met comments in NWS AFDs) views things differently.  It's always "good news" when temps warm above freezing!!  Hooray for the public!!!!  You'd think people on a weather board would see things a different way.  Similar to a heat wave; I would root for a 105F/120F heat index day in July, just for the novelty...even though most people dread it.

Why is this so complicated for people to understand, especially on a weather board where people enjoy and love winter? I'm not even saying this in an angry way...but why can't anyone relate to it, and join the party? Not everything is logical.  If you're a Cubs fan, you rooted for 108 years in futility, until 2016.  But you still loved the Cubs and hoped for the best, despite what logic told you.  If you love winter, you want DJF to resemble winter, where you don't have to worry about thaws, lakes not freezing, snow melting, etc.  Chicago can be good for wintry events, but not winter. Huge difference.  It should be a matter of 5" or 15" snow cover in Feb...not "none vs. some". Gradually building up snow pack through the winter. Those kinds of things.  These are facts about what winter means.  It's not winter when there is the possibility of green grass and unfrozen lakes in DJF. In November or March, I get it...but not in winter.  Not very complicated.  I would love to see a Chicago resident live a winter in northern WI.  Not even the UP with a ton of snow...just a place that has a regular, dependable winter.  Yeah, I know I was supposed to be in hibernation...   

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Of course my comments below not directed at you specifically.  And, I truly truly appreciate your contributions to the board and at LOT. 

With that said...this is the type of comment that drives winter weather lovers crazy.  I guess our standards are pretty high relative to climo...but that's because a climo DJF here is not "winter".  So, for people who love winter, they can't tolerate an average DJF.  Very simple. 

Total snowfall is only one of many metrics on which winter should be judged.  And "very active" doesn't mean anything if most of the "active" part does not involve a wintry feel.  Winter is not event-driven; it's a season, a tenor, and a mood.  And that has not existed this winter in Chicago...and, to be honest, it very rarely does in any year.  This is even true this season in the northern suburbs, even though it has been a bit better than ORD and the city itself.  Sure, there have been a couple of decent snowstorms and the 2-day cold wave...but thaws have been way way way way way too frequent.  ORD has only had 22 days in DJF with 2+" of snow cover.  In other words, about 25% of the days.  That is pathetic and is not winter. Meanwhile, you go to Wausau WI (a mere 4 hours north by car) and they've had 48" of snow in Feb, with a current 30" snow depth.  Really not that far away as the crow flies.  

Hypothetically, if Dallas TX had their coldest DJF on record this season, it doesn't mean that Dallas had a wintry DJF. It just means they were colder and snowier than normal.  But that doesn't really matter. Winter is objective criteria, not "relative to climo".

I have a met degree from NIU and I know our horrific climo way too well, regardless of how much I don't accept it.  And I was fortunate enough to intern at LOT in 1995, during the July heat wave.  A great experience with great people.  I am saying this not because having a met degree matters a lot to the dialogue here...but to illustrate that, if anything, it makes the non-winters around here all the more painful because I realize too well how Chicago is on the southern edge of the winter gradient in North America.  It is maddening, especially because the entire public (and even the met comments in NWS AFDs) views things differently.  It's always "good news" when temps warm above freezing!!  Hooray for the public!!!!  You'd think people on a weather board would see things a different way.  Similar to a heat wave; I would root for a 105F/120F heat index day in July, just for the novelty...even though most people dread it.

Why is this so complicated for people to understand, especially on a weather board where people enjoy and love winter? I'm not even saying this in an angry way...but why can't anyone relate to it, and join the party? Not everything is logical.  If you're a Cubs fan, you rooted for 108 years in futility, until 2016.  But you still loved the Cubs and hoped for the best, despite what logic told you.  If you love winter, you want DJF to resemble winter, where you don't have to worry about thaws, lakes not freezing, snow melting, etc.  Chicago can be good for wintry events, but not winter. Huge difference.  It should be a matter of 5" or 15" snow cover in Feb...not "none vs. some". Gradually building up snow pack through the winter. Those kinds of things.  These are facts about what winter means.  It's not winter when there is the possibility of green grass and unfrozen lakes in DJF. In November or March, I get it...but not in winter.  Not very complicated.  I would love to see a Chicago resident live a winter in northern WI.  Not even the UP with a ton of snow...just a place that has a regular, dependable winter.  Yeah, I know I was supposed to be in hibernation...   

Wausau, Wisconsin did not have more than 1" of snow on the ground from December 9th all the way till January 22nd. Most days were 0 or T. Of course that is not normal, but neither is this February snow blitz they've been on. I'm sure if it had been in Chicago you would say, well this February is nice but look at how we had hardly any snow on the ground in December and January.   And every time I reply to one of your posts I always have to remind you trust me I like the same kind of Winter you do I'm just realistic.  I'm actually curious how I would grade a Winter personally such as the one that's gone on in say Minneapolis. February has been amazing but the remainder of Winter was terrible. I am always one about longevity of Winter over any specific gawdy numbers.  Where cyclone is I would have given the terrible month long stretch in December into January a bit of a pass, though it still would count towards the grade, but Minneapolis is even crazier. Very weak Winter then all time February record snow. We've set a lot of snowfall records here the past 10 to 15 years, but I cannot recall a Winter so heavy towards one month.

[UMB WX]

Sure hope we have a more relaxed pattern as we enter April.  Can't take more months on months of snow and rain and Lake, MI. influences with warm fronts setting up shop at the border.

[Hoosier]

16 hours ago, mimillman said:

I know there have been some good events, but for some reason it doesn’t feel that way. Perhaps it’s the comparison to areas just north and west, I just feel like we’ve been skipped over, as well as lower Michigan.

We (downtown into northwest IN) are an area that has missed out, relatively speaking.  On the whole it's been neither a particularly terrible winter nor one of the better ones.  Mediocre sums it up.  A lot of winters are like that. 

[Cary67]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We (downtown into northwest IN) are an area that has missed out, relatively speaking.  On the whole it's been neither a particularly terrible winter nor one of the better ones.  Mediocre sums it up.  A lot of winters are like that. 

After the cold suppression ends you know this will verify.

[tuanis]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I would love to see a Chicago resident live a winter in northern WI.

Wausau is about to break its all-time snowiest DJF winter total with tonight's snowfall... which is only 64.5". They get plenty of thaws and rainstorms up that way every winter. As mentioned, winter was lacking big time in Wausau up until late January. Same story even further north in Minocqua/Hayward. I'm not sure your idea of wall-to-wall wintry conditions with no thaws exists outside of the Intermountain West or parts of northern New England. Heck, even Bo has had some thaws/rain/icestorms this winter and a lousy December.
 

[tuanis]

17 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

I spent many years in Fort Kent, Maine...so far interior New England that they speak French and don't consider themselves as New Englanders - we have less thaws here than there.

I believe it, the absolutely enormous Atlantic Ocean is right there. I was thinking more along the lines of the Tug Hill (technically upstate NY, not New England) or northern VT, but I bet the same situation applies there too. Regardless... point was, there are few hospitable places in the lower 48 that fit his definition of winter. Winter is variable, and we're all subject to thaws every winter.

On another note, I was one of those hippies that descended on Loring AFB decades ago.  Beautiful up there.

[beavis1729]

51 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Wausau is about to break its all-time snowiest DJF winter total with tonight's snowfall... which is only 64.5". They get plenty of thaws and rainstorms up that way every winter. As mentioned, winter was lacking big time in Wausau up until late January. Same story even further north in Minocqua/Hayward. I'm not sure your idea of wall-to-wall wintry conditions with no thaws exists outside of the Intermountain West or parts of northern New England. Heck, even Bo has had some thaws/rain/icestorms this winter and a lousy December.
 

Yeah, I understand.  Sure, some thaws are ok...but not the intense and/or long-lasting thaws that wipe out a snowpack over and over and over again during DJF, and not thaws that melt the ponds & lakes once they finally freeze.  It's hard enough to get everything to go right to get a decent snowpack in the first place...and then it's always under threat of vanishing.  All that effort is wasted. Snow pack should gradually build though winter, with of course some setbacks...but not this crazy nonsense of 2", then bare ground, then 5", then bare ground, then 7", then bare ground, etc.

Not saying winter needs to be like the snow belts of the UP...but simply for seasons to be seasons...and having snow on the ground is a pretty important characteristic of what winter means.  Heck, even 75-85% of days with 2"+ of snow cover in DJF would be ok...doesn't need to be 100%. But not 25%, like this year.  The most important thing is being able to count on it regularly from year to year...like sunrises and sunsets...which unfortunately we can't do.  It's frustrating to have to count on a good pattern to have wintry weather; the calendar showing DJF should be enough.